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Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Marc Faber Interview about Keynesian Clowns, Middle East to Blow Up, and Money Printing

Preparing for massive civil war and Re-Education Camps






By: Devvy
May 8, 2012
NewsWithViews.com
“No nation ever did nor ever can retain its liberty after the loss of the sword and the purse.” -- Patrick Henry

The past few days the Internet has been burning up with these stories:
"A shocking U.S. Army manual that describes how political activists in prison camps will be indoctrinated by specially assigned psychological operations officers contains numerous clear references to the fact that the policies do apply domestically to U.S. citizens."

Why this would shock anyone who has been active in fighting the totalitarian thugs in Washington, DC, is beyond me. Let me once again cite this from many of my past columns that should have been a warning to wake up:

"1987: Then U.S. Attorney General William French Smith blew the whistle on a fairly low ranking Marine officer by the name of Oliver North. According to Smith, Lt. Col. Oliver North directly helped draft a plan in 1984 to impose martial law in the United States in the event of an emergency. This secret plan would suspend the U.S. Constitution and turn over control of the government to the little known agency at that time: FEMA. This plan would appoint military commanders to run state and local governments. Implementation of this plan would have been triggered by violent and wise spread internal dissent, disagreement with government policy or national opposition to any U.S. military invasion abroad. Essentially, it amounted to a complete and total suspension of the U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights.

"Investigators who uncovered this plan believe that between 1983 - 1986, North's office was the 'central command center' for this informal secret structure which involved more than the illegal sale of arms to Iran and illegal funding of the underground war in Nicaragua under President Ronald Reagan. "Lifers" in the military were shocked, saying at the time that no Lt. Colonel is ever given the kind of power North was apparently given within this secret structure. So great was his authority, he could have the orbits of sophisticated satellites altered to follow Soviet ships around the world or launch high-flying spy aircraft on secret missions. Some even compared this whole operation as eerily similar to the one portrayed in the movie, Clear and Present Danger, starring Harrison Ford (1994).

"North wasn't alone in this secret structure. Others included Reagan's closest advisers: U.S. Attorney General Edwin Meese, CIA Director William Casey and National Security Adviser William Clark. Congressional investigators at the time were shocked by how far along this secret structure and planning had progressed. Arthur Liman, who was the chief counsel of the Senate's Iran-Contra committee stated in a memo that Oliver North was at the center of what he called a "secret government within a government." Prior to those hearings, Liman wrote that a policy decision made at the highest levels during the Iran Contra scandal "...reveals the whole secret government within a government, operated from the Executive Office Building by a lieutenant colonel with its own army, air force, diplomatic agents, intelligence operatives and appropriations capacity."

Think Ronald Reagan didn't know what North was doing?
Section 1-3 of that Army Training Manual cited in the first link above talks about military and civilian internees. If you read the entire Contents section it appears to be written for overseas operations. The designation CI (civilian internee) is used in the charts. No doubt we'll hear all sorts of protestations by government lackeys this doesn't apply to you and me. Anyone who believes anything coming out of Washington, DC, anymore is either in denial or a damn fool.
Then we have this one:

"In a riveting interview on TruNews Radio, Wednesday, private investigator Doug Hagmann said high-level, reliable sources told him the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is preparing for “massive civil war” in America. Folks, we're getting ready for one massive economic collapse,” Hagmann told TruNews host Rick Wiles. “We have problems . . . The federal government is preparing for civil uprising,” he added, “so every time you hear about troop movements, every time you hear about movements of military equipment, the militarization of the police, the buying of the ammunition, all of this is . . . they (DHS) are preparing for a massive uprising. "Hagmann goes on to say that his sources tell him the concerns of the DHS stem from a collapse of the U.S. dollar and the hyperinflation a collapse in the value of the world's primary reserve currency implies to a nation of 311 million Americans, who, for the significant portion of the population, is armed."

Can you believe Hagmann about his "high-level, reliable sources"? Not according to Debbie Schussel:

Northeast “Intelligence” Network or Northeast Plagiarism Network?

