Recession 2016: In Some States, A Very Deep Economic Downturn Has Already Arrived

Did you know that there are some U.S. states that have already officially fallen into recession?  Economic activity all over the planet is in the process of slowing down, and there are some areas of the country that are really starting to feel the pain.  In particular, any state that is heavily dependent on the energy industry is hurting right now.  During the years immediately following the last recession, the energy industry was the primary engine for the growth of good paying jobs in America, but now that process is completely reversing.  All over the U.S. energy companies are going under, and thousands upon thousands of good jobs are being lost.

On Sunday evening, Bloomberg published an article entitled “The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality“. The following is an excerpt from that article…

As economists size up the chances of the first nationwide slump since 2009, pockets of the country are already contracting. Four states — Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — are in a recession, and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics.

The three additional states that are “at risk of prolonged declines” are Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma.  What all of those seven states have in common is a strong dependence on the energy industry.  Last year, 67 oil and gas companies in the United States filed for bankruptcy, and approximately 130,000 good paying energy jobs were lost.

If the price of oil does not go back up, this could be just the beginning.  It is being reported that a whopping 35 percent of all oil and gas companies around the planet are at risk of falling into bankruptcy, and the financial institutions that have been backing these energy companies are getting very nervous.

Of course things could shift dramatically for oil and gas companies if World War 3 suddenly erupts in the Middle East, and that could literally happen at any time.  But for the moment the outlook for the energy industry continues to be quite dreary.

Let us also keep in mind that the problems for the U.S. economy are not limited to the energy industry.  According to CNBC, corporate profits in the United States have now declined for three straight quarters, and this is the very first time this has happened since the last recession…

With 87 percent of the S&P 500 reporting, total blended fourth-quarter earnings have shown a decline of 3.6 percent, according to FactSet. Assuming the trend holds up, it will mark the first time profits have fallen for three straight quarters since 2009.

But the road ahead doesn’t get any easier.

FactSet is now projecting that earnings will decline 6.9 percent in the first quarter, a stunning move lower over time considering that in September the expectation was for 4.8 percent growth.

As corporate profits fall, layoffs are starting to increase.  Just the other day we learned that the number of job cuts in this country shot up 218 percent during the month of January according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

It is starting to look very much like 2008 all over again, and I am convinced that it will soon be much, much harder to find work in America.

Here are some more numbers that indicate that the U.S. is heading into a major economic slowdown…

–U.S. exports were down 7 percent on a year over year basis in December.

–U.S. manufacturing activity has been in contraction for four months in a row.

–U.S. factory orders have fallen for 14 months in a row.

–The Restaurant Performance Index in the United States has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since 2008.

–Orders for Class 8 trucks in the United States dropped by 48 percent on a year over year basis in January.

But the mainstream media continues to try to convince all of us that everything is going to be just fine.  Earlier today, CNN ran an article entitled “U.S. recession fears fade after market rally“, and the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “The U.S. Economy Is in Good Shape” that got a tremendous amount of attention.

Well, if the U.S. economy is in such great shape, then why are some of the biggest retailers in the entire nation shutting down stores at a frightening pace.  The following list of store closures comes from one of my previous articles…

-Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

-K-Mart is closing down more than two dozen stores over the next several months.

-J.C. Penney will be permanently shutting down 47 more stores after closing a total of 40 stores in 2015.

-Macy’s has decided that it needs to shutter 36 stores and lay off approximately 2,500 employees.

-The Gap is in the process of closing 175 stores in North America.

-Aeropostale is in the process of closing 84 stores all across America.

-Finish Line has announced that 150 stores will be shutting down over the next few years.

-Sears has shut down about 600 stores over the past year or so, but sales at the stores that remain open continue to fall precipitously.

Perhaps things look fine for the moment in New York City or Washington D.C. or San Francisco or wherever it is that these “reporters” write their articles.

But for ordinary Americans that operate in the real world, the pain of this new economic downturn is already exceedingly apparent.  Here is more from Bloomberg…

Dale Oxley doesn’t need to hear about rising odds of a U.S. recession to dread the future. For the West Virginia homebuilder, the downturn has already arrived.

“Everyone is going to have to tighten their belts,” said Oxley, the 48-year-old owner of a Charleston-area construction company. “The next couple of years are going to be difficult.”

