Trends analysis for 2012

Economic Martial Law
In late 2008, with the economy in tatters, Gerald Celente warned of the strong possibility of a bank holiday following the inauguration of Barack Obama. He suggested that the prudent Trends Journal subscriber “might consider preparing for such contingencies by having ready access to cash and gold. When banks reopen following a ‘holiday,’ limits may be set on withdrawal amounts and the currency may have been devalued, officially or de facto.”

Celente’s concern was brushed off or completely ignored by the media as pundits conned the public into imagining that recovery was at hand. But was the White House reading the Trends Journal? Were they listening to Celente’s bank holiday forecasts?

As would be revealed by Vice President Joe Biden, calling a bank holiday was being considered as a first priority by the Obama White House on Inauguration Day. “Literally, one of the early [discussions was] whether we might have to call a bank holiday… a bank holiday on the day after we were sworn in,” admitted Biden.

We submit that, considering the current economic and geopolitical conditions, central banks and world governments already have plans in place to declare economic martial law … with the possibility of military martial law to follow.


Battlefield America
Suddenly, with a stroke of the Presidential pen and overwhelming support from the Senate’s “Gang of 100,” the American “homeland” became the Fatherland. And from sea to shining sea, the United States was now categorized as a “battlefield.”

On 15 December 2011 (precisely 220 years to the day that the Bill of Rights was ratified) the United States Senate, bowing to pressure from the Obama administration, removed language from an earlier version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2012 (NDAA) that would have prevented US citizens from being subjected to indefinite military detention when captured or arrested, at home or abroad. In its final White House-approved form, the NDAA granted the President authority to act as judge, jury and executioner. Anyone, anywhere, at any time could be arrested, tortured and executed if declared an enemy of the state by el Presidente of los Estados Unidos.

What should have been a blaring front page headline, such as: “El Presidente Granted Dictatorial Powers: Bill of Rights Repealed,” was relegated to the bottom of page A31 of the self-proclaimed “Paper of Record,” The New York Times, under the “who cares?” trouble-free headline, “$662 Billion Military Bill Is Approved by Congress.”

From the rest of the so-called “liberal” mainstream media, there was mostly silence and hardly even a peep from its normally vocal lefty chorus … who, along with the lefties on the street, would have been shouting, screaming and Bush-bashing, had it been the former Republican President advocating this new “Bill of No Rights.”


Invasion of the Occtupy
Once again, Time magazine is behind the times. Its person of the year should not be the “Protestor.” We picked the “Occtupy.” Protestors, in one form or another, have been around since time and memorial.

But the “Occtupy” is like nothing history has ever witnessed. At first it was ignored, then it was derided as a minor irritant that would soon fade away. But it spread and multiplied, and no one seemed able to stop it. The Occtupy had no head, no single voice, but it spoke in many tongues as it grew into a giant, formless creature with tentacles that reached around the globe.

The Occtupy is invulnerable because it is indefinable. Anonymity is its strength. With no leader, no manifesto, no physical headquarters, no official spokesman, its very formlessness, which critics term weakness, is in fact its strength. With no leader's head to cut off, no headquarters to demolish, and no spokesman to silence, it is like a thousand-tentacled octopus – impossible to grasp and wrestle into submission.

Though the Occupy movement took the media by surprise, 15 years ago Gerald Celente predicted in his book Trends 2000 (Warner Books, 1997) that prolonged protests would hit Wall Street in the early years of the new millennium and would spread nationwide.

The “Occtupy” is upon is. It is no passing fad but rather a trend that will strengthen as it grows. Occtupy has become, and will remain, a megatrend of the new millennium.


Climax Time
In 2012, many of the long-simmering socioeconomic and geopolitical trends that we have forecast and tracked will come to a climax. Some will arrive with a big bang and others less dramatically … but no less consequentially.

On the economic front, alarm bells had long been ringing and signals flashing “danger ahead.” It seems inconceivable that the mainstream media and its stable of pundits, who should have known better, either missed, or downplayed the warnings. But that’s what they did, serving up each remotely positive morsel of economic data as though it were incontrovertible “proof of progress.”

As 2011 came to a close, the inevitable Day of Reckoning was at hand. The euro-zone was in meltdown. The great experiment was failing, and the desperate attempts to make it appear as though it could be saved were only part of a con game. And when the old con grew stale, a fresh con was tried: the "fear" and "if" con.

The IMF’s Christine LaGarde warned of dire consequences “…If the international community doesn't work together.” The new "fear" was real. History was in many ways repeating itself: Financial panic, massive unemployment, currency wars, trade wars, hot wars. Lagarde was correct – the world was ready to slide into a 1930s scale Depression.

But the big "if" – that "if" only the international community would join together and "focus on what it can do" – was the con.

There is no "if." The Climax is coming. The financial house of cards iscollapsing. And when the collapse can be no longer be denied, following the example of the 1930s, a pretext will be found to go to war.


