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A Major Bank Just Made Global Financial "Meltdown" Its Base Case: "The Worst The World Has Ever Seen"

When it comes to the epic bubble in China's economy, it really boils down to one - or rather two - things: a vast debt build up (by now everybody should be familiar with McKinsey's chart showing China's consolidated debt buildup) leading to a just as vast build up of excess capacity, also known as capital stock accumulation. And/or vice versa.

It is how China resolves this pernicious, and self-reinforcing feedback loop, that is a far greater threat to the global economy than even what happens to China's bad debt (China NPLs are currently realistically at a 10-20% level of total financial assets) or whether China successfully devalues its currency without experiencing runaway capital flight and a currency crisis.

One bank that is now less than optimistic that China can escape a total economic meltdown is the Daiwa Institute of Research, a think tank owned by Daiwa Securities Group, the second largest brokerage in Japan after Nomura. 

Actually, scratch that: Daiwa is downright apocalyptic.

In a report released on Friday titled "What Will Happen if China's Economic Bubble Bursts", Daiwa - among other things - looks at this pernicious relationship between debt (and thus "growth") and China's capital stock.  This is what it says:

The sense of surplus in China’s supply capacity has been indicated previously. This produces the risk of a large-scale capital stock adjustment occurring in the future. 

Chart 6 shows long-term change in China’s capital coefficient (= real capital stock / real GDP). This chart indicates that China’s policies for handling the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 led to the carrying out of large-scale capital investment, and we see that in recent years, the capital coefficient has been on the rise. Recently, the coefficient has moved further upwards on the chart, diverging markedly from the trend of the past twenty years. It appears that the sense of overcapacity is increasing. 

Using the rate of divergence from past trends in the capital coefficient, we can calculate the amount of surplus in real capital stock. This shows us that as of the year 2013, China held a surplus of 19.4 trillion yuan in capital stock (about 12% of real capital stock). 

Since China is a socialist market economy, they could delay having to deal directly with the problem of capital stock surplus for 1-2 years through fiscal and financial policy. However, there is serious risk of a large-scale capital stock adjustment occurring in the mid to long-term (around 3-5 years). 

Daiwa then attempts to calculate what the magnitude of the collapse of China's economic bubble would be. Its conclusions:

Even in an optimum scenario China’s economic growth rate would fall to around zero

We take a quantitative look at the potential magnitude of the collapse of China’s economic bubble to ensure that we can get a good grasp of the future risk scenario. If a surplus capital stock adjustment were to actually occur, what is the risk for China and how far would its economy fall?

Chart 7 shows a factor analysis of China’s potential growth rate. The data here suggests that (1) China’s economy has gradually matured in recent years, and this has slowed progress in technological advancement, (2) Despite this fact, it has continued to depend on the accumulation of capital mainly from public spending to maintain a high economic growth rate, and (3) As a result, this has done more harm than good to technological advancement. Between the years 2012-15 China’s economy declined, yet still was able to maintain a high growth rate of over 7%. However, 5%pt of the growth rate was due to the increase in capital stock. Labor input and total factor productivity contributed only 2%pt.

The major decline in the rate of contribution from total factor productivity is especially noteworthy, as it had maintained an annualized rate of 5% for thirty years straight since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy and on through the era of rapid globalization.

According to a DIR simulation, if a capital stock adjustment were to occur under such circumstances, China’s potential growth rate would fall to around 4% at best. This adjustment process is shown in the bottom left Chart 7. As far as can be determined from the capital stock circulation diagram, capital spending at the level seen in 2014 should not have been allowable without an expected growth rate of over 10%. Hence if adjustment progresses to the point where the potential growth rate is only 4%, the situation for capital spending will continue to be harsh. If the adjustment process lasts from the year 2016 to 2020, capital spending will likely continue in negative numbers on a y/y basis. If this scenario becomes a reality, the real economic growth rate will hover at around zero as is shown in the  lower right portion of Chart 7.

All of this is well-known by most (or at least those who are willing to accept reality at face value instead of goalseeking it away with Keynesian theories that serve to merely perpetuate fallacious groupthink). It does, however, underscore the severity of China's economic situation and the follow-through linkages to the rest of the world. 

But where the Daiwa stands out from every other report we have read on this topic, and where it truly goes where no other research has dared to go before, is quantifying the probability of China's worst case scenario. Here is what it says:

Meltdown scenario: World economy sent into a tailspin

We have already stressed that the scenario discussed in the previous section is the optimum or bestcase scenario. What is just as likely or possibly more likely to occur is the following. If the expected growth rate declines and the progress of the capital stock adjustment causes the bad debt problem to become even more serious, the economy could spiral out of control, lapsing further into a meltdown situation. 

The stunning punchline: 

"Of all the possible risk scenarios the meltdown scenario is, realistically speaking, the most likely to occur. It is actually a more realistic outcome than the capital stock adjustment scenario.  The point at which the capital stock adjustment is expected to hit bottom is at a much lower point than in the previously discussed capital stock adjustment scenario (see Chart 8). As shown in the bottom right portion of this chart, the actual economic growth rate will continue to register considerably negative performance. If China’s economy, the second largest in the world, twice the size of Japan’s, were to lapse into a meltdown situation such as this one, the effect would more than likely send the world economy into a tailspin. Its impact could be the worst the world has ever seen."

Translated: Daiwa just made a Chinese "meltdown" and global economic "tailspin" its "realistically speaking, the most likely", base case scenario. 

