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Monday, August 8, 2011

Markets volatile following European Central Bank move



European stock markets have given up early gains, which had been triggered by the European Central Bank saying it intended to buy up government debt.

Spanish and Italian markets jumped in early trading before slipping back, while major European indexes slid sharply in mid-morning trading.

Markets tumbled last week, forcing the ECB to intervene to address concerns the debt crisis is spreading.

Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds fell sharply after the bank's move.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds - an indication of the risk associated with lending Spain money - fell from more than 6% to about 5.2%. Yields on Italian bonds fell by a similar amount.

"Thanks to the ECB's intervention, [yields have] collapsed dramatically. I can't remember the last time I saw such a big move down," said Louise Cooper at BGC Partners.

Stock market investors appeared to be less enthusiastic about the ECB's bond purchases, as they continue to worry about the US economy following Friday's downgrade of US debt by ratings agency Standard and poor.

In London and Paris the FTSE 100 and Cac 40 indexes lost almost 2%, while Frankfurt's Dax was down almost 3%.

Earlier, Asian shares had fallen due to that downgrade of US debt.

Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indexes lost 2.2%, while South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.8%.

Last week saw trillions of dollars wiped from the value of global markets, with the Dax losing about 13% of its value, the FTSE 100 dropping 10% and the Dow ending the week 5.8% lower.More wobbles?

On Sunday, the ECB indicated that it would start buying the bonds of eurozone governments, hoping to instil confidence that some of its biggest economies would not default on their debt obligations.

Bonds are essentially IOUs issued by governments, or companies, to raise cash. Governments issue new bonds to help pay maturing bonds, which is why it is so important that investors continue to buy them - if they do not, governments are unable to pay their outstanding debts.
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In a separate statement, the G7 group of developed countries said members were "determined to react in a co-ordinated manner" to preserve financial stability.

Analysts were mixed in their reaction to the ECB's move, and said the markets would be hoping to see more action from European policymakers.

"The markets are looking for a concrete plan out of Europe and the US in terms of how they are going to deal with their deficits and those plans need to be implemented," said Richard Hunter at broker Hargreaves Lansdown.

"Until the market can get comfort on these matters, there is going to be more volatility."

The intervention by the ECB is seen as a short-term measure to help calm stock markets, but what investors want to see most of all is highly-indebted countries reducing their levels of debt, by spending less and raising more in revenues.

On Friday, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced plans to balance the country's budget by 2013, a year earlier than planned, while Spain has also promised to speed up cost-saving measures.Knock-on effects
Many will see the ECB as taking a serious credit risk in bailing out two financially over-stretched governments and as behaving contrary to the rules of prudent central banking”
S&P's downgrade of US debt has also underminded investors' confidence.

"The ratings downgrade has been an unprecedented event," said Alvin Liew of UOB Bank in Singapore.

Standard & Poor's cut the US's top-notch AAA rating for the first time, citing concerns about the size of the country's budget deficit and the acrimonious and protracted battle in Congress to raise the country's debt ceiling at the eleventh hour. It has graded the US at AA+.

The fear for many investors is that the US economy will slow further, and even enter a double-dip recession.

This in turn would hurt Asia, which relies on the US, the world's biggest economy, to buy billions of dollars of exports every month.

It would also hamper efforts of governments to reduce their debt load, as it would cut tax revenues.

BBBC correspondents assess the financial markets

The downgrade was heavily criticised by the US administration, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner telling NBC news S&P had shown "terrible judgement" and a "stunning lack of knowledge about basic US fiscal budget maths".

But China, which is the world's biggest investor in US debt, has told Washington to address its high levels of debt rather than blaming S&P.

An editorial in Monday's China People's Daily newspaper, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, called on the US not to "become blind to the great risks that a weak greenback could pose to the world's fragile economic recovery by lifting dollar-denominated commodities prices".

"It is time for the US to tighten its belt and solve its structural problems, in order to resume its reputation and restore world confidence," the paper said.Gold standard

Fears of renewed global slowdown were reflected in the price of gold and oil.

Gold, which is seen as a safe investment in times of economic uncertainty, jumped to a new record high of $1,706 an ounce on increased demand.

Meanwhile the price of oil slipped further, reflecting concerns that weak global growth could lead to a fall in demand. US light crude fell 3.3% to $83.59 a barrel, while Brent crude lost 3.4% to $105.96.

