Bahrain May Be Uprising Too Far for Saudis Avoiding Iran’s Grip

Saudi Arabia has watched revolts unfold in Tunisia, Egypt andLibya. When it comes to Bahrain, the world’s largest oil exporter may not be a mere spectator.

Protests on the neighboring island, where the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet guards Gulf oil supply, are being overshadowed by the challenge to Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi. Yet they underscore the sectarian divide in the Muslim world between Shiites and Sunnis that puts Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia on the other in a region that holds about 55 percent of the world’s crude.

“Saudi Arabia is concerned about the expansion of the Shiite crescent,” said Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. “The last thing Riyadh would want to see is Shiite rule inBahrain. At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia would intervene militarily.”

Instability in Bahrain might affect oil prices more than the ouster of Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January, Egypt’sHosni Mubarak a month later or the turmoil in Libya, according to Mustafa Alani, a regional security expert from the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center.

Mainly Shiite protesters in Bahrain are demanding democracy through free elections from their Sunni monarch. Thousands of demonstrators surrounded the state television headquarters in the capital, Manama, today, shouting slogans against the royal family, after several Shiites were injured in street clashes with Sunnis late yesterday, the Associated Press reported.

‘Front Line’

“Bahrain is the front line in the conflict between the Gulf states and Iran,” Alani said in a telephone interview. “The sectarian dimension is definite. This would have a huge impact on the stability in the Gulf.”

There have already been signs of unrest among Saudi Shiites, who make up about 10 to 15 percent of the population. About 100 people joined a demonstration in the Shiite village of Awwamiya yesterday, calling for the release of prisoners, and a similar number gathered later in the city of Qatif under a strong police presence.

Saudi Arabia, which holds 20 percent of the world’s oil reserves, is dominated by a branch of Sunni Islam, while Iran, home to 10 percent of reserves, is mainly Shiite.

Crude oil prices have climbed 20 percent to a 29-month high since unrest erupted in Bahrain on Feb. 14. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index plunged the most in more than two years on March 1 on concern disturbances may extend to the kingdom. The Tadawul All Share Index (SASEIDX) has tumbled 20 percent since Feb 14 

Bloomberg

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