Guess What Happened The Last Time Bond Yields Crashed Like This?…

If a major financial crisis was approaching, we would expect to see the “smart money” getting out of stocks and pouring into government bonds that are traditionally considered to be “safe” during a crisis.  This is called a “flight to safety” or a “flight to quality“.  In the past, when there has been a “flight to quality” we have seen yields for German government bonds and U.S. government bonds go way down.  As you will see below, this is exactly what we witnessed during the financial crisis of 2008.  U.S. and German bond yields plummeted as money from the stock market was dumped into bonds at a staggering pace.  Well, it is starting to happen again.  In recent months we have seen U.S. and German bond yields begin to plummet as the “smart money” moves out of the stock market.  So is this another sign that we are on the precipice of a significant financial panic?

Back in 2008, German bonds actually began to plunge well before U.S. bonds did.  Does that mean that European money is “smarter” than U.S. money?  That would certainly be a very interesting theory to explore.  As you can see from the chart below, the yield on 10 year German bonds started to fall significantly during the summer of 2008 – several months before the stock market crash in the fall…

So what are German bonds doing today?

As you can see from this next chart, the yield on 10 year German bonds has been steadily falling since the beginning of last year.  At this point, the yield on 10 year German bonds is just barely above zero…

And amazingly, most German bonds that have a maturity of less than 10 years actually have a negative yield right now.  That means that investors are going to get back less money than they invest.  This is how bizarre the financial markets have become.  The “smart money” is so concerned about the “safety” of their investments that they are actually willing to accept negative yields.  I don’t know why anyone would ever put their money into investments that have a negative yield, but it is actually happening.  The following comes from Yahoo…

The world’s scarcest resource right now is safe yield, and the shortage is getting more extreme. Most German government bonds that mature in less than 10 years now have negative yields – part of some $2 trillion worth of paper with yields below zero.

This is what happens when the European Central Bank begins a trillion-euro bond-buying binge with rates already miniscule.

Yesterday, ECB boss Mario Draghi – unfazed by the protest stunt at his press conference – reaffirmed his plan to keep bidding for paper that yields more than -0.2% – that’s minus 0.2%.

Yes, the ECB is driving a lot of this, but it is still truly bizarre.

So what about the United States?

Well, first let’s take a look at what happened back in 2008.  In the chart below, you can see the “flight to safety” that took place in late 2008 as investors started to panic…

And we have started to witness a similar thing happen in recent months.  The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries has plummeted as investors have looked for safety.  This is exactly the kind of chart that we would expect to see if a financial crisis was brewing…

What makes all of this far more compelling is the fact that so many other patterns that we have witnessed just prior to past financial crashes are happening once again.

Yes, there are other potential explanations for why bond yields have been going down.  But when you add this to all of the other pieces of evidence that a new financial crisis is rapidly approaching, quite a compelling case emerges.

For those that do not follow my website regularly, I encourage you to check out the following articles to get an idea of what I am talking about…

-“Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…”

-“Not Just Oil: Guess What Happened The Last Time Commodity Prices Crashed Like This?…”

-“10 Key Events That Preceded The Last Financial Crisis That Are Happening Again RIGHT NOW”

-“Guess What Happened The Last Time The U.S. Dollar Skyrocketed In Value Like This?…”

-“7 Signs That A Stock Market Peak Is Happening Right Now”

-“Guess What Happened The Last Two Times The S&P 500 Was Up More Than 200% In Six Years?”

Of course no two financial crashes ever look exactly the same.

The crisis that we are moving toward is not going to be precisely like the crisis of 2008.

But there are similarities and patterns that we can look for.  When things start to get bad, investors act in predictable ways.  And so many of the things that we are watching right now are just what we would expect to see in the lead up to a major financial crisis.

Sadly, most people are not willing to learn from history.  Even though it is glaringly apparent that we are in a historic financial bubble, most investors on Wall Street cannot see it because they do not want to see it.  They want to believe that somehow “things are different this time” and that stocks will just continue to go up indefinitely so that they can keep making lots and lots of money.

And despite what you may think, I actually want this bubble to continue for as long as possible.  Despite all of our problems, life is still relatively good in America today – at least compared to what is coming.

I like to refer to this next crisis as our “third strike”.

Back in 2000 and 2001, the dotcom bubble burst and we experienced a painful recession, but we didn’t learn any lessons.  That was strike number one.

Then came the financial crash of 2008 and the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.  But we didn’t learn any lessons from that either.  Instead, we just reinflated the same old financial bubbles and kept on making the exact same mistakes as before.  That was strike number two.

