U.S. home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression, according to Capital Economics.
Paul Dales, senior U.S. Economist at Capital, said the Case-Shiller index released earlier on Tuesday — which tracks prices of single-family home in 20 major U.S. cities — are now 33% below the 2006 peak and back at a level last seen in the third quarter of 2002, edging out the 31% dip seen in the Depression of the 1930s.
“On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first fell,” Mr. Dales said.
“The similarities between the current downturn and that seen during the Great Depression are striking,” Mr. Dales said in a note. He pointed out that on both occasions, prices initially fell by 31% and, after a temporary rebound, dropped back by 7%, the dreaded double-dip.
Double-dips are not on uncommon though. Denmark, the U.K. and Sweden all saw prices fall for a second time during the 1980s and 1990s, he notes.
Mr. Dales said the bottom has not yet been reached in U.S. housing: “We think that prices will fall by at least a further 3% this year, and perhaps even further next year.”
However he does offer a glimmer of hope. The rate at which prices are falling appeared to stabilise at 0.2% m/m in March.
“Moreover, the latest fall in prices has made housing appear even more undervalued,” he said.Financial Post
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