Unfortunately for hard working Americans like Oxley, what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

We have entered a long downturn that is ultimately going to be even more painful than the last recession was.

And everything changes if Saudi Arabia and Turkey get trigger happy and decide to invade Syria.  If that happens, it could very well be the spark that sets off World War 3 and a full-blown meltdown of the global financial system.

Credit to Economic Collapse

Is Nibiru Coming and Bringing Messiah In Its Wake?

“Then was our mouth filled with laughter, and our tongue with singing.”
Psalms 126:2 (The Israel Bible™)

When Breaking Israel News first reported on an apocalyptic scenario involving a mysterious star or planet whose tail is expected to result in extensive damage to Earth’s land masses and death to millions, the story was met with plenty of skepticism.

Since then, however, the connection between the planet Nibiru – also known as Planet X – and End of Days has been discussed with increasingly seriousness by a wide range of Jewish scholars.

To date, the biggest name associated with this story is Rav Moshe Sternbuch, a very prominent rabbi in Jerusalem. Although he did not verify an apocalyptic scenario, he did tell his student, Rabbi Daniel Travis, that there are big changes coming to the world. He also explained that the appearance of a star at the End of Days is plainly spoken of in the Zohar, Judaism’s primary mystical text.

A translation of Rabbi Sternbuch’s Zohar reference is available on a new blog Tracking Nibiru, maintained by the End of Days blogger Tomer Devorah. Excerpts from the relevant passage read:


At that time Melech Hamoshiach (Messiah the King) will awaken and go out from Gan Eden (Garden of Eden), from the place called Kan Tzippor, and will be revealed in the Galil (Galilee)…. A star will arise from the East side, flaming with all colors, and seven other stars will go around this star and make a war with it on all sides three times a day for 70 days, and all the people of the world will see.

In a video filmed on February 14, Travis recounts his conversation with Sternbuch and translates the extended passage from the Zohar. Although sections of the passage are obscure, Travis said, “We should at least know that we’re not in simple times. We see many of the signs of Moshiach (Messiah) already happened.”

Continuing with his commentary on the passage, Travis teaches that the person who is alive in the time of the Messiah is both to be pitied and envied. “Hashem (God) is going to look at the world at the time when Moshiach is supposed to come and see that nobody is worthy. He’s going to have to bring tremendous yissurim (trials) onto the world in order that Moshiach should come.”

Travis continues translating the passage from the Zohar. “It’s going to be a test in emunah (faith in God). Happy is the person who is going to be in the time of Moshiach. Whoever holds onto emunah is going to see unbelievable things.”

Travis translates the words of Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai, 2nd century sage and author of the Zohar. “The task is to remain in emunah during this time. We’re going to see things happening that we don’t have any way of understanding. It’s going to be things that are beyond belief. It’s going to make the Exodus from Egypt look like nothing. Every day it’s going to be worse and we’re going to forget what it was like the day before. Whoever has emunah at this time will merit to see the end.”

Travis assures his audience that Jerusalem and the Land of Israel will be safe. He quotes a verse from Psalms 126:2. “‘Then was our mouth filled with laughter, and our tongue with singing.’ Why will we laugh? It’s going to be a totally different world. Definitely big things are brewing and we have to be ready for that.”

A day later, Bible Codes expert Rabbi Mattiyahu Glazerson released a video about Nibiru. The table used in both videos comes from the Book of Deuteronomy. In this video, Glazerson points out Bible Codes for “threat of a star” which crosses with the Hebrew word shaveet (comet). These Codes are found in close proximity, an indication of the strength of their relationship. Glazerson also found the word Nibiru.

Linking all this to today, Glazerson points out Messiah son of Joseph and Messiah son of David and 5776, the current Hebrew year. Glazerson points to the Code referring to the year after Shemita as one of the signs that Messiah is on the way. Putting the pieces together, Glazerson states, “Everything indicates that great things are going to happen.”

In a second video, Glazerson points out a reference to the month of March and the corresponding Hebrew month of Adar Bet and affirms that this all fits with the passage from the Zohar about the star. In leap years, which occur seven times every 19 years in the Hebrew calendar, an additional month of Adar, called Adar Alef is added. In a leap year, the “regular” month of Adar is referred to as Adar Bet.