This next financial crisis will be strike number three.  After this next crisis, I don’t believe that there will ever be a return to “normal” for the United States.  I believe that this is going to be the crisis that unleashes hell in our nation.

So no, I am not eager for that to come.  Even though there is no way that this bubble of debt-fueled false prosperity can last indefinitely, I would like for it to last at least a little while longer.

Because what comes after it is going to be truly terrible.

Credit to Economic Collapse

Jade Helm Is Tightening the Noose Around America’s Neck

I have never covered a topic where the flow of information is so voluminous and equally disturbing. There has never been a topic that I have covered that has been so dangerous to the safety of all Americans. The size of scope of Jade Helm is beyond comprehension. For the first time, I am wondering if I should make plans to immediately leave the country because there are people who want to do me serious harm.

We Have Everything to Fear and Then You Should Get Mad!

The elite are masters at controlling the narrative. Almost a generation ago, they labeled anyone who dared to mistrust the words of known liars as tin-foil-hat-wearing “conspiracy theorists”/ The term conspiracy theorist became a conditioned response which described “crazy people” who doubt the actions and statements of known liars from the government. And of course there is no such thing as two bad people getting together to plan to do something evil. I guess that Oklahoma City, the Twin Towers, Ruby Ridge, Waco, the Batman shooting, the Boston Marathon, and the 7/7 London bombings were just figments of our imagination. The four million people have died in Middle East countries that we have invaded are also just figments of our imagination.

As the Independent media began to fight back against the globalist PSYOPS to cover their wrongdoings, the elite came up with a counter PSYOPS. And now, anyone who points out government wrong doing is a “fearmonger” and this term has a companion term, “fear porn”. Subsequently, anyone who dares to promote any wrongdoing, on the part of the elite or the government, is engaged in fearmongering, and as such, should be ignored.

Only a Moron Would Not Be Afraid

When it comes to Jade Helm, I want you to be fearful and then I want you to get mad. Fear is the strongest motivator among the human emotions. The most unified this country has ever been happened during World War II when we feared being conquered by the Japanese and the Germans. That fear motivated an unparalleled coalescence of thinking and cooperative effort. Today, we need to tap into this emotion, or many of us are not going to survive.

Am I confident that we can accomplish rousing the nation to action against the tyranny posed by Jade Helm? I am not the least bit confident.  And even if Jade Helm ends up being no more than a drill (not likely), Jade Helm’s successor will have learned lessons from what is about to transpire in America. To the cognitive dissonance crowd, I would say that these people are practicing to subjugate you for a reason.

In the meantime, I want to present a small cross-section of communications I have received from Americans all across this country who are fearful of Jade Helm.

FEMA Camps Are Out in the Open

The morning fearmongering brief begins with a reminder that the leaked Army document FM-3-39.40 provides the stunning details of what constitutes a FEMA camp and who will comprise the “detainees”. Further, I have previously identified Camp Grayling in N. Michigan as a huge FEMA camp. Of course the government says the facility is merely for training. If that is true then why are the Michigan Army Reserves and National Guard going to Guantanamo to train this summer? Learn to lift up the covers and ask the right questions.

This FEMA camp facility in Grayling, MI., is the sight of martial law training for the Michigan National guard commencing on July 15, the inception date for Jade Helm. This facility also houses hundreds of UN military vehicles.

Below is an email from couple in N. Michigan who knows how to ask the right questions after staying vigilant.

_____

Hello Mr. Hodges,

I live in Northern Michigan in Osceola county right next to highway 131. My wife and I have lived here for many years and we have never seen the massive amounts of military vehicles on the highway like we seen yesterday! I think this information can validate some of the information in your recent article “Jade Helm is designed to take America directly into WWIII”.

My wife called me over to the window to look at this huge convoy of military trucks heading North. I ran outside to get a closer look and they were still driving by. This is by far the largest convoy of military vehicles we have ever seen. Therewere at least 200 trucks pulling flat-bed trailers that had what looked like canons on the trailers. Each trailer had two of these brown/tan canon looking things and each of these things also had wheels and trailer hitches on them. These things look like they could be pulled by humvees. I have never seen these before or anything even close to what these things were and I served in the military from 1989-1992. Each round cylinder (canon barrel?) was about 30″ – 36″ inches in diameter and about ten feet long, so these might be some type of flak gun. They were huge! Also, there has been a lot of military type aircraft flying over the past week or so. And yes, I have seen the massive FEMA camp located at Camp Grayling, but they say it is just for training (yeah right). I just wanted to pass along this info to you.

God Bless and thank you for your hard work!

