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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

They predict a riot: foresee the news before it happens using Twitter

Riots in Greece this year: An American agency hopes to be able to predict 'unexpected' social events such as riots and social upheaval using an advanced computer model

Some hedge funds already use Twitter and other social networks to 'predict' fluctuations in the stock market.

Now a U.S. government agency is to use the social network to attempt to predict revolutions.

Iarpa - the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity - hopes to be able to predict 'unexpected' events such as revolutions using a wide range of data.

Iarpa is to spend three years analysing data taken from 'open' sources such as Wikipedia edits, Twitter posts and even publicly available data from traffic systems and webcams.

The data will be taken from 21 countries in mainland Latin America, chosen because they offer a wide variety of data, and a wide variety of reported events.

The goal is to allow Iarpa to 'predict' news before it happens.

Teams will compete to make the best predictions.

A statement from the proejct, called OSI - the Open Source Initiative - said, 'Teams choose sensors, data, and methods. Teams are rewarded for early and accurate warnings of as many newsworthy events as possible.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2050510/US-intelligence-agency-foresee-news-happens-using-Twitter.html#ixzz1bEh7ENo8

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