Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, gave the stark warning about the risk of a record price spike after unveiling its annual results.
The Swiss-based trading house - which is privately owned - said it had notched up record revenues of $297bn for 2011, putting it far ahead of rivals such as Glencore and Trafigura. Vitol’s sales were up 44pc from $206bn last year on volumes of oil, carbon and gas trade of 457m tonnes, up from 399m tonnes in 2010. The company’s results - which do not include profit numbers - are just $78bn shy of BP’s annual revenues.
Ian Taylor, Vitol chief executive, said the likelihood of an Israeli air strike on Iran had increased and was likely to push oil prices to $150 a barrel.
“I used to think this would never happen but everyone you speak to says the Israelis will have a go at striking at Iranian nuclear sites,” he said.
“The day that happens, you have to believe the Iranians throw a few mines in the Strait of Hormuz and for a few hours at least, or maybe more, I cannot see a scenario where prices would not be at that sort of level [$150 a barrel].”
Suspicions over Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability have also provoked the US and Europe to ratchet up sanctions and impose tougher financial measures on Tehran. Western diplomats say sanctions aim to cut Iran’s oil revenues. Iran claims its nuclear programme limited to electricity generation - but this has not placated the international community, especially Israel.
The European Union declared it would embargo Iranian oil imports from July 1 - leaving about 500,000 barrels per day which need a new home. But Iran is defiant that it will find other customers to sell its oil to - and retaliated by ordering an immediate halt to oil sales to British and French companies.
Hedge funds and other money managers also jacked up their wagers on advancing oil prices by 14pc, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
For Mr Taylor, the price problem is exasperated in Europe by the decline in the value of the euro versus the dollar, which has risen the cost of dollar-denominated oil sales to EU countries.
“The Iranians now want the price as high as possible as they’ve got less volumes to sell. I reckon they are probably quite close to winning based on the numbers. That was what everybody in the industry always thought would be the likely result,” said Taylor.
“The politicians are all avoiding the subject at the moment but as you know oil is extremely expensive, especially in euros,” he said.
Brent crude traded just above $121 a barrel on Tuesday, up from $107 a barrel at the start of 2012 but below a record high of $147 in 2008. In euros, oil was near a record high of €91.8 a barrel last week, compared with a record €93.46 in July 2008.
Telegraph
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