Chances for war between Israel and Iran now stand at 48 percent, a new "doomsday clock" initiative by the U.S. magazine The Atlantic indicated on Thursday.
The new "Iran War Clock" utilizes a wide-ranging panel of experts in order to form what The Atlantic hopes would be an educated estimation as to the chances of all-out war in the Middle East. The project is an apparent take on the famous "Doomsday Clock , initiated by scientists to try and work out how close was mankind to the end of the world.
Presently the Iran War Clock is set to 10 minutes to midnight, with a current 48 percent probability of war erupting with Iran. The panel of experts includes Haaretz's own military analyst Amos Harel, as well as prominent scholars and journalists.
According to The Atlantic, each "panelist makes an individual estimate about the percentage chance of war and we report the average score. Based on this number, we adjust the Iran War Clock so that the hand moves closer to, or further away from, midnight."
"We're humble about the accuracy of this prediction, which is really a collective 'gut-check' feeling. But it may be closer to the truth than the alternative forecasts available."
In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said that the more veteran and all-inclusive Doomsday Clock was moved to five minutes to midnight, the first adjustment since the beginning of 2010, when it was moved back one minute to six minutes from midnight -- or "doomsday".
"Two years ago, it appeared that world leaders might address the truly global threats that we face. In many cases, that trend has not continued or been reversed," the group said in a statement.
Haaretz
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