NEW YORK - Iran's much-delayed Russian-built nuclear power plant in Bushehr went on line on September 4, heralding a new era for the country that promises even greater national investment in nuclear energy in the coming years, irrespective of whatever external pressures come to bear on Tehran.
The reactor's connection to the national grid is one thing. Quite another is its connection to a whole nation's collective psyche, identity and pride, repeatedly bruised over a decade-long delay - which is why the political and symbolic significance of this new development requires close scrutiny.
In a word, the agony of potential defeat over an important national project that dates back to before the revolutionary era (1979) and the tumults of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s (when the plant under construction was repeatedly bombed) has now been replaced with a sense of relief and the satisfaction that adversaries including the United States government failed to halt Iran's march toward nuclear power.
It was three years ago that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explicitly pressured Moscow not to complete the Bushehr power plant as long as Iran had not complied with United Nations demands to suspend controversial nuclear activities, above all uranium enrichment. Much has happened since then and US-Russia relations have cooled considerably, casting a shadow on the prospects of concerted action regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Last Wednesday, ardently pro-Israel French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned of pre-emptive strikes against Iran due to missile and nuclear programs, partially exonerated by a new report by the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA) on Friday that expressed increased concerns about the "possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities".
Citing a steam of credible intelligence reports from "many member states," conceived as "extensive and comprehensive", the IAEA report set the stage for further Iran-bashing initiatives at the upcoming meeting of the agency's board of governors - on September 12, the same date slated for the official ceremony at Bushehr - that could trigger more action against Iran at the United Nations later this year.
Both Ali Larijani, the powerful speaker of Iran's parliament (Majlis) and Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, have labeled the IAEA report as "double-edged". Alongside increased concerns, the report confirmed the absence of evidence of any diversion of declared nuclear material and, equally important, its admission that Iran had expanded cooperation by allowing a recent high-level inspection of facilities including the heavy water reactor under construction in Arak, and had also "provided extensive information on its current and future R&D [research and development] work on advanced centrifuges".
Abbasi, in an extensive interview with a Tehran news agency, said, "If the atomic agency shows that it is not under pressure by the countries opposed to Iran, we can cooperate even more." Abbasi said that Iran's preconditions for nuclear negotiations had changed and while Tehran was still studying the recent Russian "step-by-step" proposal, under no circumstances would it be willing to compromise its "nuclear rights".
Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, on the other hand has questioned the credibility and authenticity of information on Iran fed to the IAEA by other countries. After all, the IAEA as its previous chief, Mohammad ElBaradei, repeatedly stated that the agency lacked the "means and the manpower" to "independently confirm" the authenticity of foreign intelligence reports on Iran. ElBaradei's view is obviously not an issue of concern for his successor, Yukiya Amano, who has discounted the possibility of disinformation on Iran.
Clearly, to claim that "many member states" have credible information suggesting that Iran is engaged in clandestine nuclear weapons program, when even the top US intelligence officials shy away from such strong statements and important countries such as Russia are willing to go on record professing ignorance of any viable information suggesting Iranian proliferation, indicates that something is amiss.
"The IAEA report's reference to intelligence from several countries is misleading," says a Tehran University political science professor, who spoke to the author on the condition of anonymity. "The reason being that we are usually dealing with a 'wolf pack' consisting of the US, Israel and France and England, the latter two usually behaving as information clearing house for Israel. Therefore, it is really disingenuous on Mr Amano's part to claim that many members are giving him credible information. It is really starting to sound like reading a cheap detective novel."
Whether hyped up or not, the Iran nuclear threat remains a real issue of concern to Western governments and some of Iran's (Arab) neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, a source of virulent anti-Iran announcements nowadays.
Turkey's recent consent to the US bid to station anti-missile radar on its soil close to Iranian territory also warrants a sustained Iranian counter-effort at confidence-building with the IAEA, which is why a positive Iranian response to the Russian proposal to end the impasse over negotiations is key.
The so-called "Lavrov plan", named after Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, was submitted to Tehran last month and calls on Iran to expand its cooperation with the IAEA, envisaging a scenario in which for every proactive Iranian step to resolve any outstanding issues with the body, the international community would grant Iran limited concessions, such as freezing some sanctions.
For sure, along with Moscow's final delivery of its promise to complete the Bushehr power plant, an Iranian nod to the nuclear proposal could go a long way to cementing future Russian-Iran nuclear cooperation. Better late than never, Russia has given cause for national joy in Iran and this may mean more nuclear contracts with Tehran; this at a time when the West knows only the language of coercion and threats against Iran.
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