___

 Lt. Col. Potter Connects the “Red List” with Jade Helm

If the previous anecdotal account, with accompanying documentation is not enough to bring out the fear, then listen to the words of Lt. Col. Potter as he tells talk show host, Pete Santilli, that Jade Helm will soon be carrying out Red List executions prior to imposing martial law.

Thugs Are Invading Our Neighborhoods

From videos like the one below we see massive amounts of troops. This event may be in Ontario, CA., but it may as well be in your neighborhood. Here we see jack-booted thugs marching in their combat gear through a neighborhood near you.

And there are more foreign troops being spotted on our soil.

Dear Dave,

I live near Redding California.
For the past year I have noticed groups of young Chinese men in Red jackets/ black pants, at a bus stop along the side of Costco. Here is a picture I took recently, from across the street. There were about 20 of them. I mentioned this to a friend who is a retired police officer. He said “oh, they are here taking flight instruction at the airport”. I find this strange , but not in light of everything else we are seeing with Jade Helm.
God bless you and the work you are doing to help inform those who are awake and listening. Time is indeed short!

_____

Who is This Massive Military Hardware Going to be Unleashed Against?

From the Barstow area, there is a massive military hardware buildup. The locals are scared to death. I am in communication with a retired Sheriff’s Deputy who has occasion to deliver product to the base in the video below and he routinely sees Russian soldiers in uniform training at this base.

Judicial Watch, Hamas, Hezbollah, Russia and ISIS

ISIS base camp near El Paso.

Informed Americans were stunned when they learned of the presence of an ISIS camp eight miles from El Paso, TX.Judicial Watch connected ISIS to the Mexican drug cartels. As I covered two days ago, Hama and Hezbollah are connected to the cartels. And now it seems that this unholy alliance has a silent, but participating partner, and that would be Russia and her Western Hemisphere allies. These dots will soon be connected.

The photo below, might be why Texas is preparing to be invaded as evidenced by the photos of Surface to Air Missiles found on the ground 45 miles southeast of Lubbock, TX.

Surface to air missiles.

How much more real does Jade Helm have to get where you finally reach the point where fear motivates you.

Conclusion

It is time to allow yourself to feel fear and the accompanying rage that goes with a development such as this. How dare this criminal administration practice extracting Americans to FEMA camps with our own tax dollars. This should scare the hell of you and the accompanying rage should motivate you to action.

 Credit to Common Sense

Assad: ISIS Was Created in Iraq, ‘Under the Supervision of the Americans’

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was created in Iraq in 2006 “under the supervision of the Americans,” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told French television in an interview broadcast on Monday.

With the civil war in its fifth year, Assad presented a customarily defiant face in the interview with France 2 TV, denying using chemical weapons or “barrel bombs” against his foes, denying that Iranian troops were fighting in support of his regime, and accusing the West and regional Arab states of supporting the infiltration of terrorists into Syria.

Asked whether he had helped ISIS to emerge in order to present himself as “a shield” against the terrorists, Assad bristled.

“ISIS was created in Iraq in 2006 under the supervision of the Americans,” he said, according to a transcript provided by the official SANA news agency. “I wasn’t controlling Iraq. The Americans controlled Iraq, and ISIS came from Iraq to Syria, because chaos is contagious.”

(The Syrian leader was alluding to ISIS’ origins: Jordanian Sunni militant Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi renamed his jihadist group al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2004 and then Islamic State of Iraq in 2006. With its expansion into Syria, the group’s name changed in 2013 to ISIS/ISIL, a move that sparked a split with al-Qaeda and its official Syria-based affiliate, the al-Nusra Front.)

“When there is chaos in Syria, ISIS came to Syria,” Assad said. “Before ISIS came al-Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda, and before that you had the Muslim Brotherhood. They all represent the same grassroots for ISIS to come later.”

Going back to the origins of the civil war in Syria – which began in March 2011 with citizens demanding more political freedom – Assad said that from the early weeks of the conflict “the terrorists infiltrated the situation in Syria with the support of Western countries and regional countries.”

He accused the French government and others of “supporting those jihadists that they called moderate opposition.”

“The people who are supported now, who have Western armaments, they became ISIS, they were supported by your state [France], and by other Western states,” he said.

Credit to CNS

Poland Buys US Patriot Air Defense System

 

Just days after Russia lifts sanctions on Iran and prepares to send its S-300 missile defense system, it appears Washington has retaliated. As TASS reports, Poland - on Russia's doorstep - has decided to buy the US Patriot air-defense system (made by Raytheon) for a total cost of around $9bn: "The US proposal has been found to be more profitable from the viewpoint of Poland’s security and implementation of commitments within NATO framework."Washington, keen to ensure Warsaw signed up with Raytheon, has decided to loan Poland a battery of Patriots until the deal is signed.

