Preparing for escalation? Security officials are taking the threat of long-range rockets being fired at central Israel from the Gaza Strip seriously, and have decided to hold a drill to prepare for such scenario.
The exercise, to be held in the Tel Aviv area next month, will simulate rocket attacks on central Israel that are not undertaken in the framework of an all-out regional war, unlike previous missile drills.
The "Hit to the Heart" drill will be held on March 14 in the form of a war game held by senior officials and simulating rocket attacks launched without prior warning.
The exercise will involve the National Emergency Authority, IDF Home Front Command, the national information headquarters, Israel Police, Magen David Adom emergency services, the Ministry of Public Security and the Education Ministry.
Rocket to 'hit' mall
According to the scenario to be simulated, immediately after an anti-rocket siren throughout central Israel the Home Front Command’s hotline will receive tens of thousands of calls from residents wondering why the siren sounded and seeking further instructions.
In the framework of the drill, two minutes after the siren will sound, two rockets will be landing in the center of the country – one in Ramat Gan’s Ayalon Mall and the other in southern Tel Aviv.
As the war game is aimed for senior commanders, no actual siren will be activated and the public will not be asked to take part in the exercise.
At this time,Hamas is believed to possess Fajr-5 rockets that are capable of reaching central Israel. The IDF’s Iron Dome anti-rocket system is meant to provide protection against such incoming missiles.
Ynet
Today was another tale of two worlds as stocks outperformed everything as broadly speaking risk assets leaked notably lower post Europe's close and accelerated post Nowotny. Financials led the exuberance (in stocks not credit) on a day when volume was certainly not terrible and credit market indices tracked stocks (ES) almost tick for tick (which along with desk chatter suggested little activity in credit today as credit dealers reracked along with futures movements). HYG dipped significantly into the close - after a decent drop in the middle of the day that was saved - only to be held up by its VWAP. For the second day in a row, VIX closed higher on a higher S&P close and implied correlation is sending those trend fade warnings once again but it was the broad-based disregard for any and every other asset class today (by stocks) - as Treasuries remained near their low yields of the day, Crude, Gold and the commodity complex all sold off, FX carry reverted back to risk-off after Europe closed, and apart from a minor leak higher in the last hour bond curves were notably flatter - that was surprising (and unusual in recent weeks/months). In the medium-term, credit remains considerably less sanguine than stocks here and the late day disappointment from Nowotny ahead of LTRO2 may have just taken the jam out of the equity market's doughnut for now.
The trading day seemed broken into 5 segments. Through the European market (early morning), risk was leaking lower broadly speaking as all asset classes stayed together. Then around 8am ET, Crude and Gold took off while the rest of risk assets deteriorated (looked like a QE/LTRO trade), then as the US opened, risk assets awoke broadly even as Treasuries remained at their low yields of the day. This print-fest-prone action lasted until Europe closed at which all momentum was lost. Stocks leaked higher as broad risk assets drifted lower (and Treasuries remained bid). Then finally Nowotny's comments incited some realization that the ECB is really not (at least not yet) a bottomless pit of money for everyone to borrow and lever forever, which saw commodities leg lower, USD leak higher, VIX accelerate higher (inverted on the chart), and even stocks give some back (as AAPL and the financials also gave some back right at the death).
HYG tried and failed in the middle of the day to sell-off as once again a decent drop was saved from nowhere (as it crossed Friday's closing VWAP and today's VWAP at the time). Credit indices tracked rather remarkably well to ES for a change, suggesting little actual flow occurring - although we do note that when HYG dipped, so IG and HY were also underperforming - only to catch up at the close.
Trying to put today's equity strength in CONTEXT, the following charts may help. Upper left shows the equity ETF (SPY) diverging upwards notably away from its empirical relationship with Vol (VXX), rates (TLT), and credit (HYG). Upper right shows the more broad-based CONTEXT (our proxy for risk assets overall) deteriorating from around the European market close - even as stocks leaked higher and higher.
In the lower left, our VIX model (based on equity/credit/vol relationships) was once again very informative as the aggressive open to VIX (over 19%) was well above where equity and credit would have thought. VIX compressed back to 'fair' but there was a clear demand for macro-protection as it pushed higher into and after the European market close. The last hour of the day saw correlations (lower right chart) start to pick up once again as equities regained some sanity and drofted lower with risk assets.
