Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Gold predicted to peak at $2,000 as precious metal ends bull run
As the global economic backdrop improves and investment in the "safe haven" metal wanes - "probably some time next year" - the price will retreat, according to respected metals consultancy GFMS.
Worries over nations' debt problems and currency devaluation have helped gold rise more than 600pc over the past 10 years, passing $1,920 an ounce in September.
Gold is likely to soar past that previous record in the final three months of this year or the first quarter of 2013, possibly breaking above the $2,000 mark, GFMS believes.
"Concern over nearly all currencies' long-term value remains acute, and this includes the US dollar, which to a large extent has found favour simply as the 'least bad' option, especially in light of growing fears over the break-up of the eurozone," GFMS said in an update to its annual gold survey.
However, the consultancy sees the gold price weakening as the broader financial landscape normalises over the next few years. Last year investors hunting for a refuge from the turmoil saw the value of gold transactions around the world hit a record at roughly $80bn, even though it slipped in terms of tonnage, said GFMS.
Within that, central banks are estimated to have bought a net 430 tonnes in 2011, a more than five-fold increase on the previous year and the highest level recorded since 1964.
Their buying was driven by "notably higher enthusiasm" from some emerging market nations, believed to be a reaction to the debt problems of other countries and also a move to diversify rising foreign exchange reserves.
The update followed a recent survey of gold miners by PwC which found they believe gold will hit $2,000 this year.