65% Chance of Banking Crisis by End of Month: Researchers

There is a 65 percent chance of a banking crisis between November 23-26 following a Greek default and a run on the Italian banking system, according to analysts at Exclusive Analysis, a research firm that focuses on global risks.

A domino effect on banks is 65% likely following a Greek default and a run on the Italian banking system according to analysts

Having tested a number of assumptions in a scenario modeling exercise, the Exclusive Analysis team warned it is becoming less and less likely that EU leaders will simply “muddle through” and have made some bold calls with clear timelines on when the euro zone will be thrown into a major financial crisis.

The most likely outcome according to their analysis is a sudden crisis in which the US, UK and BRICs nations refuse to provide funding via the IMF for the euro zone. In a world where predictions are made with no time lines, the paper makes some bold predictions which can be held to account over the next three weeks.

In the worst case scenario, Exclusive Analysis expects the governments of Greece and Portugal to collapse due to a lack of consensus on how to handle the debt crisis leading to social unrest. German opposition to handing more funds to the EFSF rises, leading Germany’s parliament to actually reduce the money available to the bailout fund.

“In face of that, China and the other BRICs give clear signals that they will not support the bailout fund. The EFSF turns to the ECB , which refuses to print out the amount of money the former needs to bailout the PIIGS. In face of the EU's failure to boost the EFSF, the European banks refuse to accept the 50 percent haircut on the Greek debt.

Between November 18-22, French debt, under Exclusive Analysis' most likely scenario, is downgraded leading to the interbank lending market freezing up with new governments in Greece and Italy “faced down by protestors in their attempts to implement more austerity”.

Civil unrest follows in Spain following the election of a new government which pushes through even tighter austerity measures, and Portugal announces it cannot meet financial targets putting its bailout cash from the IMF and ECB at risk.

“Increased fear that these economies will default creates bank runs in Greece and Portugal and a downgrade of French sovereign debt from AAA to AA. EFSF is subsequently downgraded to AA+” said the report.

“The spreads applied to the debt of all PIIGS increase with yields on Italian bonds reaching 7.3 percent. In a second contagion effect, depositors in Spain and Italy fear a banking crisis in their own countries, which end up creating a series of bank runs and a collapse of the interbank credit market as banks know that most of their counterparts are at risk. Greece defaults.”

CNBC