"The old adage says that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. But actually, that's not always true. In the world of writing and research, imitation is the most insincere form of armed robbery. But, at least in a real armed robbery, you usually see the guy with his gun and you know he is stealing from you. With plagiarists, they just steal your hard work behind your back. That was the case with the so-called Northeast Intelligence Network a/k/a NEIN a/k/a HomelandSecurityUS.com and its main operator, Douglas J. Hagmann, who on Monday, ripped off something I wrote–passing it off as the work of himself and his site's “investigators,” who apparently don't even exist. If the intelligence and terrorism expertise business is a matter of stealing the work of others and passing it off as your own, then I guess he's good at it."

I don't know those individuals, but what I do know is none of this is new - except the Department of Fatherland Security. A draconian enforcement arm for the traitors working to destroy this republic, kissed and blessed by your incumbent in the Outlaw Congress and mine. When I say not new, the shadow government has been planning for civil unrest for a long time.
As the economy continues to tank, millions more unemployed and millions more Americans see everything they've ever worked for blown away like a puff of smoke, the powers who really control our lives know things could get messy. No one in their right mind wants that, but between the agitators, who I believe are paid by the government, and the jackass fools in the Occupy Movement, very likely could set things off. That would set the government's propaganda machine into overdrive with you and me as the target.

Read this essay I scanned and have linked to over and over trying to get people to see what was/is coming down the pipeline:
'Our civilian-military face-off' (Sacramento Bee, November 30, 1997):
"Bill of Rights No Obstacle for the [Marine] Corps. This piece exposed the mindset way back then that at some point due to: "...the rising potential for civil disobedience within the inner cities it is 'inevitable' the U.S. military will be employed more often within American borders." Read on: "The next real war we fight is likely to be on U.S. soil." That huge essay goes on to talk about military operations against Americans right here at home - in your state, in your town.

In 1999, another report, which I have and scanned, is titled Homegrown Extremists, International Association of Under Cover Officers. That report covers: Know Your Enemy - Who Are They? How did it get this way? Recruiting and evolution of extremists; public meetings, pro-life movement, churches. Conspiracy theories: The New World Order, the Federal Reserve and so forth. You can read it all here; the instructors are listed on page two.

I am fully aware that the Department of Fatherland Security has ordered more than 750 million rounds of ammunition over the past few years as well as other alphabet soup agencies.
I also continue to get the constant barrage of emails about gun grabbing efforts, how the IRS has the right to take away your guns and on and on and on.

Does anyone ever do anything about it? Sure: "Send your donation now to protect your Second Amendment rights!!!" That is the ever constant mantra from organizations that depend on the never ending fight to protect the Second Amendment. It's their paycheck. There's no money in the cure, only the treatment. Remember that.

The solution to all of this is still there and continues to be ignored while everyone keeps on whining.

Aw, gee, Devvy, we're just trying to fight the gun grabbers in Washington. Well, hasn't it occurred to folks by now that all that fighting ain't fixing the problem?
The only solution is the constitutional militia. Not private militias, but the militia as stated in the Second Amendment "...being necessary to the security of a free State..". As I have written before, there are a lot of private militia in this country doing great work. Dedicated Americans training to help law enforcement with natural disasters and things of that sort. However, it has to be your state legislature that writes the statute for your state and gets your governor to sign it into law and if vetoed, override the veto.

I don't care how busy you are, so am I. Like millions of other fellow Americans, I have given up fun and leisure to learn the solutions, not more Band Aids. Reading is time consuming, but it's how we all can learn the truth:

 The Constitutional Militia, Slavery, & Contemporary "Gun Control"
 "The Militia of The Several States" Guarantee the Second Amendment
 True vs False Militia and Why the Difference Matters

To help everyone because of time constraints, I did put some of Dr. Edwin Vieria's columns on the militia on a CD so you can listen in your car during your commute to work or travels. You can download that CD here for free; make copies and hand them out at gun shows, group meetings and to family and friends.
Get Edwin's book, Constitutional "Homeland Security," Volume One, The Nation in Arms. It's not a huge tome, but you will learn as I did the true meaning of the Second Amendment. Cost is $19.95; VA residents add 5% tax. Send to: Edwin Vieira, 52 Stonegate Court, Front Royal, VA 22630.

