LONDON • British special forces, along with troops from France and the United States, are poised along the borders of Syria to secure and destroy the country’s arsenal of chemical weapons if the regime in Damascus collapses.
According to intelligence sources, specialized military units from the three Western allies have been in place for more than a month in Turkey, Israel and Jordan, ready to strike at Syria’s chemical weapon stocks and missile sites.
They would intervene if the weapons were about to be deployed by President Bashar Assad or were in danger of being captured by rebels.
“The personnel are there, the equipment is there, the lift capability is there,” said one intelligence source in the Middle East.
“There are people on the ground (inside Syria) assessing the logistics of landing and securing these sites. Preparations are underway for a mission to secure and destroy these weapons.”
The troop buildup on Syria’s borders underlines the mounting concern among Western powers and their regional allies that the largest stockpile of chemical weapons in the Middle East could fall into the hands of terrorists as the country fragments.
Militant groups operating in Syria, including al-Qaida, have made it clear they would like to seize chemical weapons, while the regime has hinted it could transfer part of its arsenal to the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah if its survival is in doubt.
U.S. President Barack Obama warned this week that the use or transfer of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would be “a red line” that could trigger military intervention.
Washington’s stance has been backed by British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President François Hollande.
The issue was top of the agenda at a meeting of American and Turkish officials in Ankara on Thursday, involving representatives from the U.S. State Department, the Pentagon, U.S. Central Command and the CIA.
One U.S. official who was at the meeting confirmed that intelligence about Syria’s chemical weapons was the “focus of the meeting.”
He added that plans were in place to secure the weapons if it was felt the Syrian regime had either lost control or was planning to use them against a civilian population.
The U.S. plan includes bombing the chemical weapons sites to incinerate the toxic agents. Gen. James Mattis, commander of U.S. Central Command, has requested a force of two aircraft carrier strike groups for the region. USS John C Stennis set off for the region on Monday to join USS Enterprise.
Officials said the U.S. is positioning stocks of bio-hazard gear in the region as part of the planning.
The steps are being taken “in case we confront a situation where Assad makes a terrible and horrific choice,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.
It is not just the size but the range of Syria’s chemical weapons stocks that is causing concern. Damascus is known to have manufactured mustard gas and the nerve agent sarin, and is believed to hold stockpiles of VX and cyanide gas. The agents have been weaponized into artillery shells, bombs and warheads for Scud missiles.
Four main production facilities have been identified, near the cities of Aleppo, Latakia, Homs and Hama, but intelligence on storage sites around the country is less clear. The number of stores has been estimated at almost 40.
Securing all the sites would be beyond the capability of special forces teams alone. At least 70,000 troops would be required to secure them if the regime collapsed, states a joint British and American analysis. Planning by the Pentagon details a joint operation by American, Turkish, and Jordanian troops, with support from Israel.
“Assad’s departure, which, when it happens, risks complete anarchy, will pose serious risks in respect of chemical weapons security. This is not a job that a few SF could manage,” a British government source said Thursday.
The Assad government is believed to have moved some weapons to more secure locations under the eye of the Syrian air force. Despite previous threats from Damascus, there is no indication yet that any of the stockpile has fallen into the wrong hands or is being prepared for deployment.
“Ironically, the Assad regime has, give or take, been scrupulous in ensuring Syrian chemical weapons stocks remain secured. He has known the risk any use of them entails for many weeks,” the source said.
But a former intelligence officer with the Syrian military, who recently defected to the rebels, said Thursday that a cache of weapons had been moved near the Lebanese border, where they could be transferred to Hezbollah in less than two hours.
This was confirmed by Israeli officials who are closely monitoring the situation along the Lebanese border. Israel has made it clear that it will act to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring chemical weapons.
Dina Esfandiary, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said Assad was aware that using chemical weapons would amount to “signing his own death warrant.” The weapons sites are secured by his most loyal troops and generals.
But as the conflict deepens, with loyalist forces depleted by a steady flow of defections, there is a danger that defences at the weapons sites could be weakened as the troops are thrown into battle.
“As the strain on the regime increases, it will find securing those weapons more difficult,” Esfandiary said.
The last international observers left Damascus Thursday after the UN failed to extend their mission. Activists said at least 100 people were killed across the country in clashes.
The Times, London©Times Newspapers Ltd. 2012with files fromThe Associated Press
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