A third rabbinic voice to speak openly about Nibiru is Rabbi Yuval Ovadia, a maker of spiritual films. In a radio interview on February 17, Ovadia shared his findings that Planet X was well-known and spoken about openly approximately 40 years ago. He claims to have many newspaper articles about the existence of Nibiru from that time.

“And then,” Ovadia claims, “it went down. NASA put it in a complete silence. They didn’t talk about it. And it was like just out there for [anyone believing] in mysticism and stuff like that, but as far as science, it’s completely vanished, as if it did not exist and even they started to, you know, spread around ‘It’s not true. It’s not there.’”

Nibiru has consistently been debunked by scientists and journalists, most recently in Joel Achenbach’s story in the Washington Post.

The date most frequently associated with Nibiru is March 26, 2016. In a matter of weeks, the entire world will know whether or not Nibiru exists and whether or not it represents a Messianic advancement.



Credit to Breaking Israel News
Read more at http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/61965/nibiru-coming-bringing-messiah-wake-jewish-world/#X0uiQD7lIp35ggi7.99

100 Foot Asteroid To Zoom Earth March 7 Paul Begley

Anyone Disagreeing with the Government Will Go To Prison Including the Media for Covering It

Prophetic words by President Bush

“Homegrown violent extremists can be motivated by any viewpoint on the full spectrum of hate—anti-government views, racism, bigotry, anarchy and other despicable beliefs,” 

John Carlin Assistant Attorney General in charge of anit-domestic terrorism (October 2015)

As one can clearly observe, Assistant Attorney General, John Carlin, is clearly stating that if one disagrees with the government, they are considered (under the Patriot Act) to be a Homegrown violent extremist.

Reuters while describing Carlin’s position, likens domestic, right-wing extremism with anti-governmental views, is guilty of providing “material support” for domestic terrorism.

Further, disagreeing with your government can cause you to “disappear” under the NDAA. Since 9/11, the feds have been engaged in a sequential and incrementally implemented scheme to do away with the First Amendment.

Technically, anyone in the Independent Media will be declared to be guilty of providing material support for domestic terrorists for interviewing “domestic terrorists” such as Ammon Bundy. Any media member interviewing someone who is promoting their cause against the government, will be arrested. I see no distinction between being declared to be a domestic terrorist and providing material support for a domestic terrorist. Both groups will be imprisoned or worse. 

Legal Double Talk Will Land Dave Hodges et al In Prison

Shawna Cox and Ammon Bundy appeared on The Common Sense Show and talked about their objectives in Burns, Oregon.

Dave Hodges, the host of The Common Sense Show, dated to interview Ammon and Shawna in separate interviews and is just as guilty of any crime committed by Ammon and Shawna because Hodges “provided material” by interviewing them.

According to a recent ACLU Report , “The Federal government’s  “material support” and conspiracy statutes allow the government to obtain convictions without having to show that any specific act has taken place, or is being planned, or even that a defendant intended to engage in terrorism.”  This is precisely what the Bundy’s and their colleagues are being charged with. In other words America, you are guilty of pre-crime because someone THINKS you were going to do something. No act of Congress is necessary because according to recent interpretations of Americanjurisprudence, proving material support for terrorism is a crime prohibited by the US Patriot Act in Article 18 of the United States Code, sections  and 2339B. Again, you may not have done anything wrong, but the government thinks you are going to. For example, if Dave Hodges interviews Ammon Bundy and allows Ammon to have his say, and Ammon goes on to commit an act that the government says is  terrorism, then Dave Hodges is guilty of providing material support. The government could say that Bundy was attempting to grow the number of confederates who are loyal to his cause and Dave Hodges assisted. Therefore, Dave Hodges is arrested as an accomplice in all of Bundy’s actions.

This Is Not a New Development

Below, I wrote the following article on October 17, 2015, from which excerpts are included. Based upon Carlin’s statements, I predicted that all working in the Independent media will be subject to arrest under new Department of Justice Guidelines for providing material support to “Domestic Terrorists”. And that is exactly what we are on the verge of seeing. What exactly is a domestic terrorist?