For those who find a DVD easier for them, order The Purse and The Sword: "This seminar featuring Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. is the single greatest presentation regarding the Constitutional remedies and powers available to both the people and the national government to deal with our economy and homeland security challenges. Dr. Vieira presents his "visual Constitution" to make plainly clear what should and must be done for our nation to deal with these present and ever-increasing crisis."

It is one of the most powerful tools I've ever seen and every Tea Party chapter, 9/12 groups and other patriotic groups should view. 4 DVD's, 8 1/2 hours. It's also THE one thing you need to send to your state representative because that is where the constitutional militia will be reconstituted. Not by the NRA. If money is tight, split the cost with like minded patriots, but get it.

SB 1083 was in the hopper out in Arizona this year: "Would establish the Arizona State Guard, a volunteer military force under the control of the Governor, for the purpose of "securing the safety and protection of the lives and property of the citizens of this state." Their legislature has gone out of session; the bill never made it. If you live in Arizona, you might wish to join up with the Arizona Citizens Defense League - they are growing strong and they are active.

The only thing that is going to get state legislators to realize our very survival depends on reconstituting the constitutional militia is boots on the ground. Instead of wasting more time and money "fighting the gun grabbers", every gun owner must understand that only massive heat directed at your state representative and senator is going to get this done. That means opening a dialogue with him/her. Try to get a meeting and sit down with your representative as a group. Even if your state legislature is out of session, go to your state representative's web site. Many of them list their home phone. If not, call their local district office. Invite him/her to a breakfast or lunch or meeting.

Give your representative the CD with Edwin's columns and ask he/she to listen to it and you'll get back to them. Follow up is critical. If you can, order a copy of the Purse and Sword. Hand deliver it to your state representative and make it politely understood that if he/she wants to get reelected in November, this has to be a top priority for the 2013 session and you will hold them accountable.

If you are armed with the facts and present them - not as an attempt to go to war with the General Government because it's not - but from a constitutional perspective, it will go a long way towards erasing propaganda about the word militia.
The Second Amendment:

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

There was a reason the framers of the Constitution worded the Second Amendment as you see above. Until I began reading Dr. Edwin Vieria's scholarly and thoroughly researched columns, I really did not understand the brilliance of that one sentence.

A state cannot be free when the General Government continues to send their thugs inside the state terrorizing citizens over things like raw milk or "laws" that allegedly give them the "right" to arrest and detain citizens under the vile "Patriot" Act and subsequent draconian laws. Nor can the people of any state be free when local law enforcement turn into thugs who use tazers on handicapped folks, the elderly and stomping on your God-given rights just because they wear a badge.

Stress this fact to your state legislator: The legislatures can't keep fighting every "law" that comes out of Washington, DC, further eroding our rights, liberty and freedom. Quit trying to climb a sand dune. The solution is right there.

No more expensive lawsuits to fight off one "law" after another either from the state or the Outlaw Congress from taking away your guns.I'm sick to death of my email box filing up with emails that Marxist Hillary Clinton and the communist UN are going to grab your guns - always followed by twenty exclamation marks. Treaties cannot over ride the U.S. Constitution. It's up to the states to enforce that legal fact because the states created the General Government. If your state rep and senator doesn't have the courage to stand up for your rights and your state, boot them out of office in November.

At least some senators in Arizona's legislature understand the problem, but it's not enough. Time is not on our side. Are you one of the warrior class or just someone who keeps forwarding emails about the problem?

Are we going for the only solution or is everyone just going to continue wringing their hands?



U.S. to Continue Pressing for Assad’s Resignation




The United States will continue its efforts to make Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, the country’s envoy to the UN, Susan Rice, said.

"The United States remains focused on increasing the pressure on the al-Assad regime and on al-Assad himself to step down," she said, adding that it was a legitimate aspiration of all Syrian people.

She said al-Assad’s resignation will be in line with the six-point plan by UN and Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan, because the plan envisages democratization of the country’s political system, which should eventually result in the incumbent government’s resignation.

"It is plain that the Syrian regime has not implemented fully any of the six points," Rice added.

According to western media reports, Annan was pessimistic during the video linkup with the UN Security Council on Tuesday night, saying the Syrian authorities were not complying with the ceasefire terms, mass arrests continue and the Syrian army fires heavy artillery at civilians.

A diplomatic source told AFP that Annan is set to visit Syria in the next few days. The exact date of his visit was not disclosed.