FX was volatile with a slow drift lower (vs USD) broadly into the US open (aside from JPY which gained over 1% from Friday's close). AUD rallied handsomely to drive broad risk assets up on carry but as Europe closed all that exuberance faded once again and we limped lower in JPY and USD and sideways in EUR and DXY broadly - to end with the USD +0.2% or so from Friday's close.
Commodities were extremely volatile as tomorrow's LTRO print-fest remains front-and-center. WTI wobbled around $108-109 but eventually lost $108 post Nowotny - even though the Brent-WTI spread was stable around $15.5 all day (since Thursday now). Gold is modestly down (along with Silver) as they tracked USD's moves with a higher beta today.
Treasuries rallied almost 7bps in the long-bond today before giving a little back into the close and 2s10s30s dropped 4-5bps overall dragging risk off in general.
Zero Hedge
While one of the biggest complaints of #OccupyWallStreet protesters, and much of the balance of middle-class America, continues to be the burden of student loans, the paradox is that, as the USA Today reports once again on one of its favorite subjects, student loans are set to surpass $1 trillion in total notional for the first time in history on what appears to be relentless demand and interest for this cheap form of educational financing, making this debt burden the single largest form of consumer debt, well bigger than outstanding credit card debt, and smaller only compared to mortgage debt. "The amount of student loans taken out last year crossed the $100 billion mark for the first time and total loans outstanding will exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year. Americans now owe more on student loans than on credit cards, reports the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Students are borrowing twice what they did a decade ago after adjusting for inflation, the College Board reports. Total outstanding debt has doubled in the past five years — a sharp contrast to consumers reducing what's owed on home loans and credit cards." What explains this insatiable demand for this kind of debt? Well, it's cheap, it's easily accessible (the collateral is education), and it is fungible - a student can take out a loan, yet use part or all of the balance for tangential purchases (that iPhone 4S sure would make me cool). But this, like every other debt, comes at a price.
Per USA Today:
Taxpayers and other lenders have little risk of losing money on the loans, unlike mortgages made during the real estate bubble. Congress has given the lenders, the government included, broad collection powers, far greater than those of mortgage or credit card lenders. The debt can't be shed in bankruptcy.
The credit risk falls on young people who will start adult life deeper in debt, a burden that could place a drag on the economy in the future.
"Students who borrow too much end up delaying life-cycle events such as buying a car, buying a home, getting married (and) having children," says Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of FinAid.org.
Naturally, just like in the credit bubble days, when NINJA loans were fast and furious, the lines in front of banks stretched around the block. Banks may or may not have known that the loans would be repaid, but nobody pressured borrowers to live in that big McMansion that "demanded" $1 down and a 99.9% LTV. Sure enough, when the day of reckoning comes, it is never the fault of the person who probably should have shown some restraint, but no: after all everyone else is doing it.
Well, it is the same thing now. And with generations of people indoctrinated that only those with a college degree can be successful, it is only obvious that student debt is now the next big bubble.
"It's going to create a generation of wage slavery," says Nick Pardini, a Villanova University graduate student in finance who has warned on a blog for investors that student loans are the next credit bubble — with borrowers, rather than lenders, as the losers.
Full-time undergraduate students borrowed an average $4,963 in 2010, up 63% from a decade earlier after adjusting for inflation, the College Board reports. What's happening:
Granted, unlike with the mortgage bubble collapse, this time we know, as Zero Hedge reported earlier in the week, that everyone is on the fraud. We quote from "The Fraud At The Heart Of Student Lending Exposed - The One Sentence Everyone Should Read"
A key reason why a preponderance of the population is fascinated with the student loan market is that as USA Today reported in a landmark piece last year, it is now bigger than ever the credit card market. And as the monthly consumer debt update from the Fed reminds us, the primary source of funding is none other than the US government. To many, this market has become the biggest credit bubble in America. Why do we make a big deal out of this? Because as Bloomberg reported last night, we now have prima facie evidence that the student loan market is not only an epic bubble, but it is also the next subprime! To wit: "Vince Sampson, president, Education Finance Council, said during a panel at the IMN ABS East Conference in Miami Monday that lenders are no longer pushing loans to people who can’t afford them." Re-read the last sentence as many times as necessary for it to sink in. Yes: just like before lenders were "pushing loans to people who can't afford them" which became the reason for the subprime bubble which has since spread to prime, but was missing the actual confirmation from authorities of just this action, this time around we have actual confirmation that student loans are being actually peddled to people who can not afford them. And with the government a primary source of lending, we will be lucky if tears is all this ends in.