Some news outlets are reporting that this is a new development. It is not and as I reported on this in October of last year. Below are the excerpts from that article which clearly makes the point that the present Obama administration has planned to jail or murder (possible NDAA application) all who publicly disagree with their policies for quite sometime. The only thing that is new is that the federal government is actually arresting people for WHAT THEY MIGHT DO.

Excerpts From the October 17, 2015 Article

CNN Exposes a Very Dangerous Agenda

“Washington (CNN) Domestic terror groups pose a greater threat to America than ISIS or al Qaeda, a Justice Department official said Wednesday.

To help combat them, the department has created a new counsel that will coordinate the investigation and prosecution of anti-government and hate groups”. (Editor’s note: It is legal to be anti-government in one’s speech and this attitude does not imply the subsequent use of violence).

 From CNN, “Assistant Attorney General John Carlin, who oversees national security at the Justice Department, announced the new position — the Domestic Terrorism Counsel — following a number of violent attacks or plots against the U.S. that he said were motivated by “anti-government views, racism, bigotry and anarchy, and other despicable beliefs.”

Take note of the use of the strategy often referred to as incrementalism. Carlin vilifies groups that most Americans do not approve of (e.g.  the KKK, overt practices of racism, acts of violence etc.). However, Carlin slips into his rhetoric that anyone that characterizes any person harboring any expressed  anti-government views, as a domestic terrorist. This is a thinly veiled attempt to end all criticism of the government and government officials.

It is in the DNA of America to oppose governmental tyranny and that is precisely what we are witnessing in today’s Obama administration. It is our duty to protect and defend the Constitution. However, these “Anti-government” views and activities are being characterized as the actions of a domestic terrorist.

THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE CREATION OF AN “ENEMIES OF THE STATE” LIST. IT IS ANALOGOUS TO WHAT STEVE QUAYLE HAS LONG REFERRED TO AS THE “RED LIST/BLUE LIST”

From the NDAA, to the plethora of illegal and unconstitutional Executive Orders, the present (Obama) administration has made a mockery of the Constitution. However, in the words our occupied government (i.e. analogous to the French Vichy WW II Nazi collaborators), this administration wants to declare you to be a terrorist for the simple act of disagreeing with the government’s mandates. If traditional, Bible-believing Christians oppose gay marriage, they are members of a hate group cult. No matter how offensive these Christian world views may appear to some, it is the Constitutional right of these conservative groups to hold and express these beliefs. Yet, these beliefs are being criminalized and the holders of these beliefs are being set up for persecution. The Constitution is dead, long live the Constitution! The world has turned upside down.

Again, the CNN coverage of Carlin’s inflammatory comments continues, “Groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda, who are inspired by religious extremism, are designated by our federal government as terror organizations, which makes it illegal to support or assist them. But no such statute exist to prosecute white supremacists, the Ku Klux Klan or anti-government extremists, forcing federal law enforcement to find more concrete charges to lock them up”…

End of excerpts

“Domestic Terrorism overshadows Muslim extremism.”

John Carlin

One can see that any American, loyal to the Constitution, and expresses that view can and soon will be arrested for what they might do. This new interpretation of the Patriot Act has already taken place:

Cliven Bundy is accused of conspiracy to commit an offense against the US; assault on a federal officer with a deadly weapon; use and carry of a firearm in relation to a crime of violence; interference with commerce by extortion; obstruction of the administration of justice; and aiding and abetting.

Did Cliven Bundy actually commit an offense against the U.S? No

Did Cliven Bundy actually assault a federal officer with a deadly weapon? No, but the government says he intended to.

Did Cliven Bundy carry a weapon in relation to a crime of violence? No, but but this criminal administration said he intended to.

Did Cliven Bundy interfere with “commerce by extortion”?  No, it was Bundy that was having his commerce interfered with by the BLM.

Did Cliven Bundy interfere with federal authorities and their intent to steal his land and hand it off to Chinese Solar Energy front companies acting on behalf of the Chinese military? Yes, but this legal bootstrapping to a crime that has not yet happened, but the government says that it will.

Is Cliven Bundy guilty of aiding and abetting? Yes, under this new thought crime interpretation of the Patriot Act. He supported the Hammonds who were having their commerce and property rights interfered with by the BLM. But again, this is legal bootstrapping.

