Watchman Warning

The Bible tells of coming wars centered in the Middle East. These wars are so devastating that, until the invention of nuclear weapons, most scholars assumed the Bible’s descriptions were hyperbole. Now, as the world steps closer to a nuclear Middle East, something amazing grows more obvious every day — God meant exactly what He said.

A nuclear arms race in the region now seems inevitable. How did this happen?

A few months ago, when it first looked like a deal with Iran might be possible, the Obama Administration began some tough negotiating, but not with Iran. The U.S. reserved the hardest negotiating for its allies, trying to get them to go along with what was obviously a bad deal. John Bolton, former Ambassador to the UN, called the new agreement “abject surrender by the United States.”

What caused this rush to agreement? President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry both acknowledged that the economic and political impact of sanctions forced the Iranians to the negotiating table. The U.S. held all the cards, but the negotiating team worked as if from a position of weakness. The deal brokered gave Iran what it wanted, but did not give America’s allies in the region what they wanted.

This puzzling behavior by the United States raises a lot of questions. Did Obama and Kerry fear that Israelmight soon launch a military assault on Iran? Is that what pushed them to move so quickly? With the first phase of a peace agreement already on the books, Israel would be forced to hold off on any kind of military action.

Sadly, if the president meant to remove Israel’s military option, he may have accomplished exactly the opposite. The sanctions were Israel’s primary hope for avoiding actual military strikes. But now the United States has given away that leverage . . . and, with it, that hope.

Israel will not attack in the next six months unless it sees an imminent threat. Such a threat is possible because, like North Korea, Iran has a history of making concessions in order to buy time. If it becomes obvious that they are breaking the agreement, then anything could happen. The deal does not bindIsrael. They were not included in the negotiations, and they opposed the plan since it first surfaced. They consistently said it would lead to an even more volatile Middle East.

Still, it would take more than chutzpah to strike Iran now. The Arabs may be privately egging them on, but it’s difficult to imagine these mortal enemies standing up to defend Israel once the deed is done. The so-called P5+1 powers who signed the agreement would take an attack as a personal affront.

Suppose Iran sticks to the accord, at least in the visible ways. What happens after six months? Will Iranstill have its nuclear infrastructure? Yes. Will it agree to meaningful concessions? Probably not. It got an agreement without doing so this time. Will sanctions be re-imposed? Not at the same level as before. WillIran renew its nuclear program? Maybe not in exactly six months, but soon. Will Israel then attack? It may not have a choice.

In the 1990s, North Korea stopped its nuclear program and the Clinton Administration hailed that moment as a victory for peace. Today, North Koreais firmly in the nuclear club. They are the only member of that club which regularly threatens to nuke its neighbors. But they are one of the poorest countries in the world. They are developing missile technology as fast as they can, but their resources are severely limited.

Iran is not North Korea. Iran has oil. It’s teeming with it. And oil is money — a sure currency anywhere in the world. With the sanctions lifting, Iran will have the cash to build its nuclear arsenal and the missiles to carry it. Oil also givesIran great economic leverage with powerful friends like China and Russia. Another difference is that the North Korean leaders just want to stay in power. Iranian leaders want World War III.

Iran is not North Korea, but Israel is not South Korea either. They have vowed not to allow Iran to build nuclear weapons.

Sadly for the world, it may not matter. Iran has already gone too far. It knows how to build these weapons. Bomb them or make a treaty with them, and they will still know the secrets. They will not forget. And they have constructed so vast a nuclear infrastructure that, to destroy their capability with military strikes, would require a prolonged campaign that Israel cannot sustain without significant support. If the mullahs want the bomb, and if they stay in power, they will get the bomb.

And they are not alone. Pakistan and North Korea, poor countries that already possess nuclear weapons, have shown a willingness to sell both the technology, and off the shelf nukes. We can soon expect theMiddle East to be awash in centrifuges and fallout shelters.

Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon said in a radio interviewSunday: “We will do whatever is necessary to protect Israel.”

One wonders what all that may include.


Credit To Hal Lindsey