RIA Novosti

Eruption Update for May 7, 2012: Popocatépetl, Iliamna, Lokon-Empung and a Pair of Japanese Volcanoes







Popocatépetl: The Mexican volcano is still churning away (see above). Thus far, most of the activity has been subplinian plumes from the crater area as the new magma rises and fragments, but Mexican officials are not taking any chances. They will be distributing almost half a million dust masks to people living near the volcano if/when a larger explosive eruption occurs that could drop significant ash across much of the area. You can see what is going on at Popocatépetl on the CENAPRED webcams for the volcano.

Iliamna: We haven’t heard much from Iliamna in the past month or so after the volcano was downgraded to Yellow Alert status by AVO after a period of increased seismicity and degassing. The seismicity was reported to be back on the upswing at the end of last week according to the Alaska Dispatch (who looks to be getting into the game of webicorder watching). However, this blip (if real) didn’t cause AVO to change the status of Iliamna as the latest update just mentions seismicity at the volcano is “slightly above background”. Iliamna has a webcam as well as a webicorder so you can follow along at home.

Lokon-Empung: Another volcano that has been quite active is Lokon-Empung in Indonesia. Thevolcano had an explosive eruption earlier last week, producing a 2.5 km / 8,200 foot plume. Although evacuations have not been called yet, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) has begun to set up evacuation centers in case the activity increases. Seismicity has been increasing at Lokon-Empung since last week’s eruption, but the alert status (Level III) is unchanged.

Iwo Jima (Ioto): I haven’t been able to find too much in the news about the activity at Japan’s Iwo Jima (Ioto), however Eruptions reader Sherine did find some images of the activity at Iwo Jima, along with images of potential submarine activity at Fukutoku-Okanoba (see below or the top two rows of images on the previous link). As for descriptions, last week’s Global Volcanism Program Weekly Volcanic Activity Report mentions that a new fumarole has opened at Iwo Jima as well.