So... debtors know it's a bubble, lenders know it's a bubble, everyone knows it's a bubble, yet it is growing faster now than ever before.
If nothing this is a fantastic exercise in observing a slow at first, then fast-motion train wreck from the side. It is without a shadow of a doubt, that not only will the student debt bubble pop, but writedowns on amounts outstanding will be massive, potentially resulting in another hit of 50% to total notionals, or about $500 billion. And since the borrowers will be fully tapped out, and the lenders will plead ignorance, and control the regulators and administration any way, is there any doubt who will once again be forced to pay for this upcoming bail out? This is something that does notrequire a college degree to figure out...
Zero Hedge
Israeli officials say they won't warn the U.S. if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, one U.S. intelligence official familiar with the discussions told the Associated Press. The pronouncement, delivered in a series of private, top-level conversations, sets a tense tone ahead of meetings in the coming days at the White House and Capitol Hill.
Israeli officials said that if they eventually decide a strike is necessary, they would keep the Americans in the dark to decrease the likelihood that the U.S. would be held responsible for failing to stop Israel's potential attack. The U.S. has been working with the Israelis for months to persuade them that an attack would be only a temporary setback to Iran's nuclear program.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak delivered the message to a series of top-level U.S. visitors to the country, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the White House national security adviser and the director of national intelligence, and top U.S. lawmakers, all trying to close the trust gap between Israel and the U.S. over how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu delivered the same message to all the Americans who have traveled to Israel for talks, the U.S. official said.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategic negotiations.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment, and the Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, as did the Israeli Embassy.
Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the International Atomic Energy Agency has raised alarms that its uranium enrichment program might be a precursor to building nuclear weapons. The US has said it does not know whether the government has decided to weaponize its nuclear material and put it on a missile or other delivery device.
The secret warning is likely to worry US officials and begin the high level meetings with Israel and the US far apart on how to handle Iran.
But the apparent decision to keep the U.S. in the dark also stems from Israel's frustration with the White House. After a visit by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon in particular, they became convinced the Americans would neither take military action, nor go along with unilateral action by Israel against Iran. The Israelis concluded they would have to conduct a strike unilaterally -- a point they are likely to hammer home in a series of meetings over the next two weeks in Washington, the official said.
Barak will meet with top administration and congressional officials during his visit. Netanyahu arrives in Washington for meetings with President Barack Obama next week.
The behind-the-scenes warning belies the publicly united front the two sides have attempted to craft with the shuttle diplomacy to each other's capitals.
"It's unprecedented outreach to Israel to make sure we are working together to develop the plan to deter Iran from developing a nuclear weapon," and to keep them from exporting terrorism, said Maryland Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee.
He traveled there with the intelligence committee chairman, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., to meet Israel's prime minister and defense minister, along with other officials.
"We talked about the fact that sanctions are working and they are going to get a lot more aggressive," Ruppersberger added.
They also discussed talked about presenting a unified front to Iran, to counter the media reports that the two countries are at odds over how and when to attack Iran.
"We have to learn from North Korea. All those (peace) talks and stalling and they developed a nuclear weapon," he said. "We are going to send a message, enough is enough, the stalling is over. ... All options are on the table."
"I got the sense that Israel is incredibly serious about a strike on their nuclear weapons program," Rogers told CNN on Monday. "It's their calculus that the administration ... is not serious about a real military consequence to Iran moving forward.
"They believe they're going to have to make a decision on their own, given the current posture of the United States," he added.
