Putin declared his desire to put Israeli nukes on the table as a bargaining chip with Syria and Iran

Next week at the quiet Swiss lakeside resort of Glion, officials from the UN, Russia, US and the UK will gather, ostensibly to prepare for December’s Non-Proliferation Treaty conference in Helsinki.

The December meeting was originally slated for 2010. The purpose: to assemble the permanent members of the UN Security Council—aka, the world’s nuclear club—to work out a plan for making the Middle East a zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

One would think they would focus on ridding Syria of its chemical weapons and getting Iran to abandon its nuclear program. After all, Assad’s sarin gas attacks against civilians have outraged the world, leading Russian President Vladimir Putin to propose disarming Syria of its deadly gases. In addition, the P-5 plus Germany are pushing Iran to freeze its nuclear program.

But the way things are shaping up, the conference may endanger Israel's unconfirmed nuclear deterrent.

At the 10th annual Valdai Club meeting, Putin declared his desire to put Israeli nukes on the table as a bargaining chip with Syria and Iran. In Moscow’s black and white world of “us against them,” Iran and Syria are viewed as friends, if not allies, while Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab Sunni states are considered America’s geopolitical “assets.”

If Russia is to negotiate over Syria’s chemical weapons and Iranian nukes, it wants to try and disarm Israel of its weapons of last resort. Moreover, Moscow wants to re-establish itself in the Middle East in a big way, replacing the US where possible. The Kremlin sees such a blatantly anti-Israel step as a way to win points within the region.

Nuclear defanging, the Kremlin believes, would irreversibly weaken an important American ally. Moscow ignores the fact that, according to open sources, Israel’s deterrent has not grown in decades. Furthermore, Jerusalem never threatened to wipe its neighbors off the map – like Tehran did. Indeed, if Israeli nukes exist, they have been a stabilizing factor in the Middle East for 40 years -- preventing yet another Arab attack on the Jewish State.

Putin’s decision to put the Israeli deterrent on the table raises a number of questions. First, Israel is not a member of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It developed its nuclear program in the 1950s with the help of France, a member of the nuclear club. It is surrounded by enemies with huge populations, who formally are in a state of war with it, with the exception of Jordan and Egypt.

Iran, on the other hand, is a member of the NPT. It has built a massive ballistic missile arsenal and is apparently preparing to build a nuclear bomb or to remain a nuclear weapons threshold state. “Death to America, Death to Israel” is a weekly prayer chant.

Moreover, the non-NPT nuclear powers - India, Pakistan and North Korea - have repeatedly threatened peace in their regions. North Korea is a genocidal, totalitarian communist dictatorship, while Pakistan is a feeble state, where radical Islamists may take over the government – and its nukes. Yet, Russia, the Arab states and many in the non-aligned world would single out Israel for nuclear disarmament.

As long as Iran is not fully disarmed and Arab countries do not sign a comprehensive peace with Israel, recognizing it as a Jewish state, any Israeli government that gives up its ultimate deterrent would undermine the country’s security.

Thus, the Russia-inspired UN initiative is quickly becoming a tough test for the Netanyahu government. Avoiding international pressure to sign the NPT and disarm is the ultimate imperative.

The nuclear disarmament issue will quickly become a litmus test for US-Israeli relations and for President Obama personally. After all, he believes in “global zero” – total nuclear disarmament.

Mr. Obama may think that reaching a deal with Putin on Syria and the prospect of freezing Iran’s nuclear program justify applying pressure on Netanyahu. Or, he may decide that such a step would jeopardize Israel's security so much that it would make it a burden for America.

The sands in the Middle East are shifting fast, as are US-Russian and US-Israeli relations. One can only hope that these shifts will not undermine the foundations of power equilibrium and stability that have helped hold the Middle East together for the last four decades.

Credit to i24