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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a fight for the eurozone's future




There is little prospect of the German chancellor putting her hands up and losing the economic war she has been waging with her eurozone partners for two years now.

Austerity Rules OK might be the graffiti shorthand for the debt and public spending reduction programmes that have formed the core of the Merkel approach to keep the eurozone intact and the markets on side.

The message that came through strongly from France and Greece at the weekend was that austerity does not rule OK.

Mrs Merkel was effectively told to "get lost" by one of the new political leaders in Greece – Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras – who's plea was to end the "bail-out barbarism".

Mrs Merkel or the markets are more likely to tell Greece to "get lost"

"A Greek eurozone exit is on the cards although the probability and timing of such an event is uncertain," said Tristan Cooper, sovereign debt analyst at Fidelity Worldwide Investment.

The election results were hardly a surprise for either the markets or European leaders.

Millions of voters decided they preferred to be travelling along the growth road rather than continue to experience the bumpy ride along the austerity track that has cost them jobs, money and resulted in misery for many.

The gulf between political leaders delivering the medicine and the voters having difficulty in swallowing it has become wider and reached the point where it is proving indigestible.

The bail-out programmes that have become the cornerstone of eurozone recovery have rapidly become millstones because they hit voters where it hurts, in the pocket.

David Cameron, hardly a disinterested bystander, feels that the eurozone has barely reached midpoint between downturn and recovery.

Brussels disagrees but the eurocrats have their own agenda and have been anxious to encourage the growth school of recovery.

But providing a mixture of austerity and growth that would keep the eurozone intact and the markets happy is comparable to seeing pigs take to the sky.

Markets have been making sympathetic noises about the growth case but they have exercised Merkel-style discipline in keeping tabs on any attempts to stray from fiscal salvation. Ask Spain and Holland.

François Hollande is well aware of the risks he would be taking if he went too far in redrafting the Nicolas Sarkozy manifesto, while markets went a long way in leading to a new French president before one arrived.

The expectation or the hope is that Mr Hollande will ditch part of his radical baggage. He cannot afford to be too radical because as Mr Normal he has built up expectations among his "normal" supporters.

Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy said: "The markets will remain suspicious of Mr Hollande.

"His programme gives investors reasons to be even more concerned about France's creditworthiness."

But can Mrs Merkel help and accept his demands for changes to the fiscal pact? She says she would welcome Mr Hollande with "open arms".

Whether the arms are only slightly or wide open will determine whether she is willing to see some tinkering done.

She cannot afford to be too generous because of the fragility of her coalition, German public opinion and market makers worried about any policy drift.

The danger is that a shift could well provide the wrong signals and encourage the bail-out countries to relax. And, if the recovery element in any revision fails to deliver, the problems of euroland will become even deeper and more intractable.

The seeds of a break-up were sown at the start of the crisis and on the current evidence there is no way that Greece can retain its euro membership. Athens has drifted into no man's land and there is no Heracles ready to come to the rescue.

The French-German relationship remains key but all the signs are that the euro's players will try to give themselves more time to find a way out of the economic mess. That could be fatal.

The Telegraph


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