Solar Storm Expected to Hit Earth Tuesday

A medium-size solar flare erupted from the sun this weekend, hurling a cloud of plasma and charged particles toward Earth on a cosmic path that is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our planet tomorrow (July 31), according to space weather forecasters.

The M6-class solar flare exploded from the sun on Saturday (July 28), unleashing a wave of plasma and charged particles, called a coronal mass ejection (CME), into space. The CME is expected to reach Earth tomorrow, and could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field at around 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), according to the website Spaceweather.com, which regularly monitors space weather events.

"This is a slow-moving CME," astronomer Tony Phillips wrote on Spaceweather.com. "The cloud's low speed (382 km/s estimated) combined with its glancing trajectory suggests a weak impact is in the offing. Nevertheless, polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives."

Space

Second India blackout in two days cuts power to 670 million

(Reuters) - Grids supplying electricity to half of India's 1.2 billion people collapsed on Tuesday, trapping coal miners, stranding train travelers and plunging hospitals into darkness in the second major blackout in as many days.

Stretching from Assam, near China, to the Himalayas and the northwestern deserts of Rajasthan, the outage was the worst to hit India in more than a decade and embarrassed the government, which has failed to build up enough power capacity to meet soaring demand.

"Even before we could figure out the reason for yesterday's failure, we had more grid failures today," said R. N. Nayak, chairman of the state-run Power Grid Corporation.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has vowed to fast-track stalled power and infrastructure projects as well as introduce free market reforms aimed at reviving India's flagging economy. But he has drawn fire for dragging his feet.

By the afternoon rush-hour, only about 40 percent of power was back up. Electricity had not been restored to all of the sweltering capital, New Delhi, and streets were clogged with commuters trying to get home.

"It's certainly shameful. Power is a very basic amenity and situations like these should not occur," said Unnayan Amitabh, 19, an intern with HSBC bank in New Delhi, as he was giving up on the underground train system and flagging down an auto-rickshaw to get home.

"They talk about big ticket reforms but can't get something as essential as power supply right."

Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde blamed the system collapse on some states drawing more than their share of electricity from the over-burdened grid.

Asia's third-largest economy suffers a peak-hour power deficit of about 10 percent, dragging on economic growth.

"This is the second day that something like this has happened. I've given instructions that whoever overdraws power will be punished," said Shinde, hours before he was promoted to interior minister in a cabinet reshuffle.

More than a dozen states with a population of 670 million people were without power.

Two hundred miners were stranded in three deep coal shafts in the state of West Bengal when their electric elevators stopped working. Eastern Coalfields Limited official Niladri Roy said workers at the mines, one of which is 700 meters (3,000 feet) deep, were not in danger and were being taken out.

Train stations in Kolkata were swamped and traffic jammed the streets after government offices closed early in the dilapidated coastal city of 5 million people.

The power failed in some major city hospitals and office buildings had to fire up diesel generators.

By mid-evening, services had been restored on the New Delhi metro system.

"PUSHED INTO DARKNESS"

On Monday, India was forced to buy extra power from the tiny neighboring kingdom of Bhutan to help it recover from a blackout that hit more than 300,000 million people.

Indians took to social networking sites to ridicule the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, in part for promoting Shinde despite the power cuts.

Narendra Modi, an opposition leader and chief minister in Gujarat, a state that enjoys a surplus of power, was scornful.

"With poor economic management UPA has emptied pockets of common man; kept stomachs hungry with inflation & today pushed them into darkness!," he said on his Twitter account.

The country's southern and western grids were supplying power to help restore services, officials said.

The problem has been made worse by a weak monsoon in agricultural states such as wheat-belt Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges plain, which has a larger population than Brazil.

With less rain to irrigate crops, more farmers resort to electric pumps to draw water from wells.

India's electricity distribution and transmission is mostly state run, with private companies operating in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Less than a quarter of generation is private nationwide.

More than half the country's electricity is generated by coal, with hydro power and nuclear also contributing.

Power shortages and a creaky road and rail network have weighed heavily on the country's efforts to industrialize. Grappling with the slowest economic growth in nine years, the government recently scaled back a target to pump $1 trillion into infrastructure over the next five years.

Major industries have their own power plants or diesel generators and are shielded from outages. But the inconsistent supply hits investment and disrupts small businesses.

High consumption of heavily subsidized diesel by farmers and businesses has fuelled a gaping fiscal deficit that the government has vowed to tackle to restore confidence in the economy.

But the poor monsoon means a subsidy cut is politically difficult.

On Tuesday, the central bank cut its economic growth outlook for the fiscal year that ends in March to 6.5 percent, from the 7.3 percent assumption made in April, putting its outlook closer to that of many private economists.