As TASS reports,

Poland has chosen the supplier for its national missile defense system. According to the country's Defense Ministry, it is the US company Raytheon, the manufacturer of Patriot air defense missile systems.

"The US proposal has been found to be more profitable from the viewpoint of Poland’s security and implementation of commitments within NATO framework. Patriot systems are used in several countries," the ministry said.

Taking part in the tender was the Italian-French Eurosam corporation that manufactures the SANP/T systems. The Defense Ministry said one of important criteria in the selection of the air defense systems was their capability to resist Russian Iskander missile systems.

The project to form a national missile defense system in Poland is called Wisla. It envisions acquisition of eight medium-range air defense system batteries. Each of them will be equipped with GEM-T and PAC-3 MSE missiles. The Defense Ministry did not mention their quantity.

The signing of the contract is scheduled for 2016. Within three years after signing, the supplier should provide two batteries of one of available versions to Poland. The target configuration with a radar should appear in the republic in 2022-2025.

*  *  *

As The FT notes, Raytheon’s Patriot system will give Poland the ability to defend itself against air missiles and military aircraft...

Washington was keen for Poland to choose Raytheon’s missile system, and has agreed to loan Warsaw a temporary set of Patriot batteries until the purchased products are delivered.

...procurement decisions were fraught with delays and controversy because of heavy lobbying from all sides and Warsaw’s desire to ensure it balanced geopolitical concerns and its needs to increase employment.

Credit to Zero Hedge 

Russian Interference Leaves Israel No Choice

The Obama Doctrine – scorn your friends, reward your enemies – has finally reaped the whirlwind, namely Russia and its pledge to provide Iran with an array of the most advanced “defensive” missiles on earth. This leaves Israel with no choice except to act BEFORE those missiles are deployed. 

Israel must attack to remove those nukes before it’s too late.

If it was difficult to successfully strike Iran’s nuclear facilities today, tomorrow will be near impossible. So the scientific experts tell us.

The S-300 Surface-to-Air Missile System would provide Iran with an impenetrable shield.
It’s been explained that the S-300 Surface-to-Air Missile System would provide Iran with an impenetrable shield.

If anything, Russia’s move has clarified the situation. Israel’s duty to defend itself has never been more urgent and an attack scaled to wipe out Iran’s nuclear emplacements would likewise be a favor to any number of Sunni states that tremble from Iran’s Shiite encroachments throughout the Arab world.

Read this for one newsman’s heroic efforts to stop a worldwide caliphate, reminding readers that “The Koran Has Arrived And It Has Come To Devour The Bible.”

Jordan’s King Abdullah II told Fox News’ Bret Baier that somebody better do something, quick, seeing Iran on the prowl throughout the Middle East and beyond:  “You’ve got to connect all these dots together. All these issues are areas of instability,” declared Abdullah in connection to Iran’s heavy footprints throughout the region.

He cited Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan and his own country as being at risk.

Abdullah did not directly call for help from the United States or Israel, but the hint was unmistakable.

On seeking a deal to stop or stall Iran’s nuclear program, America’s infantile negotiators, led by John Kerry were no match for the ayatollahs. These were children bargaining with grown men. The ayatollahs trifled with Obama’s “best and brightest” during the negotiations and scorned them as laughable losers after the negotiations.

The result was no deal at all. Iran gets to keep arming itself with no one to stop it from growing bolder.

Certainly the United States, under Obama, cannot be counted on to come to the rescue. Thus, a vacuum waiting to be filled.

Enter Vladimir Putin, who saw the perfect opening, an opening he’s been waiting for along the decades to replace America as the dominant world power in the Middle East. He can’t be blamed. Russia does what Russia does because it is Russia. But the United States has no excuse for being so lame.

Putin and the ayatollahs must be dancing at finding Obama and Kerry so easily duped, 

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu phoned Putin to voice his displeasure. Apparently Netanyahu was assured that these missiles for Iran are weapons meant only for defense – which is terrible enough since the system could destroy (Israeli) jets trying to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

But as noted in a recent column here, during the Cuban Missile Crisis Putin’s ancestor Nikita Khrushchev gave similar assurances to John F. Kennedy. No worries. Those missiles are only defensive. Until it turned out differently and the United States was ready to go to war – world war! – to get those Soviet arms removed from Cuba, be they defensive or offensive or both.

Israel finds itself in the same perilous spot as regards Iran. There is no choice but to take action now.

