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Thursday, July 24, 2014

New Home Sales Collapse 20%

New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for 'weather' is over and the market to surge: it somehow was magically revised lower by more than 10% to only 442K) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.

The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower as follows:
March: 410K to 408K
April: 425K to 408K
May: 504K to 442K

What is even more troubling in the "survey" vs "reality" world is thiscollapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists' expectations, below the lowest guess and a massive miss from almost highest estimate Joe Lavorgna's 510k.



Where the biggest revision was: sales in the West. One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?

And this is all going to be quite a shock for the homebuilders...

Finally, here is your long-term recovery:
Credit to Zero Hedge

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