"This is going to have a substantial adverse impact on the overall economic activity. Power failure for two consecutive days hits sentiment very badly," said N. Bhanumurthy, a senior economist at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

Reuters

IDF's smartphone revolution raises spy concerns

Hundreds of smartphones will be handed out to IDF officers starting Wednesday as the army abandons its outdated Mirs devices. While officers are sure to be eager to explore the exciting world of apps, Military Intelligence officials are worried that the new devices will compromise information security.

The concern is that smartphones operating on the GSM network, which is considered less safe than Mirs, will be more exposed to remote attacks which could switch on the microphone or extract messages and photos. It is also feared that enemy agents will be better able to track the smartphone holders' location.

Military Intelligence officers are also concerned that soldiers given the new devices will use them to save classified information, including photos taken at army bases, classified text messages and recordings of meetings. Smartphones connected to army computers could compromise saved files.

Anticipating new information security problems, the IDF will equip all officers with guidelines on how to use their new phones. They will not be allowed inside classified spaces such as command posts, meeting rooms and during operational activity.

Each smartphone will come complete with special protection software meant to reduce the number of potential "intruders."

"The software won't provide hermetic protection but will indicate when the device has been attacked, allowing us to respond quickly," an IDF official said.

He noted that tracking will be done according to the law and without violating privacy. The IDF also intends to launch a wide-scale campaign to encourage careful use of computers.

Ynet news

Post office nears historic default on $5B payment

WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. Postal Service is bracing for a first-ever default on billions in payments due to the Treasury, adding to widening uncertainty about the mail agency's solvency as first-class letters plummet and Congress deadlocks on ways to stem the red ink.

With cash running perilously low, two legally required payments for future postal retirees' health benefits - $5.5 billion due Wednesday, and another $5.6 billion due in September - will be left unpaid, the mail agency said Monday. Postal officials said they also are studying whether they may need to delay other obligations. In the coming months, a $1.5 billion payment is due to the Labor Department for workers compensation, which for now it expects to make, as well as millions in interest payments to the Treasury.

The defaults won't stir any kind of catastrophe in day-to-day mail service. Post offices will stay open, mail trucks will run, employees will get paid, current retirees will get health benefits.

But a growing chorus of analysts, labor unions and business customers are troubled by continuing losses that point to deeper, longer-term financial damage, as the mail agency finds it increasingly preoccupied with staving off immediate bankruptcy while Congress delays on a postal overhaul bill.

Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe has described a "crisis of confidence" amid the mounting red ink that could lead even once-loyal customers to abandon use of the mail.

"I think for my generation it was a great asset - if you had a letter or package and you needed it to get up to the North Pole, you knew it would be delivered," said Jim Husa, 87, of Lawrence, Mich., after stopping to mail letters recently at his local post office. Noting the mail agency's financial woes, he added: "Times have changed, and we old-timers know that. FedEx and UPS and the Internet seem to be making the Postal Service obsolete."

Banks are promoting electronic payments, citing in part the growing uncertainty of postal mail. The federal government will stop mailing paper checks starting next year for millions of people who receive Social Security and other benefits, paying via direct deposit or debit cards instead.

First-class mail volume, which has fallen 25 percent since 2006, is projected to drop another 30 percent by 2016.

Art Sackler, co-coordinator of the Coalition for a 21st Century Postal Service, a group representing the private-sector mailing industry, said the payment defaults couldn't come at a worse time, as many major and mid-sized mailers are preparing their budgets for next year.

"The impact of the postal default may not be seen by the public, but it will be felt by the business community," he said. "Mailers will be increasingly wary about the stability of the Postal Service. The logical and likely move would be to divert more mail out of the system."

The Postal Service, an independent agency of government, does not receive taxpayer money for operations but it is subject to congressional control. It estimates that it is now losing $25 million a day, which includes projected savings it had expected to be accruing by now if Congress this spring had approved its five-year profitability plan. That plan would cut Saturday delivery, reduce low-volume postal facilities and end its obligation to pay more than $5 billion each year for future retiree health payments.

While the Senate passed a bill in April that provides an $11 billion cash infusion to help the mail agency avert a default, it also would delay many of the planned postal cuts for another year or two. The House remains stalled over a measure that allows for the aggressive cuts the Postal Service prefers; that's unlikely to move forward this year, partly due to concerns among rural lawmakers over cutbacks in their communities.

The Postal Service originally sought to close low-revenue post offices in rural areas to save money but after public opposition agreed to keep 13,000 open with shorter operating hours. The Postal Service also is delaying the closing of many mail processing centers, originally set to begin this spring. The estimated annual savings of $2.1 billion won't be realized until the full cuts are completed in late 2014.

The postal uncertainty offers opportunities for banks, which can save up to one-third of the cost of processing checks if payments are made electronically. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. (C) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) have been urging electronic transactions.