Let me remind everyone that the Hammonds were put in prison under domestic terrorism statutes because a controlled burn, conducted on their land with the permission of the federal government, that got out of control. Terrorism? Really? We are only witnessing the beginning of government terrorism against its citizens.

Subsequently, America, by standing up for your rights against governmental Fifth Amendment violations resulting in the loss of property value and even property ownership, one has become labeled as a terrorist. And now your independent media is also guilty of domestic terrorism for covering these events.

Conclusion

A blind man could see that the government is saying that if you disagree with them, that you are a terrorist. If the media, in any way, supports this new group of terrorists, they are guilty of providing material support for terrorists who intend to commit acts of terror. As Abbott and Costello once said “Who’s on first?”

Did you ever think you were going to live in an America such as this? Who will be the first talk show to go to prison for providing material support for “would-be” terrorists? Or worse yet, will they just “disappear” said talk show host?

My warnings were not taken seriously on October 17, 2015, maybe they will be now.

Credit to Common Sense Show

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False Flags To Be Used To Justify A Massive Ground Invasion Of Syria?

Throughout history, governments have staged attacks on their own people in order to place the blame on their enemies.  These kinds of attacks are known as “false flags”, and they are often used to justify military action.  As I will explain below, it appears that we may have just seen a “false flag” attack in Turkey.  The Turks needed justification for bombarding the Kurds in northern Syria, and right on cue there was a “terror attack” in Ankara.  During the weeks to come, will we see more “false flag” attacks that will be used to justify a full-blown ground invasion of Syria?

If you are not familiar with this concept, the following is how Wikipediadefines a “false flag”…

The contemporary term false flag describes covert operations that are designed to deceive in such a way that the operations appear as though they are being carried out by entities, groups, or nations other than those who actually planned and executed them.

The bomb attacks that killed 28 people in Ankara last week may have been an example of just such an attack.  It is entirely possible that the PKK or the Syrian Kurds could have been responsible for the bombing.  However, to me it seems at least as likely that the Turkish government set up this attack in order to blame the Kurds.

Turkey had already been mercilessly shelling the Kurds in northern Syria anyway, and after the bombing in Ankara there is now a lot more support inside Turkey for further military action against the Kurds.  The following comes from Reuters…

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu blamed a Syrian Kurdish militia fighter working with Kurdish militants inside Turkey for a suicide car bombing that killed 28 people in the capital Ankara, and he vowed retaliation in both Syria and Iraq.

A car laden with explosives detonated next to military buses as they waited at traffic lights near Turkey’s armed forces’ headquarters, parliament and government buildings in the administrative heart of Ankara late on Wednesday.

Davutoglu said the attack was clear evidence that the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that has been supported by the United States in the fight against Islamic State in northern Syria, was a terrorist organization and that Turkey, a NATO member, expected cooperation from its allies in combating the group.

Prior to that attack, it would have been difficult for Turkey to justify sending troops into northern Syria to fight the Kurds.  After all, the Syrian Kurds had not fired a single shot at Turkish forces even though Turkey relentlessly shelled Kurdish positions all last week.

But now the president of Turkey says that his nation has all the justification that it needs to do whatever it wants “to the terrorists”…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country has the right to launch operations in Syria against “terrorist organizations,” in remarks that could be viewed as a shot across the bow at Russian intervention.

“To fight the threats which it faces, Turkey has the right to launch any kind of operation, in Syria and wherever else the terrorist organizations are located,” Erdogan said in a speech on Saturday, according to a Dogan news agency report cited by AFP.

Isn’t that convenient?

Everyone knew that Turkey wanted to do something to stop the advance of the Kurds in northern Syria, and now this bombing in Ankara gives them the perfect excuse to take dramatic military action.

But a bombing blamed on the Kurds is not going to give Turkey, Saudi Arabia and their allies justification to launch a full-blown ground invasion of the entire country.  In order for that to happen, more false flags will probably be necessary – especially if they want the United States to be involved.

Right now, the American people have very little interest in a way in Syria.  But if there was some sort of major terror attack in this country that could be blamed on ISIS, that would do much to shift public opinion.

