(CNN) -- The Obama administration calculates it's likely North Korea may test fire mobile ballistic missiles at any time, based on the most recent intelligence showing Pyongyang probably has completed launch preparations, a U.S. official said Tuesday.
The administration believes a test launch could happen without North Korea issuing a standard notice to commercial aviation and maritime shipping warning them to stay away from the missile's path, according to the official, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information.
He cautioned most of the information comes from satellite imagery, so it's impossible to reach a definitive conclusion because the United States has no means to gather information on the ground.
"We hope they issue a notification, but at this point we don't expect it. We are working on the assumption they won't, " the official said.
He said the launch could be "imminent," but also cautioned that the United States "simply doesn't know."
The official, along with a Pentagon official, said that the United States has been able to keep satellites over the suspected launch area for most of the past week.
The United States thinks the missiles remain at a point about halfway down the eastern coast of North Korea, and are about ten miles inland.
Imagery has been impeded by some bad weather, which means there is less than perfect knowledge about what is happening on the ground. But based on what the United States has seen, the belief is that the missiles have received their liquid fuel and are ready for launch.
After any launch, U.S. satellites and radars in the region would be able to calculate the trajectory of missiles within minutes, and quickly conclude whether they are on a test path headed for open ocean, or potentially headed for land areas such as Japan.
The United States and Japan would then have to decide whether to try to shoot the missiles down, the officials said.
CNN
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