The dollar fell against the yen on speculation Barack Obama’s re-election as president will boost chances the U.S. will maintain monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the greenback.
The euro erased gains as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the Europe’s crisis is affecting Germany. The U.S. currency was mixed versus its major peers as Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney, who disagreed with current Federal Reserve policy. Obama now faces the so-called fiscal cliff, $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to be implemented in 2013.
The dollar traded at $1.2812 per euro as of 8:18 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2814 at the close yesterday, when it reached $1.2764, the strongest since Sept. 11. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- John Normand, head of global currency strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., talks about the outlook for the U.S. dollar. He speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank International, talks about the outlook for the dollar, yen and pound. She speaks from London with Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)
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“The size of the victory was perhaps at the upper end of what people were expecting, so that may mean that his negotiations with the Republicans to stop us going over the fiscal cliff might be a bit easier,” said Paul Robson, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The idea of unchanged Fed policy is slightly supportive for equities, slightly weaker dollar, and I think that’s how people are playing it today.”
The U.S. currency depreciated 0.3 percent to 80.08 yen at 7:44 a.m. in New York after declining to 79.81 yen, the weakest level since Nov. 1. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to $1.2764 per euro after falling 0.1 percent yesterday. The euro slipped 0.8 percent to 102.20 yen.
Obama prevailed over Romney narrowly in the popular vote, yet achieved an electoral sweep by carrying the crucial states of Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. With Florida too close to call, Obama had captured 303 Electoral College votes, well beyond the 270 needed to win the White House, compared with 206 for Romney.
‘Dollar Selling’
“Monetary policy will remain loose under Obama so the dollar will be sold,” said Michiyoshi Kato, senior vice president of foreign-currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. inTokyo. “Dollar selling may not last that long as the U.S. faces the fiscal cliff.”
Romney had said he disagreed with the Fed’s measures to stimulate the economy and would replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the end of the latter’s term in January 2014. U.S. policy makers unveiled a plan in September to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month in a third round of so- called quantitative easing after $2.3 trillion purchases of bonds from December 2008 and June 2011.
“Obama’s re-election is likely to boost expectations of continued easing by the Fed,” said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “If it leads to lower U.S. yields and higher stock prices, the bias will be for the dollar-yen to fall.”
Extra Yield
The extra yield investors demand to hold two-year U.S. Treasuries instead of similar-maturity Japanese government bonds shrank to 17 basis points, the least since Oct. 16, curbing the allure of the dollar over the yen.
Australia’s dollar rose to a six-week high against the U.S. currency as the MSCI Asia PacificIndex (MXAP) of shares gained 0.7 percent.
“The Aussie has popped in a very short-term market reaction,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a senior currency strategist at Scotiabank in Hong Kong. With Obama poised to begin another four-year term, “the consistent approach that will be executed by the current administration is positive. The one thing we don’t need these days is uncertainty.”
The Australian currency traded at $1.0435 after rising to $1.0480, the strongest since Sept. 21.
Greek Austerity
Gains in the euro were tempered as Greek lawmakers prepared to vote on austerity measures needed to keep its international bailout on track.
The 238 pages of additional austerity plans, ranging from raising the retirement age to eliminating holiday payments for pensioners, will be debated by the Greek parliament today with a roll-call vote expected. Approval is the first of the parliamentary votes required by Nov. 12 to unlock a 31 billion- euro portion of international aid.
“There is an expectation that will pass, and that again just takes yet another tail risk away from the euro,” Royal Bank of Scotland’s Robson said.
The euro declined 1.2 percent over the past month, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The dollar rose 0.5 percent and the yen fell 1.9 percent.
“The weak overall economic situation, combined with slow money growth, means that the risks of inflation are currently very low over the medium term,” ECB President Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt. “Our interventions will not change this outlook.”
Switzerland’s central bank said its foreign-currency reserves declined last month for the first time since February.
Holdings dropped to 424.4 billion francs ($451 billion) at the end of October from a revised 429.5 billion francs the previous month, the Swiss National Bank said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast 432 billion francs.
SNB President Thomas Jordan pledged to enforce a franc ceiling of 1.20 per euro introduced in September 2011 “with the utmost determination” even as the euro area’s fiscal crisis prompted policy makers to pile up record currency holdings.
Bloomberg
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