Everyone in Washington and on Wall Street is fixated on the potential for a government shutdown in less than two weeks.
But those in power and closest to the situation say a debt default is a bigger threat. That’s the thinking at the highest levels of Congress as Washington dives headfirst into a contentious fall.
Here’s the reality: Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) will eventually have to bring a funding bill to the House floor that keeps the government — and Obamacare — running. That’s the bill the House will most likely receive from the Senate shortly after Boehner’s chamber resumes work on Wednesday, just days short of an Oct. 1 government shutdown.
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That’s because the Senate will not accept the entirety of the three-month $986 billion continuing resolution that Boehner will attempt to pass Friday. The Senate will strip the language that’s meant to defund President Barack Obama’s health care law — strong language that was drafted to appease Boehner’s right wing. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), however, can remove that Obamacare provision with a simple majority vote in the upper chamber.
If Reid is successful and the Senate clears the revised continuing resolution, Boehner and House Republicans will then be back in the spotlight. And the speaker may need the support of House Democrats to pass the measure.
It won’t be pretty, but that so-called clean CR could pass the House with roughly 180 Republican votes with the remainder coming from the Democratic side of the aisle, according to senior GOP sources. White House deputy chief of staff Rob Nabors met with the House Democratic Caucus on Wednesday to walk through government funding scenarios. Although some Democrats are pushing to turn off the sequester as part of any CR deal, White House officials believe they can count on between 40 and 50 Democratic votes for a clean CR at the $986 billion level, giving House leaders enough to reach the key 217 vote level.
(WATCH: Chuck Schumer: 'We are not negotiating on the debt ceiling')
Over in the Senate, the chamber’s rules dictate that Reid will face at least one expected Republican filibuster on the government funding bill — meaning he has to muster 60 votes to cut off debate. Senate Democratic aides are hopeful — although not fully confident — that they can get there after they remove the Obamacare language.
“[Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell is the wild card here,” said a Senate Democratic staffer. “He hasn’t told us what he’s going to do yet.”
Republican Sens. Mike Lee of Utah, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida are also wild cards. If Lee and Cruz can persuade at least 38 of their colleagues to support a sustained filibuster of the funding bill, that would block any of Reid’s potential maneuvers and put a shutdown within reach.
In a statement, the Senate GOP troika praised Boehner for offering the House bill, but they noted that Reid would strip out the Obamacare language. In short, it’s a signal they don’t have the votes — or wherewithal — to sustain a filibuster. Their statement urged House Republicans to “stand firm, hold their ground and continue to listen to the American people.”
(Also on POLITICO: Senate GOP mum on House CR plan)
But House Republicans saw the statement as a sign their Senate colleagues were waving the white flag on getting rid of Obamacare.
“We trust Republicans in the Senate will put up a fight worthy of the challenge that Obamacare poses,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said in a statement.
There are unpredictable elements for House Republicans, as well. The most worrisome involves defense funding. If Reid needs to increase money for the Pentagon to earn the votes of hawkish senators like John McCain, passing a funding bill will become a lot trickier in the House.
House GOP aides expect between 150 and 180 Republicans to eventually support a CR that comes back from the Senate — just enough support to keep Boehner out of hot water.
(Also on POLITICO: House GOP CR to fund — and defund)
The nation will be perilously close to a government shutdown, and Boehner and his leadership team — bolstered by a raft of polling — will make the case that a shutdown will cost Republicans their House majority.
Credit to Politico
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