Wired

Fema Camps and Gun Grabbing Troops, The Storm is Coming

The Countdown To The Break Up Of The Euro Has Officially Begun




The results of the elections in France and Greece have made it abundantly clear that there is a tremendous backlash against the austerity approach that Germany has been pushing.  All over Europe, prominent politicians and incumbent political parties are being voted out.  In fact, Nicolas Sarkozy has become the 11th leader of a European nation to be defeated in an election since 2008.  We have seen governments fall in the Netherlands, the UK, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Greece.  Whenever they get a chance, the citizens of Europe are using the ballot box to send a message that they do not like what is going on.  It turns out that austerity is extremely unpopular.  But if newly elected politicians all over Europe begin rejecting austerity, this puts Germany in a very difficult position.  Should Germany be expected to indefinitely bail out all of the members of the eurozone that choose to live way beyond their means?  If Germany pulled out of the euro tomorrow, the euro would absolutely collapse, bond yields for the rest of the eurozone would skyrocket to unprecedented heights, and without German bailout money troubled nations such as Greece would be headed directly for default.  The rest of the eurozone is absolutely and completely dependent on Germany at this point.  But as we have seen, much of the rest of the eurozone is sick and tired of taking orders from Germany and is rejecting austerity.  A lot of politicians in Europe apparently believe that they should be able to run up gigantic amounts of debt indefinitely and that the Germans should be expected to always be there to bail them out whenever they need it.  Will the Germans be willing to tolerate such a situation, or will they simply pick up their ball and go home at some point?
Over the past several years, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have made a formidable team.  They worked together to push the eurozone on to the path of austerity, but now Sarkozy is out.
Francois Hollande, the new French president, has declared that the financial world is his "greatest enemy".
He may regret making that statement.
One of the primary reasons why Hollande was elected was because he clearly rejected the austerity approach favored by the Germans.  Shortly after winning the election in France, he made the following statement....
"Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option"
Hollande says that he wants to "renegotiate" the fiscal pact that European leaders agreed to under the leadership of Merkel and Sarkozy.
But Merkel says that is not going to happen.  The following Merkel quotes are from a recent CNBC article....
"We in Germany are of the opinion, and so am I personally, that the fiscal pact is not negotiable. It has been negotiated and has been signed by 25 countries," Merkel told a news conference.
"We are in the middle of a debate to which France, of course, under its new president will bring its own emphasis. But we are talking about two sides of the same coin — progress is only achievable via solid finances plus growth," she added.
So instead of being on the same page, Germany and France are now headed in opposite directions.
But if the French do not get their debt under control, they could be facing a huge crisis of their own very quickly.  The following is from a recent article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard....
“They absolutely must cut public spending and control the debt,” said Marc Touati from Global Equities in Paris. “It will soon be clear that we are in deep recession. If they don’t act fast, interest rates will shoot up and we will have a catastrophe by September,” he said.
Without German help, France is not going to be able to handle its own financial problems - much less bail out the rest of Europe.
Germany is holding all of the cards, but much of the rest of the eurozone does not seem afraid to defy Germany at this point.
In Greece, anti-bailout parties scored huge gains in the recent election.
None of the political parties in Greece were able to reach 20 percent of the vote, and there is a tremendous amount of doubt about what comes next.
New Democracy (the "conservatives") won about 19 percent of the vote, but they have already announced that they have failed to form a new government.
So now it will be up to the second place finishers, the Syriza party (the radical left coalition), to try to form a new government.
Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the Syriza party, is very anti-austerity.  He made the following statement the other night....
"The people of Europe can no longer be reconciled with the bailouts of barbarism."
But at this point, it seems very doubtful that Syriza will be able to form a new government either.
PASOK, the socialists that have been pushing through all of the recent austerity measures, only ended up with about 13 percent of the vote.  In the 2009 election, PASOK got 44 percent of the vote.  Obviously their support of the austerity measures cost them dearly.
So what happens if none of the parties are able to form a new government?
It means that new elections will be held.
Meanwhile, Greece must somehow approve more than 11 billion euros in additional budget cuts by the end of June in order to receive the next round of bailout money.
Greece is currently in its 6th year of economic contraction, and there is very little appetite for more austerity in Greece at this point.
Citibank analysts are saying that there is now a 50 to 75 percent chance that Greece is going to be forced to leave the euro....
