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Friday, March 11, 2011

Has The Tsunami In Japan Destroyed The Japanese Economy?



From the economic collapse, what will happend to the japanese economy after this....



The entire world is in a state of mourning today as details regarding the horrific damage caused by the massive tsunami in Japan continue to trickle in.  The magnitude 8.9 earthquake that caused the tsunami was the largest earthquake that Japan has ever experienced in modern times.  Waves as high as 30 feet swept over northern Japan.  The tsunami waters reached as far as 6 miles inland, and authorities have already recovered hundreds of dead bodies.  Those of us that have seen footage of this disaster on television will never forget it.  But this nightmare is not over yet.
  There have been dozens of aftershocks, and many of them have been quite large.  In fact, there have been 19 earthquakes of at least magnitude 6.0 in the area over the last 24 hours.  So what is this disaster going to do to the 3rd largest economy in the world?  Japan already had a national debt that was well over 200 percent of GDP.  Could this be the "tipping point" that pushes the Japanese economy over the edge and into oblivion?
It is hard to assess the full scope of the damage to Japan at this point, but virtually everyone agrees that much of northern Japan is a complete and total disaster area at this point.  Many towns have essentially been destroyed.  Some are estimating that the economic damage from this disaster will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.  Others believe that the final total will be in the trillions of dollars.
Fortunately, major cities such as Tokyo came through this event relatively unscathed and most of the major manufacturing facilities are not in the areas that were most directly affected by the earthquake and the tsunami.
But let there be no doubt, this was a nation-changing event.  Japan will never quite be the same again.
Also, it isn't just Japan that will be affected by this.  The truth is that economic ripples from this event will be felt all over the world.


The Japanese are a very resilient people and the Bank of Japan is already vowing that it will be doing whatever is necessary to ensure the stability of the financial markets.  The Bank of Japan has announced that it is going to provide as much liquidity as necessary to keep the Japanese economy functioning normally.
But the truth is that the Bank of Japan has already been printing money like crazy....
Is a tsunami of new yen really going to solve the economic damage that has been done by the earthquake and the tsunami?
Of course not.
The truth is that the economy of Japan was already deeply struggling before this disaster.
The national debt of Japan is now well over 200% of GDP and there seems to be no doubt that they will need to borrow massive amounts of money to deal with the aftermath of this crisis.
Up until now the Japanese government has been able to borrow money at ultra-low interest rates of around 1.30 percent for 10-year bonds, drawing on a huge pool of savings from its own citizens.
But in light of what has just happened, will the citizens of Japan still have enough resources to continue to fund the rampant spending of the Japanese government?
At this point, it is estimated that this gigantic mountain of debt breaks down to 7.5 million yen for every single citizen of Japan.
Politicians in Japan have been pledging for years to do something about all of this debt, but nobody has been able to make much progress.
Even before this disaster, the major credit rating agencies were warning that they may have to downgrade Japanese government debt.  The earthquake and the tsunami are certainly not going to make the Japanese even more credit-worthy.
Hideo Kumano, the chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, has said that a "tipping point" will come when world financial markets finally recognize that the government of Japan simply cannot afford to service its debt any longer....




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1 comment:

  1. BOJ has expanded the QE program to 10T Yen to aid the recovery. However it needs to be signficantly bigger to have a meaningful impact.

    ReplyDelete