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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Italy Crashes Most In Six Months Despite EURUSD Strength

Wherever you looked today in Italy, shares were halted. From Saipem to Seat and From Banco Popolare to BMPS, individual stocks fell between 5% and 45% in some cases. 

Spain also fell alongside its incorrigible risk-on peripheral neighbor as dividend suspensions, outlook cuts, rating downgrades, and a growing concern about the banking system's legitimacy wear on sentiment. 

Italian sovereign risk was largely unchanged but as the US opened it started to bleed wider - but in general bonds ignored the stress in stocks. FX markets also were un-phased as EUR continued to test higher. CHF did, however, strengthen notably (against the USD, EUR, and mostly against the JPY - up 28% in the last six months!). The CHF strength did nothing for demand for Swiss rates though as they pushed higher to 10-month highs. The big problem though lies in credit. Just as in the US, credit markets in Europe are massively divergent from stocks' exuberance - and today's surge in Europe's VIX also echoes the disconnect we are seeing evolve in the US. Things are shifting...


Ugly day in Italian stocks...


CHFJPY strength...wow...is this how the SNB is doing it?

As Italy played catch-down to Spain on the week...

but it is credit markets that are starting to show signs of stress...

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