Overall, the outcome of the Greek election shows that it will be very difficult to form a viable coalition and to implement the measures required in the MoU. Particularly, the identification of the 7% GDP of budget savings for 2013 and 2014 by the end of June looks very unlikely to us. As a consequence, in a first step, the Troika is likely to delay the disbursement of the next tranche of the programme. Note that for 2Q 2012, disbursements of €31.3bn from the bailout programme are scheduled. If Greece does not make progress, in a second step, the Troika is likely to stop the programme. If that happens, the Greek sovereign and its banking sector would run out of funding. As a consequence, we expect that Greece would be forced to leave the euro area. With the outcome of the election, to us the probability of a Greek exit is now larger than our previous estimate of 50%, and rises to between 50-75%. However, even after the elections in Greece, France and Germany, we regard the probability of a broad-based break up of the monetary union as very low. We continue to expect that in reaction to Greece leaving the euro area, more far-reaching measures from governments and the ECB would be put in place.
But if Greece rejects austerity that does not mean that it has to leave the eurozone.
There is no provision that allows for the other nations to kick them out.
Greece could say no to austerity and dare Germany and the rest of the eurozone to keep the bailout money from them.
If Greece defaulted, it would severely damage the euro and bond yields all over the eurozone would likely skyrocket - especially for troubled countries like Spain and Italy.
If Greece wanted to play hardball, they could simply choose to play a game of "chicken" with Germany and see what happens.
Would Germany and the rest of the eurozone be willing to risk a financial disaster just to teach Greece a lesson?
But Greece is not the only one that is in trouble.
As I wrote about recently, the Spanish economy is rapidly heading into an economic depression.
Now it has come out that the Spanish government is going to bail out a major Spanish bank.  The following is from a recent Bloomberg article....
Rodrigo Rato stepped down as head of the Bankia group as a government bailout loomed after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy retreated from a pledge to avoid using public money to save lenders.
Rato, a former International Monetary Fund managing director, proposed Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri, ex-president and chief operating officer of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), as Bankia executive chairman, he said in a statement today in Madrid. The government plans to inject funds into the lender by buying contingent-capital securities, said an Economy Ministry official who declined to be named as the plan isn’t public.
But this is just the beginning.
Major banks all over Europe are going to need to be bailed out, and countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain are going to need huge amounts of financial assistance.
So does Germany want to keep rescuing the rest of the eurozone over and over again during the coming years?  The cost of doing this would likely be astronomical.  The following is from a recent New York Times article....
Bernard Connolly, a persistent critic of Europe, estimates it would cost Germany, as the main surplus-generating country in the euro area, about 7 percent of its annual gross domestic product over several years to transfer sufficient funds to bail out Europe’s debt-burdened countries, including France.
That amount, he has argued, would far surpass the huge reparations bill foisted upon Germany by the victorious powers after World War I, the final payment of which Germany made in 2010.
At some point, Germany may decide that enough is enough.
In fact, there have been persistent rumors that Germany has been very quietly preparing to leave the euro.
A while back, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party approved a resolution that would allow a nation to leave the euro without leaving the European Union.
Many believed that this resolution was aimed at countries like Greece or Portugal, but the truth is that the resolution may have been setting the stage for an eventual German exit from the euro.
The following is an excerpt from that resolution....
"Should a member [of the euro zone] be unable or unwilling to permanently obey the rules connected to the common currency he will be able to voluntarily–according to the rules of the Lisbon Treaty for leaving the European Union–leave the euro zone without leaving the European Union. He would receive the same status as those member states that do not have the euro."
Most analysts will tell you that they think that it is inconceivable that Germany could leave the euro.
But stranger things have happened.
And Germany has made some very curious moves recently.
For example, Germany recently reinstated its Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds.  Those funds could be utilized to bail out German banks in the event of a break up of the euro.  The following is from a recent article by Graham Summers....
In short, Germany has given the SoFFIN:
  1. €400 billion to be used as guarantees for German banks.
  2. €80 billion to be used for the recapitalization of German banks
  3. Legislation that would permit German banks to dump their euro-zone government bonds if needed.
That is correct. Any German bank, if it so chooses, will have the option to dump its EU sovereign bonds into the SoFFIN during a Crisis.
In simple terms, Germany has put a €480 billion firewall around its banks. It can literally pull out of the Euro any time it wants to.
So has Germany been quietly preparing a plan "B" just in case the rest of the eurozone rejected the path of austerity?
Most people have assumed that it will be a nation such as Greece or Portugal that will leave the euro first, but in the end it just might be Germany.
And the "smart money" is definitely betting on something big happening.
Right now some of the largest hedge funds in the world are betting against the eurozone as a recent Daily Finance articledescribed....
Some of the world's most prominent hedge fund managers are betting against the eurozone -- and not just the peripheral countries everyone knows are in trouble. They're taking positions against the core countries, economies that -- until now -- everyone has assumed were rock-solid.
Yes, the countdown to the break up of the euro has officially begun.
A great financial crisis is going to erupt in Europe, and it is going to shake the world to the core.
If you were frightened by what happened back in 2008, then you are going to be absolutely horrified by what is coming next.
Economic Collapse