Of course since the Russians, the Iranians and Hezbollah are all already inside Syria helping the Assad regime fight the radical Sunni militants that are being backed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, a full-blown ground invasion could very easily be the spark that begins World War 3.  This would be true even if the United States did not participate in the ground invasion.  The following comes from USA Today…

A war between Russia and Turkey would put the United States, and Europe, in an uncomfortable position. Since Turkey remains a NATO ally (though a shakier one than in the past), war between Turkey and Russia could easily suck us in. And if Turkey and Russia went to war while NATO stayed on the sidelines, the NATO alliance would be weakened. (Yes, the NATO treaty technically doesn’t obligate us to support Turkey in a war that Turkey starts, but a reliance on such niceties wouldn’t make NATO look stronger).

There had been hope that a cease-fire would bring some stability to the situation in Syria, but a series of suicide bombings by ISIS on Sunday has really put a damper on that…

The Islamic State asserted responsibility for bombings on Sunday that killed dozens of people in two Syrian government strongholds, casting a shadow over intensified diplomatic efforts to broker a cease-fire to the civil war.

At least three explosions struck a suburb south of the capital, Damascus, leaving 50 people dead near the Sayyida Zeinab shrine that is revered by Shiite Muslims, according to Syrian state television. The area is a high-profile target for extremist Sunni groups such as the Islamic State, which rejects Shiites as apostates.

Bombings earlier in the day also targeted the city of Homs, killing at least 34 people, according to the area’s governor, Talal al-Barazi.

If the cease-fire had been successful, that would have lessened the urgency that Saudi Arabia and Turkey feel to get directly involved in the conflict.

But now that the cease-fire looks like it is not going to hold, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to feel more pressure to move in and rescue the radical Sunni militants that they have been backing for the last five years.

In order to do that, they are probably going to need some sort of “big event” which will give them justification in the eyes of the world to conduct a massive ground invasion of Syria.

So will that “big event” be some sort of a false flag attack?

We will just have to wait and see what happens…

Credit to End of the American Dream

A "Nervous" NATO Fears Turkey, Russia May Soon Go To War

If you want our take - and let’s face it, you must because that’s why you’re here - we wouldn’t put too much faith in today’s announced Syrian “ceasefire” agreement.

Although the deal calls for the cessation of hostilities as of Saturday at midnight, you shouldn’t expect the Russians and the Iranians to halt their advance on Aleppo and likewise, you shouldn’t expect Turkey to stop shelling the Azaz corridor in a largely transparent effort to keep the supply lines to the rebels open.

The stakes are simply too high now. As we’ve explained exhaustively, the fall of Aleppo to Hezbollah and the Russians would for all intents and purposes be the end of the rebellion. Assad would once again control the bulk of the country’s urban backbone in the west and that would mean his rule would be effectively restored.

Additionally, don’t expect Hezbollah to simply pack up and head back to Lebanon once the rebels are defeated. Iran will most likely keep Hassan Nasrallah’s army in place to provide security as well as members of the various Shiite militias the Quds called over from Iraq. Similarly, the Russians won’t be going anywhere either. Vladimir Putin now has an air base and a naval base in Syria and The Kremlin will want to protect those installations vociferously during what is likely to be a turbulent couple of years following the demise of the rebel cause.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia know all of this and they’re fuming mad. The last thing Saudi Arabia wants is for Tehran to preserve the Shiite crescent and the supply line to Lebanon and Turkey is now in a bitter feud with the Russians following Erdogan’s ill-fated move to down an Su-24 near the border on November 24.

Both Riyadh and Ankara have indicated that they would participate in ground operations in Syria and most recently, the Turks have been busy shelling the Syrian Kurds to keep what’s left of the supply lines to the rebels open and prevent the Russian-backed YPG from consolidating territorial gains and uniting a Kurdish proto-state on Turkey’s border.

All of the above has NATO rattled, but the thing that worries the alliance the most is the possibility that Turkey will end up in an armed, direct confrontation with Russia. Were Russia to attack Turkey, NATO would be obligated to defend Ankara but that defense would mean going to war with Moscow and, most likely, with Iran. 

Below, find some insightful - if slightly biased - commentary from Der Spiegel on NATO’s “Article 5” problem.

*  *  *

From “Putin Vs. Erdogan: NATO Concerned Over Possible Russia-Turkey Hostiities” as published in Der Spiegel

It was a year deep in the Cold War, a time when the world was closer to nuclear war than ever. There were myriad provocations, red lines were violated, airspace was infringed upon and a plane was shot down.