Technocrat Takeover
“Democracy is Dead; Long Live the Technocrat!” could be the slogan for a major new trend ushering in the New Year. As it takes root and grows, it will be among the most important trends shaping the new millennium.

No one has yet to call the merger of state and corporate powers that has been foisted upon Greece and Italy by its proper name – Fascism – though a pair of lightning-quick financial coup d’états have installed two unelected figures as head of state.

And few in the mainstream media are calling these “technocrats” by their proper name: Bankers!

Unlike politicians, theoretically responsible to the will of an electorate, the technocrats appear to have pledged allegiance to the demands of their nations’ creditors and the agenda demanded by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Pulled from the rank of the White Shoe Boys, they will feel free to preside over an Austerity Era without worrying about the cash-strapped, unemployed, deep-in-debt populace.

But a rudderless ship, repeatedly torpedoed by financial saboteurs and set adrift in a minefield of red ink, will not be saved just because a technocrat is at the helm.


Repatriate! Repatriate!
It’s a new millennium trend, which, if realized and implemented, could prove instrumental in solving many of the socioeconomic problems plaguing so much of society. “Repatriate! Repatriate!” will pit the creative instincts of a multitude of individuals against the repressive monopoly of the multinationals.

It took a small, but financially and politically powerful group to sell the world on globalization, and it will take a large, committed and coordinated citizens’ movement to “un-sell” it. Around the world, in one form or another, anti-globalization rhetoric is ratcheting up.

What began simply – with grassroots “buy local” movements, farmers’ markets and community self-sufficiency – has entered an evolutionary phase. A new “patriotism,” a revived sense of “nationhood” has already been born, as well as a growing realization that for a nation to be strong, it has to be independent. To be independent it has to rely on itself, above all.


Secession Obsession
Winds of political change are blowing from such disparate places as Tunisia, Tahrir Square, Zuccotti Park, London, Brussels, Spain, Northern Italy, India, and even Russia. They have blown open a window of opportunity through which previously unimaginable political options may now be considered – including radical decentralization, Internet-based direct democracy, secession, and even the peaceful dissolution of nations.

There are currently 11 mega-nations with a population of over 100,000,000 people. All of them are too big, too powerful, too undemocratic, too environmentally irresponsible, too intrusive, too insular, and too unresponsive to the needs of individual citizens and small local communities.

Because of its sheer size, the US, like the rest of the mega-nations, is fundamentally unsustainable, ungovernable, and, therefore, unfixable. But, just as a group has a right to form, so too does it have a right to disband, to subdivide itself, or to withdraw from a larger unit. Today there are separatist movements in over two dozen countries, and many secessionist movements in the United States.

Rebellions, such as the “Occtupy,” offer the possibility for a new world disorder – a disorder that rejects cant and dogma; a disorder that fosters creativity and seething human enterprise; a disorder, most importantly, that promotes the decentralization of governance.


Safe Havens
The End is Near! The end of the world as we know it is approaching. Not the “End Times” that Armageddonites predict nor Mayan Calendar catastrophists dread. Rather, as the signs of imminent economic and social collapse become more pronounced, legions of New Millennium survivalists are, or will be, thinking about looking for methods and ways to escape the resulting turmoil.

Survivalism 2.0, a trend that had been simmering for years and bubbled over when the “Panic of ’08” hit, will come to a full boil in 2012. Those “on-trend” and who “Think for Themselves” have already taken measure to implement Gerald Celente’s 3 G’s (GC’s 3-G’s): Gold, Guns and a Getaway plan. Put another way, personal security, financial security, and a safe haven.

The so-called austerity measures that have been instituted in Greece and Italy, will seem mild once the bottom truly falls out of the world economy. The outrage that is now fuelling the “Occtupy” will be matched by the desperation of the millions of the newly destitute.

“Security” for many will become priority No.1. As Gerald Celente says: “When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose … they lose it.” Their violent reactions will put at risk virtually everyone unlucky enough to cross their paths.

For many law abiding citizens, especially in the US, the threat will not only come from some desperate lone-wolf mugger, predator street gang or marauding flash-mob, but from Uncle Sam himself.

The groundwork has been put in place for “Economic Martial Law” and a suspension of the Bill of Rights. Uncle Sam, “Public Enemy No.1” is at the ready; the military now has full control over the population. A situation looms that will prove intolerable to those accustomed to enjoying personal freedoms.

And as economies falter, and governments feel threatened by the restless “have not’s” and “going over the top’s,” to varying degrees, personal freedoms and “inalienable rights” will become alien.

The hardy and adventurous will find ways to go off-the-grid and live independently in remote locations. But for many, without the skills, strength or desire to go rugged, the only realistic safe havens will be found in a few countries positioned to escape the worst of the collapse.

Where to go? What to do? How to do it? The pitfalls and the possibilities will be addressed in your upcoming Top Trends 2012Trends Journal.


Big Brother Internet
Many computer experts were calling 2011 the “Year of the Hack,” as tales of large-scale computer data breaches hit the headlines. As 2012 dawns, we forecast the coming year as the beginning of the end of Internet Freedom: A battle between the governments and the people.