Overnight Markets Plunging


Just as we warned at the end of today's nonsense, the afternoon ramp is fading fast now as the sad but true reality of a sun that rises in Europe awakening the maddening crowd. EURUSD is at 1.2970 (70 pips off the late-day swing highs already), ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures) are down 10 pts from the closing swing highs (which just happens to coincide with Sunday night's gap-down opening level around 1354.25), Silver has slumped back to the day's lows around $29, Gold back under $1600, and WTI is down around 2% from the day-session close at around $96.50. Treasuries are leaking lower in yield but FX markets seem very active as AUD drops to near parity with USD and carry pairs are generally weak. There are still a few more hours until Europe opens so anything can happen but for an overnight session, markets are not happy.

EURUSD not happy at all...



and nor are US equity futures...



But commodities are getting hammered again overnight (margin calls?)...





Once again - the intraday reality of credit markets (Corporates and Treasuries) is seeing equities converge lower to shake off that end-of-day insanity ramp. Clearly signaled by equity futures dropping back to CONTEXT (broad risk asset proxy) - though the latter is also fading fast this evening...



...and for the next time some equity analyst talking head scoffs when you tell them you use credit market information in your analysis - here is Bank of America's equity reality check writ large post stress-test results...just saying...




Zero Hedge

More than £25bn wiped off UK's biggest companies as Greece and France spook investors




The FTSE 100 slid 1.8pc to close at its lowest level this year, falling 100 points to 5,554, following the Greek electorate's rejection of the austerity measures that are a condition of its two bail-outs, worth a combined €219bn. European markets followed suit, with Germany's Dax dropping almost 2pc and France's CAC sliding nearly 3pc.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 1.3pc in early trading after digesting the weekend's tumultuous developments for a second day.

The eurozone's relative stability since the turn of the year was brought to a shuddering halt over the weekend by Francois Hollande's victory in the French presidential election on an anti-austerity ticket, and Greece's hung parliament. On Tuesday, Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Union, summoned leaders for crisis talks on May 23 to discuss efforts to foster growth in the wake of the popular uprising against cuts.

Amid the mounting panic, investors piled into safe havens. UK 10-year gilt yields closed at their lowest level since records began in 1703, at 1.93pc – although just above January's intra-day low of 1.92, while German bunds and US Treasuries also edged lower. Buoyed by investor interest, the pound surged to a near-four year high against the euro, rising 0.97 cents to €1.2419.

"Markets are now all about safe havens," Stephen Lewis, economist at Monument Securities, said. "Traders are worried about some new political crisis blowing up in the eurozone. Greece has made it inevitable that there will be some challenge to the eurozone authorities before the end of June."

The decision by two-thirds of the Greek electorate to vote for anti-austerity parties shocked markets and moved the country closer to the eurozone exit. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the radical leftist Syriza party that came second, said: "The popular verdict clearly renders the bail-out deal invalid."

Mr Tsipras has refused to go into coalition with his larger rival, New Democracy, and demanded it revoke austerity measures tied to the bail-out. Greece is now expected to go back to the ballot box next month to try to secure a mandate for a new government. However, the country is running out of time as it needs to agree another £11bn of savings to qualify for future bail-out instalments. The latest €5.2bn tranche is likely to be approved on Thursday, though.

Anticipating the worst, Mr Lewis said he hoped the eurozone authorities have begun working on a "smooth" exit plan for Greece. Similarly, Paul Taylor, chief executive of Fitch ratings agency, claimed a Greek exit would be manageable, and not mark the end of the single currency.

With voters rejecting austerity, sentiment in the markets as well as political corridors appeared to shift on Tuesday. Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance who negotiated the private sector writedown in the second Greek bailout, said leaders could slow the pace of cuts.

Germany, though, maintained its hard-line stance, with Foreign Minister Guido Westerwell saying: "The end of the debt policy has been agreed in Europe. It has to stay that way."

His comments came as German industrial production pointed to a rebound from the contraction of the last quarter of 2011, and the International Monetary Fund said conditions were in place for "a domestic demand-led recovery" this year.

However, the IMF added that the euro powerhouse could do more to help to end the continent's debt crisis. "[The] reduction of imbalances in the euro area would be helped by the natural rebalancing of Germany's economy," it said.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Tuesday night that Spain's government will demand its banks raise a further €35bn in provisions against sound loans in their property portfolios. Reuters claimed the move is set to be announced after a regular Friday cabinet meeting.

The Telegraph

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The Russian Military Has an Action Plan Involving Georgia if Iran Is Attacked


Russian Defense Ministry sources told the semiofficial news agency Interfax that action plans are being finalized to react to an armed conflict involving Iran and its nuclear program. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces “calculates” that military action against Iran will commence “in the summer” of 2012. Since Israel does not have sufficient assets to defeat Iranian defenses, the Russian military considers US military involvement inevitable (Interfax, March 30).

Bits of information have been appearing, indicating the essence of Russian military action. Last December it was disclosed that families of servicemen from the Russian base in Armenia have been evacuated to Russia, while the troops have been moved from the capital, Yerevan, north to Gumri – closer to the borders of Georgia and Turkey. The preparation of Russian forces in Armenia for action in the event of military conflict with Iran began “two years ago” (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 15).