The situation was such that an accidentally fired missile or a submarine captain losing his cool would have been enough to trigger World War III. It was 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis -- an incident the current Russian prime minister finds himself reminded of today. At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, Dimitri Medvedev invoked the danger of a new Cold War. "Sometimes I think, are we in 2016 or 1962?"

Officials in Berlin have likewise been struck recently by a strange sense of déjà vu.

Syria is the Cuba of 2016 and the risk of an international confrontation there is growing by the day.

Officials in Angela Merkel's Chancellery in Berlin are concerned about how close NATO has already come to a conflict with Russia. Indeed, Syria could become a vital test case for the military alliance. But the situation is complex: In order to thwart Putin, NATO must make it clear that it stands behind its member states in their moment of need. Yet NATO also wants to avoid a military conflict with Russia at all costs.

Officials at NATO headquarters in Brussels view the situation between Ankara and Moscow as being extremely volatile. "The armed forces of the two states are both active in fierce fighting on the Turkish-Syrian border, in some cases just a few kilometers from each other," one NATO official says.

Since Russia became a party to the war in Syria at the end of September, there has been a significant risk of open confrontation between Moscow and Ankara. Russia has thrown its support behind the troops loyal to Syria's unscrupulous dictator Bashar Assad while Turkey is supporting the rebels who would like to topple his autocracy.

The conflict intensified at the end of November when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane and now Putin has forged an alliance with the Syrian Kurds, Erdogan's archenemies. The Turkish president holds the Syrian Kurds responsible for the attack on Wednesday in the Turkish capital, which saw an explosion in central Ankara kill 28 and wound 61. Syrian Kurds have denied responsibility, but the bombing has ratcheted up tensions between Ankara and Moscow even further.

Turkey too has done its part in recent weeks to ratchet up the escalation. Turkish troops are now firing artillery across the border at Kurds in Syria and Ankara has also been thinking out loud about possibly sending ground troops into Syria to take on the Kurds.

That would be a nightmare for the West: Direct fighting between the Kurds and the Turks could mean that Russian troops would be soon to follow. What, though, would happen were a NATO member state to fire at Russian soldiers? Officials in the Chancellery hope that the alliance wouldn't be directly called on to get involved, as long as the fighting was limited to Syrian territory.

In an effort to prevent further escalation, NATO has made it exceedingly clear to the Turkish government that it cannot count on alliance support should the conflict with Russia head up as a result of a Turkish attack. "NATO cannot allow itself to be pulled into a military escalation with Russia as a result of the recent tensions between Russia and Turkey," says Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn.

Should Turkey be responsible for escalation, say officials in both Berlin and Brussels, Ankara would not be able to invoke the NATO treaty. Article 4 of the alliance's founding treaty grants member states the right to demand consultations "whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." Turkey has already invoked this article once in the Syrian conflict. The result was the stationing of German Patriot missiles on the Syrian border in eastern Turkey.

The decisive article, however, is Article 5, which guarantees that an "armed attack against one or more of (the alliance members) in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." But Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Asselborn notes that "the guarantee is only valid when a member state is clearly attacked."

"We are not going to pay the price for a war started by the Turks," says a German diplomat. Because decisions taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's primary decision-making body, must always be unanimous, it is enough for a single country to exercise its veto rights, the official says. But, the official adds, it won't get that far: there is widespread agreement with the US and most other allies that Turkey would get the cold shoulder in such a case.

Much more in the full article

Yes, but as Erdogan advisor Seref Malkoc made clear over the weekend, Ankara is getting fed up with the "cold shoulder" and if there's anything the Turks aren't scared to do, it's act unilaterally. 

While NATO might indeed scold Ankara and seek to stay out of an open conflict in the initial stages, it's unlikely that the alliance would stand idly by should Russia and Turkey actually go to war.

As a reminder, Turkey has already gotten two strikes. Erodgan downed a Russian drone and then shot down a Russian warplane. Turkey is now shelling areas where Russian and Iranian forces are very likely to be operating, if not now, then within a couple of weeks. 

We can promise you that when it comes to shooting at Russian assets, be they planes, drones, or soldiers, Turkey will not get a strike three.

Credit to Zero Hedge

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