The Stuxnet computer worm used to damage the Iranian nuclear effort, discovered in late 2010, the first acknowledged cyberweapon served as a wake-up call to the general public. Generals around the world have been predicting cyberwars for several years, and every major nation has already in place a
cyberwarfare force.

The word from the front (US, UK, Germany, France, et al) has been remarkably similar. The Internet has become a “Wild West,” cybercrime is “the most profitable criminal activity ever seen,” and “every company in every conceivable industry with significant size … has been compromised.”

Though the cybercrime threat is real and on the rise, many IT experts claim governments are fear mongering to prepare the public for measures that will end the anonymity and free association on the Internet.

What will it mean to you? How far will the government go to “Big Brother” the Internet? Under the guise of protecting intellectual property and commercial interests, governments will propose legislation in 2012 to require Internet users to present the equivalent of a driver’s license and/or bill of health to navigate cyberspace. This new “authentication technology” will be a boon for a few, but for the general population, it represents yet another curtailing of freedom, and another level of governmental control.


Direct vs. Faux Democracy
As 2012 approaches, in every corner of the world, a restive populace has made it clear that it’s disgusted with “politics as usual” and is looking for change. Government, in all its forms – democracy, autocracy, monarchy, socialism, communism – just wasn’t working.

Still, among all the systems of governance, the one that held the most promise and most captured the imagination of the citizenry was democracy. But though representative democracy, as practiced in the West, was noble in principle, it was little more than a cruel sham in practice. The established ruling parties were no more than representatives – middle men – carrying out the will of the very rich and very powerful forces who had manipulated government throughout history.

In 2012, the only practical solution to breaking the “party rule” stranglehold – in the US or Russia, England or France – is Direct Democracy (DD). Theoretically, the elected officials of “representative democracies” are meant to carry out (represent) the people’s will. But, in practice, most are beholden to special interests whose campaign contributions (a.k.a. bribes and payoffs) are repaid in kind. Bluntly: The people in power represent only the people with the most power.

The only viable solution we can envisage to disempower the powers that be – and reverse today’s ruinous socioeconomic and geopolitical trends – is to take the vote out of the hands of party politicians and institute Direct Democracy: If the Swiss can do it, why can’t anyone else?

It is due time for Thomas Jefferson’s vision that “… in due time the voice of the people will be heard and their latent wisdom will prevail,” to prevail. To bring volunteers together and further the Direct Democracy movement, The Trends Research Institute has established the web site www.DirectDemocracyNow.org


Alternative Energy 2012
Many of the alternative energy technologies we’ve hung our hopes on – solar panels, wind turbines, and even magnetic motors that yield more energy than they consume – are in the process of being supplanted by a new crop of exciting energy possibilities.

Even under the cloud of Fukushima, the harnessing of nuclear power is being reinvigorated by a fuel that is significantly safer than uranium and by the introduction of small, modular, portable reactors that reduce costs and construction time.

Geologists are using new technologies to open vast stores of natural gas that, until now, have been locked in deep, inaccessible shale beds. They offer the prospect providing more energy than Saudi oil fields ever could. Tapping this new energy wealth means shattering or “fracking” the once-impenetrable layers of shale where the gas is locked.

But the process is implicated in rising earthquake activity around the world, and contamination of the aquifer in mining locations. Therefore, while shale gas could provide abundant, cleaner-burning fuel for decades, the price we may have to ultimately pay may be very high: the stability of the ground we stand on, and the purity of the water we drink.

“Green gasoline” will spark less sticker shock. There are dozens of projects underway that explore the possibility of creating cleaner, competitively priced liquid fuels distilled from wood chips, corn stalks, animal fats, and engineered algae. These fuels are true hydrocarbons, not alcohols, so they won’t corrode existing engines and pipelines.

Because they use waste or cheap, abundant commodities such as feedstocks, costs are low and they don’t compete with food supplies. Plan to start saying goodbye to conventional liquid fuels … and for those looking for investment opportunities, in the upcoming Trends Journal we will identify promising possibilities.


Going Out in Style
As bleak as the global socioeconomic outlook appears, life goes on. Everyone still needs the basics of food, shelter and clothing. And everyone who has the means, or even just a little extra, will continue to crave something more … something with style.

In looking ahead to what can be achieved in a period of economic hardship and geopolitical upheaval, we’re taking a page from the book of the Great Depression. In those years of an economic downturn of historic proportions, the human spirit soared.

During those “worst of times,” America reveled in quality and style. It was “Swing Time” during the down time. The message was: As bad as it is, it isn’t all bad, and just because the economy is down, you don’t have to go down with it.

In the bleak terrain of 2012 and beyond, “Affordable sophistication” will direct and inspire products, fashion, music, the fine arts and entertainment at all levels. US businesses would be wise to wake up and tap into the dormant desire for old time quality and the America that was.


Trends Journal