U.S. intelligence and special operations officials have tried to keep a dialogue going with Israel, despite the high-level impasse, sharing with them options such as allowing Israel to use U.S. bases in the region from which to launch such a strike, as a way to make sure the Israelis give the Americans a heads-up, according to the U.S. official, and a former U.S. official with knowledge of the communications
Cooperation has improved on sharing of intelligence in the region, according to one current and one former U.S. official. Israel is providing key information on Syria for instance, now that the U.S. has closed its embassy and pulled out both its diplomats and intelligence officials stationed there, the U.S. official said.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/27/israelis-reportedly-dont-plan-to-notify-us-if-decision-made-to-strike-iran/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fpolitics+%28Internal+-+Politics+-+Text%29&utm_content=Google+Reader#ixzz1nhQCSpea
Pastors that are really wolves in sheep’s clothing
You knew this day was going to come, when the liberal “love gospel” preachers who, desiring to fill their seats and bank accounts, would find a way to merge apostate christianity with the Devil’s religion of Islam. That day is here.
And unto the angel of the church of the Laodiceans write; These things saith the Amen, the faithful and true witness, the beginning of the creation of God; I know thy works, that thou art neither cold nor hot: I would thou wert cold or hot. So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.” Revelation 3:14-16
Rick Warren with his new best friend, Christ rejector Cat Stevens, who changed his name to Yusef Isalm
Just recently, Rick Warren, founder and pastor of Saddleback Community Church in Orange County California, addressed the convention of the Islamic Society of North America. Warren stated that Muslims and Christians must work together to combat stereotypes, promote peace and freedom, and solve global problems. Christians and Moslems – faith mates, soul mates and now work mates! Chrislam!
Quote of the Day: “Before we “shake your hand” in responding to your letter, we ask forgiveness of the All-Merciful One and of the Muslim community around the world.” – Rick Warren in a speech to Muslims.
This weekend, the Memorial Drive Presbyterian Church in Houston along with Christian communities in Atlanta, Seattle, and Detroit will initiate a series of sermons that have been designed to produce an ecumenical reconciliation between Christianity and Islam. In addition to the sermons, the Sunday school lessons will center on the inspired teachings of the Prophet Mohammad. Qurans will be placed in the pews next to the Bibles. (NOTE: Due to the overwhelming response that this article has generated, the Pastor of Memorial Church has issued a semi-denial of the events we reported. They do not, however, deny supporting and teaching a doctrine called “Jesus in the Koran. Click here to read their semi-denial. So until other information is made available to NTEB, we will run the story as is, along with their side, and you the reader can decide what’s going on. But people, ask yourself…would any real, bible believing church try and teach it’s members about “Jesus in the Koran”? That’s blasphemy.)
The sign may be Photoshop, but the message it carries is all too real. Chrislam must be stopped now. If your church teaches this heresy - run!
The concept of Chrislam, now embraced by such preachers as Rick Warren and Robert Schuller, appears to have emerged from a program on the meaning of “love your neighbor” at Grace Fellowship Church in Atlanta, Georgia “In 2001, like most Americans, we were pretty awakened to the true Islamic presence in the world and in the United States,” says Jon Stallsmith, the outreach minister at Grace Fellowship. “Jesus says we should love our neighbors. We can’t do that without having a relationship with them.”
Stallsmith maintains that a rapprochement between Muslims and Christians can be achieved by the fact that Jesus is mentioned twenty-five times in the Quran.
The Chrislam movement has gained impetus by statements from President George W. Bush and that Christians, Jews, and Muslims all worship the same God and by Rick Warren’s reference to Isa (the Muslim name for Jesus) in his prayer at the inauguration of President Barack Obama. Only 30 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Muslims, according to a Pew Forum poll. At the same time, more than half the country says they know “not very much” or “nothing at all” about the Islamic faith. “The recent political developments and the fact that we’re fighting two wars in Muslim countries should sharpen that need to know how to talk to these guys,” Stallsmith insists “We want to find peace, reconciliation around a scriptural understanding of Jesus.”
Jesus in the Quran is neither the only-begotten Son of God nor the Messiah who was divinely appointed to restore the House of David. He is rather viewed as a prophet who was appointed by Allah to prepare mankind for the coming of Mohammad.”
Now the end Begins
