Tuesday, February 7, 2017
Poll Shows Merkel Losing Chancellorship If Elections Held Today
Overnight we reported that Germany's default swaps spiked to the highest level since Brexit as a recent poll showed that Merkel's lead in the polls had slid to multi-year lows ahead of Germany's elections later in the year, provoking some concerns that a formerly unthinkable "tail risk" outcome was becoming more likely. However, according to new data unveiled today, Merkel's headaches are only just starting, because in a brand new poll released this afternoon, the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the suddenly resurgent SPD would get 31%. This means that the SPD's new head, Martin Schulz, would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party, hence becoming Chancellor, leading to a stunned reaction by JPMorgan.