After the short Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, break-away provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia were occupied by Russian troops. Tbilisi in turn stopped military transit to the Russian troops in landlocked Armenia. There is only an air link to Russia, while fuel and other essentials reportedly come over the Iran-Armenia border. Moscow believes this border may be closed in the event of war. According to Lt. General (retired) Yury Netkachev – former deputy commander of Russian forces in Transcaucasia – “Possibly, it will be necessary to use military means to breach the Georgian transport blockade and establish transport corridors, leading into Armenia (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 15). The geography of the region implies that any such “corridor” may go through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.

Large scale “strategic” military exercises Kavkaz-2012 are planned for next September, but it is reported that preparations and deployments of assets have begun already because of the threat of the possible war with Iran. New command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using GLONASS (Russian GPS) targeting information. The air force in the South Military District (SMD) is reported to have been rearmed “almost 100 percent” with new jets and helicopters. In 2008, Kavkaz-2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 16).

Last September it was announced that sniper units will be created in all Russian army brigades. The first 1,300 newly trained snipers have been deployed in the SMD (RIA Novosti, January 16). SMD units in Abkhazia, Ossetia, Chechnya and Volgograd have been rearmed with new T-90A and T-72BM tanks and new armored vehicles. In 2010 and 2011, SMD units received more than 7,000 pieces of new heavy weapons and have been more than 70 percent rearmed (RIA Novosti, January 16). According to President Dmitry Medvedev, by 2011 the overall rearmament of the entire Russian military with new weapons was much less – 16 percent (www.kremlin.ru, March 20).

Last January the newly appointed commander of the 58th army that spearheaded the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, Major General Andrei Gurulev, announced: “The army is a front-line force that keeps the peace in the region and has been rearmed more than 60 percent” (www.newsru.com, January 28). After an inspection of the SMD by Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, it was announced that new Special Forces units will be deployed in Stavropol and Kislovodsk “to further strengthen the security of the region” (RIA Novosti, January 26). Stavropol and Kislovodsk are ethnic Russian-inhabited North Caucasian regions that have not seen much Islamist or separatist activity.

A new 120-kilometer range land-mobile guided anti-ship missile, Bal-E, has been deployed on the Caspian shore of Dagestan (Interfax, February 8). The Russian military believes that when the US goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces in friendly Georgia and warships in the Caspian with the possible help of Azerbaijan. It is reported that in 2012 SMD forces will be 65 percent equipped with new communication devices, while the rest of the Russian military will have 26 percent (RIA Novosti, February 9). SMD units have received 20 new Tornado-G MRLS launchers (first procured in 2012) to replace the aging Grad MRLS. The Grad was massively used by the Russian troops against the Georgians in 2008. The 122-mm Tornado-G is reported to be “three times more effective than Grad,” with increased accuracy, firepower, mobility and a range of up to 100 kilometers (Interfax, April 3). The commander of the airborne troops (VDV), Lt. General Vladimir Shamanov, has announced the Russian troops in Armenia will be reinforced by paratroopers, possibly together with attack and transport helicopters. According to Netkachev, assault VDV units with helicopters may be moved into Abkhazia and South Ossetian (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 4).

The above stream of reports by official spokesmen and carried by government news agencies describes the forming of an offensive spearhead force in the SMD facing Transcaucasia. The force is too heavily armed with modern long-range weapons to be exclusively intended to take on the dispersed rebel guerrilla forces in Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. This week, the Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council Giga Bokeria told radio Ekho Moskvi about the growing threat of a war with Russia (Ekho Moskvi, April 2).

In Tbilisi, the possible threat of a new Russian invasion is connected to the parliamentary elections scheduled for next October and possible disturbances that may accompany them. According to polls, the ruling party of President Mikheil Saakashvili seems to be poised for another landslide victory, while the opposition movement, organized by the Russian-based billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, seems to be failing to gather mass support.

Of course, Moscow would be glad to see the electoral defeat of Saakashvili, but the Iranian war is a much more important issue. The Russian spearhead may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of US bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia, and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and, other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets. By one swift military strike Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse. At the same time, a small victorious war would unite the Russian nation behind the Kremlin, allowing it to crush the remnants of the prodemocracy movement “for fair elections.” And as a final bonus, Russia’s military action could perhaps finally destroy the Saakashvili regime.
The Jamestown Foundation


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