North Korea's nuke test encourages Iran

The nuclear test North Korea conducted early Tuesday has harsh ramifications for Israel, as Pyongyang is showing Iran that it is possible to defy the international community, disregard the restrictions and prohibitions and even benefit from this sort of conduct.

North Korea's "extortion system" was introduced in 1993. It is based on the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. After every nuclear test or long-range ballistic missile test-launch, the international community imposes additional sanctions on North Korea, yet at the same time it offers to conduct negotiations with it. These negotiations are usually headed by a group of countries that includes Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and the US. As the negotiations draw to a close, North Korea promises to disarm itself of nuclear weapons or stop conducting missile tests – or even both. Then it receives aid in the form of petrol and food it needs in order to feed the hungry masses. But Pyongyang always reverts to its old habits.

North Korea held its first nuclear test in 2006. The second one was held underground in 2009, and the third one was held today. In the interim it conducted ballistic missile tests. What is Iran supposed to learn from this? The conclusion is pretty clear: In order to lift the sanctions imposed by the Western nations Iran does not have to surrender to them. On the contrary, it should complete its nuclear program and then enter into real negotiations with the West from a position of power.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said over a year ago that North Korea is like an ice breaker ship that clears the way for the Iranian military nuclear ship. This is precisely what is happening, and this is why the nuclear explosion this morning does not bode well for Israel. In roughly two weeks the permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with Germany, plan to begin negotiations with Iran in Kazakhstan. If the talks with North Korea are any indication, the next round of talks with Tehran will also fail to yield any results. Iranian scientists, by the way, were present during North Korea's previous nuclear test in 2009.

The two previous nuclear tests were held during the days of Kim Jong-il, the father of the current North Korean ruler, Kim Jong-Un, who apparently learned from his father that while nuclear weapons and missiles can be used to extort food and petrol from the West, the main reason behind the nuclear tests, which were condemned worldwide, is the desire to deter the West from trying to topple the regime in Pyongyang by force. Extortion alongside military deterrence is the name of the game.



Ynet