"This could be a watershed event to motivate consumers and businesses to stop writing checks," said Rodney Gardner, head of global receivables at Bank of America, who recently reviewed the topic at a conference with insurance companies.

The Postal Service, which releases third-quarter financial results next week, has projected a record $14.1 billion loss for the year. It expects to avoid bankruptcy in October only by defaulting on the two health prepayments, totaling $11.1 billion. It faces a cash crunch again next year.

Fredric Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, notes that the onerous health payment for future retirees - something not required of any other government agency or private business - is to blame for much of the post office's red ink. He faults Congress for mandating the payments in 2006, saying they force the post office every year into a "panic mode that absorbs energy and resources" rather than focusing on longer-term innovation.

"The word 'default' sounds ominous, but in reality this is a default on the part of Congress," Rolando said.

In 2007 and 2008, the Postal Service initially had profits of roughly $3 billion but fell into the red after making the health payments. In more recent years, it has suffered annual losses of $2 billion to $5 billion even after factoring out the health payments; by 2016, the mail agency expects to lose $21.3 billion a year, of which $5.8 billion will be caused by that payment.

Peter Nesvold, a financial analyst with Jefferies and Co., says the post office's financial future will depend on how Congress resolves its conflict over the mail agency's core mission. While the Postal Service is a business expected to stay afloat, it also has a legal obligation to provide uniform first-class mail service even to sparsely populated, far-flung areas of the U.S., all for the same price of a 45-cent postage stamp. UPS and FedEx don't deliver to those areas that are less profitable, contracting with the Postal Service to get the job done.

Last year, first-class mail contributed to 49 percent of the Postal Service's total revenue; by 2016, that share will drop to 41 percent. The mail agency has been seeking to pick up the slack by promoting its fast-growing package business as a cheaper alternative to FedEx and UPS, as well as encouraging more use of "standard mail," which are advertising circulars and catalogs often referred to as "junk mail."

Linda Graham, a postmaster in Hope, Alaska, says she understands the Postal Service's financial dilemma. Her rural postal branch may see its hours reduced from eight to four hours a day. "I feel that right now the post office is really grasping to try to make things work. I mean, they're losing money," she said.

Graham acknowledges her postal branch could probably get by if it were open just 6 hours a day, but believes that a bigger cut would be "suicide" for the town because of the role it plays as a community gathering place. "That's a real concern. So I just tell people, write more letters, buy more stamps," she said.


My Way

Turkey army checks weather conditions for artillery-missile strike

Turkish military sources reported Monday that the Turkish general command had checked with metrological forecasters about the right weather conditions over the Turkish-Syrian border for a cross-border, precision missile and artillery strike. The military are focusing on northern and northeastern Syria, where Assad has given the Turkish PKK bases of operation. Turkey continues to augment its border strength with troops and anti-air missiles.


Debka file

Iran warns Turkey of harsh response if it attacks Syria

If Turkey attacks Syria the Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact will be activated, said Iranian sources.

Debkafile

Turkish military convoy heads for Syrian border

Turkey sent a convoy of about 20 vehicles carrying troops, missile batteries and armoured vehicles to the border with Syria on Monday amid growing concern in Turkey about security on its southern frontier, news reports and witnesses said.

It was the latest in a series of deployments in the region in recent weeks. There has been no indication that Turkish forces will cross the border, and the troop movements may be strictly precautionary in the face of spiralling violence in Syria.

The convoy left a base in Gaziantep province to head south to Kilis province, where the troops will stay, the state-run Anatolian news agency said.

Witnesses said the troops and vehicles had left a major highway and were now stationed along a fenced-off section on the frontier with Syria.

Television footage showed at least six armoured vehicles atop trucks traveling along an asphalt road. Buses and covered trucks that appeared to be personnel carriers were also in the convoy.

Turkey, a member of NATO, in recent months has conducted a number of troop deployments along its 911-km (566 mile) border with Syria, which is in the throes of an insurgency seeking to topple President Bashar al-Assad.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a former Assad ally, is now among his most vocal critics, calling for him to step down from power amid the 16-month uprising that has killed thousands of Syrian civilians.

Tensions between the neighbours hit a peak on June 22, when Syrian forces shot down a Turkish military reconnaissance aircraft, killing two pilots.

Kilis houses a major refugee centre for Syrians fleeing the violence at home. About 44,000 refugees are in Turkey.

Erdoğan last week warned the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an armed militant group that has launched attacks inside Turkey, against setting up camps inside northern Syria.

That area, which has a large Kurdish population, has been spared much of the violence seen elsewhere in Syria, but Turkey is worried the PKK could exert influence there amid a power vacuum and threaten Turkish security at the border.

The PKK has waged a 27-year campaign for autonomy in Turkey's largely Kurdish southeast, and more than 40,000 people have died in the conflict.




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