"There are few places you can obviously hide," said Greg Gibbs of RBS in Sydney. "And the ones that you can hide in are doing very well. Gold is the beneficiary because there is no central bank to sell it."

BBC

Russia uses dirty tricks despite U.S. ‘reset’



In the past four years, Russia’s intelligence services have stepped up a campaign of intimidation and dirty tricks against U.S. officials and diplomats in Russia and the countries that used to form the Soviet Union.

U.S. diplomats and officials have found their homes broken into and vandalized, or altered in ways as trivial as bathroom use; faced anonymous or veiled threats; and in some cases found themselves set up in compromising photos or videos that are later leaked to the local press and presented as a sex scandal.

“The point was to show that ‘we can get to you where you sleep,’ ” oneU.S. intelligence officer told The Washington Times. “It’s a psychological kind of attack.”

Despite a stated policy from President Obama and Russian PresidentDmitry Medvedev of warm U.S.-Russian ties, the campaign of intelligence intimidation - or what the CIA calls “direct action” - has persisted throughout what both sides have called a “reset” in the relations.

They have become worse in just the past year, some U.S. officials said. Also, their targets are broadening to include human rights workers and nongovernmental organizations as well as embassy staff.

The most brazen example of this kind of intimidation was the Sept. 22 bombing attack on the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia. A National Intelligence Council assessment sent to Congress last week confirmed that the bombing was ordered by Maj. Yevgeny Borisov of Russian military intelligence, said four U.S. officials who have read the report.

False rape charge

One example of such intimidation occurred in 2009 against a senior U.S. official in the Moscow office of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), the congressionally funded nongovernmental organization that promotes democracy throughout the world. The Times has withheld the name of the official at the request of NDI.

According to a Jan. 30, 2009, cable from U.S. Ambassador John Beyrledisclosed by WikiLeaks, USAID employees received an email with a doctored photo of the NDI official reclining with an underage girl.

The email from someone purporting to be a Russian citizen accused the official of raping her 9-year-old daughter.

In the cable, Mr. Beyrle said the embassy thought the Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) was behind the smear attack, which also appeared in Russian newspapers. The FSB is the successor agency of the Soviet-era KGB.

Kathy Gest, the NDI director of public affairs, said, “The allegations recounted in the WikiLeaks memo are all false and were protested at the time. We consider the matter closed and NDI, which is legally registered in Russia, continues its programs.”

Former Sen. Christopher S. Bond, who served as the vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence between 2007 and 2010, said he had raised the issue of Russian intimidation of U.S. diplomats with the Obama administration.

“We are concerned about the acts of intimidation as well as their record on previous agreements and other activities,” Mr. Bond said. “It’s a real concern, I’ve raised it. It’s not the intelligence committeethat fails to understand the problem. It’s the Obama administration.”

Yevgeny Khorishko, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, said accusations that Russian diplomats have stepped up intimidation of U.S. officials were false.

Washington Times

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Jim Rogers about S&P downgrade

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AAA mageddon

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Sunday, August 7, 2011

United States urges its citizens to leave Syria immediately


By REUTERS
08/06/2011


State Department warns that amid "ongoing uncertainty, volatility," US citizens are urged to leave immediately while transportation is available.
Talkbacks (11)

WASHINGTON - Americans in Syria are encouraged to leave and travel to the country should be postponed, the US State Department said on Friday following widespread violence that has pitted thousands of protesters against the government.

The State Department warned that given the "ongoing uncertainty and volatility" US citizens are urged to leave immediately while transportation is still available. The advisory also encouraged Americans who remain to limit any nonessential travel within the country.

The advisory expands a travel warning issued in late April that ordered eligible family members of US government employees and certain non-emergency personnel to leave.

Syrian security forces on Friday killed at least 18 protesters in attacks on tens of thousands of protesters who poured into the streets to demonstrate against the rule of President Bashar Assad on the first Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

The four-month-old uprising has grown increasingly violent in recent days as tanks have launched an attack on the central city of Hama in an effort to quell pro-democracy protesters. An estimated 300 people have been killed since the military assault began on Sunday on the city of 700,000 people in central Syria.

The Syrian protesters are defying a bloody military crackdown on uprisings that began in March against some 41 years of Assad family domination.

The White House said US President Barack Obama and leaders from France and Germany have agreed to take measures to pressure Assad over his crackdown, but so far they have not outlined what those steps might be.




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