Jack Engelhard writes a regular column for Arutz Sheva. The new thriller from the New York-based novelist, The Bathsheba Deadline, a heroic editor’s singlehanded war on terror and against media bias. Engelhard wrote the int’l bestseller Indecent Proposal that was translated into more than 22 languages and turned into a Paramount motion picture starring Robert Redford and Demi Moore. Website: www.jackengelhard.com

Credit to Arutz Sheva

A Step By Step Guide How To Crash The Entire Market

While we already noted that the CFTC and the DOJ have gone full scapegoat retard, by blaming the entire flash crash on one solitary trader (operating out of the UK no less), which means that Waddell & Reed should now sue the SEC for hundreds of millions in lost fees and defamation, it is worth re-emphasizing the hubris and the audacity that these "regulators" have, to assume that sophisticated market participants are truly dumb enough to believe any of this is just shocking.

In any event, going with the bullshit story concocted by the confused brains at the CFTC (whose former head when all this happened, is now being groomed by Hillary Clinton to be America's next Treasury Secretary), and for all those who wish to follow in the "rogue" ES trader's footsteps, here is how Navinder Singh Sarao singlehandedly crashed the entire market, leading to the single biggest loss in market capitalization in history.

From the charging document:

Defendants aggressively used both the Layering Algorithm and the 188/289-Lot Spoofmg strategies on May 6, 2010, the 2010 Flash Crash day.

Defendants first turned on the Layering Algorithm at 9:20a.m. CT, placing four orders, totaling 2,100 contracts. These orders were each one tick apart, starting three ticks from the best ask. The orders were modified 604 times over the following six minutes so the orders were always at the third level of the sell-side of the order book or deeper, and then canceled with no executions, as the Layering Algorithm was turned off. While the first cycle of the Layering Algorithm was active, the E-mini S&P price fell39 basis points.

While the first cycle of the Layering Algorithm was active, Defendants bought 1,606 contracts and sold 1,032 contracts.

Defendants' use of the Layering Algorithm and the 188/289-Lot Spoofing intensified throughout the day. At 11:17 a.m. CT, Defendants turned the Layering Algorithm on for more than two consecutive hours, until 1 :40 p.m. CT. During this cycle, Defendants utilized the Layering Algorithm to place five orders, totaling 3,000 contracts. A sixth order was added at around 1:13 p.m. CT, increasing the total to 3,600 contracts.

These orders represented approximately $170 million to over $200 million worth of persistent downward pressure on the E-mini S&P price and, over the next two hours, represented 20-29% of the entire sell-side of the Order Book. The orders were replaced or modified more than 19,000 times before being canceled at 1 :40 p.m. CT. At that time, the Order Book was severely imbalanced and Defendants' 3,600 Layering Algorithm orders were almost equal to the entire buyside of the Order Book. In total, the Layering Algorithm was on for over four hours and 25 minutes on May 6, 2010.

In addition to the Layering Algorithm, Defendants aggressively utilized the 188/289-Lot Spoofing which intensified the Layering Algorithm's effects. Between 12:33 p.m. CT -1:45 p.m. CT, Defendants placed a total of 135 orders with 188 or 289 lots on the sell-side of the Order Book, totaling 32,046 contracts. Ofthese 135 188/289-lot orders, 132 orders were canceled without resulting in execution.

Between 11:17 a.m. CT and 1:40 p.m. CT, Defendants' actions contributed to an extreme order book imbalance in the E-mini S&P market. This order book imbalance contributed to market conditions that caused theE-mini S&P price to fall361 basis points.

During this two-hour period, Defendants traded 62,077 E-mini S&P contracts with a notional value of$3.5 billion.

On May 6, 2010, Defendants caused an artificially low price to exist in the lead month of the E-mini S&P contract.

So now that you know how to crash the entire stock market single handedly, please do. Because this is not a "market." As we said in July 2010,  "It's Not A Market, It's An HFT 'Crop Circle' Crime Scene."

And finally, this:

In addition to the Layering Algorithm, Defendants frequently manually "flashed" large-lot orders in a variety of lot sizes in the Order Book that were quickly canceled with no intention of these orders resulting in trades. At times during the Relevant Period, the Flash Spoofing was used with and to amplify the impact of the Layering Algorithm. At other times, Defendants' Flash Spoofing was used alone to benefit Defendants' trading strategies

In other words, 5 years after Zero Hedge first explained precisely what happened on May 6, 2010, the CFTC finally admits that the flash crash was not due to Waddell & Reed, but due to HFTs and quote stuffing.

Credit to Zero Hedge