And here we were thinking our calls (since 2011) that China's debt and excess capacity bubble would negatively impact global growth, are audacious. 

The question, now that Daiwa has broken the seal on Chinese and global doomsday scenarios, is whether and how soon other banks will follow in Daiwa's path, and predict an armageddon scenario which sooner or later, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy even without the help of China's increasingly clueless micromanagers.

Credit to Zero Hedge

Is It Just A Coincidence That Two Amazing Signs Just Appeared On The 14th Anniversary Of 9/11?

Is it just me, or does our world seem to be getting stranger with each passing day?  As an attorney, I was trained to be level-headed and skeptical, and in my writing I typically stick to facts that I can prove.  But lately, a whole lot of things have been happening that I don’t have any rational explanation for.  Just look at what happened on Thursday.  On the eve of the 14th anniversary of 9/11, a double rainbow appeared over the site where the World Trade Center towers once stood.  We’ll discuss possible meanings of that sign in a moment.  On Friday, a massive bolt of lightning caused a crane to collapse at the Grand Mosque in Mecca in Saudi Arabia.  At least 107 people were killed and at least 238 others were injured.  It turns out that this crane was owned by “the Saudi Binladin Group”.  If that is a coincidence, it is an awfully bizarre one.

The Grand Mosque surrounds the holiest site in all of Islam.  So the fact that photos are circulating all over social media that show “the polished tiled floor of the mosque covered in rubble, bodies and pools of blood, and people fleeing the area bleeding and covered in soot” is a very, very big deal.

Not only did this happen on the anniversary of 9/11, it also took place just before the Hajj is to begin…

The Grand Mosque, or Sacred Mosque, surrounds the Kaaba – the most sacred site in Islam. The cuboid structure made of granite located in the mosque’s center is often called the House of Allah.

The Kaaba is the place of the Hajj – the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, which is one of the five Pillars of Islam. It is mandatory of all Muslims physically and financially capable to carry out the journey at least once in a lifetime. The period of Hajj in Mecca is considered to be one of the largest gatherings of people in the world.

And as I mentioned above, the crane that collapsed just happened to belong to “the Saudi Binladin Group”…

The project to expand the mosque was launched in 2011 by late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. Earlier in 2015, King Salman bin Abdulaziz added five construction projects as part of the mosque’s expansion aiming to accommodate more than 1.6 million worshippers.

The projects cover 1.47 million square meters and include the construction of 78 new gates at ground level, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. The project and is being carried out by the Saudi Binladin Group at an estimated cost of US$26.6 billion, according to local press.

I don’t know what all of this means.

I am just throwing it out there.

Another very unusual sign was the very rare double rainbow that suddenly appeared in New York City on the eve of the anniversary of 9/11…

I don’t know what this sign means either.

There are some that have suggested that it was God’s way of remembering the victims of 9/11 and their families.

Others have suggested that it is a sign of impending judgment.  In the Bible, the rainbow was a sign that God used for his covenant with Noah, and in the book of Revelation we see a rainbow around the throne of God.

Today, we have taken this symbol which belongs to God and we have desecrated it…

So what message is this double rainbow in New York City sending to us?

I’ll let people debate that in the comments section following this article.

Before I bring this piece to an end, I also want to remind everyone that there are tremendous unanswered questions about what actually happened on September 11th, 2001.  As an attorney, I was trained to follow the evidence, and in this case the evidence points to some extremely disturbing conclusions.  The following is an extended excerpt from a previous article that I published…

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Even though Americans have been hearing about 9/11 endlessly for the past 12 years, nearly half of them still don’t know that a third building fell on that day.  A 47-story building named “Building 7″ collapsed perfectly into its own footprint at freefall speed, but no plane ever hit it.

So why did it fall?

The following is the official ReThink911 video about Building 7…

And of course the collapse of the other two World Trade Center towers would have been impossible as well without the help of controlled demolition.

But for many Americans, the implications of accepting that reality would just be too painful to accept.  It would mean that someone wired those buildings for controlled demolition ahead of time, and for many very patriotic Americans such a notion is absolutely unthinkable.

However, we owe it to future generations of Americans to put our emotions aside and to search out the truth.  Whoever was responsible for the events of 9/11 needs to be brought to justice, no matter who they might be.

And the families of those that were killed on that day deserve to know exactly what happened and why it happened.  The following is an excerpt from a great editorial by Dennis Maley in the Bradenton Times…

For too long, government officials have been able to successfully leverage the emotional components of the tragedy to deflect questions they painted as either disrespectful to the victims and their families or crackpot conspiracies. But with over 2,000 architects and engineers having signed the 9/11 truth petition, most of whom have offered credible and detailed reasons why their expertise has left them at odds with root elements of the official version of events, there remain too many unanswered questions for us to continue to ignore those raising them.

Perhaps the most noted event of that day, in terms of skepticism, is the implausible “collapse” of building seven, the third tower to fall, which reached free-fall speeds and fell in its own footprint in the way that a controlled demolition does – despite the fact that it was not hit by a plane. Building seven’s improbable collapse was not explained by the 9/11 Commission and has been routinely described by demolition experts as something which could have only occurred through a well-planned, coordinated demolition, aided by pre-placed explosives.

The two main towers also fell at near free-fall speeds, with concrete floors being pulverized to dust almost immediately (before the required force would be present) while the necessary deceleration that would be needed to generate the force to continuously penetrate each floor below was obviously absent. Quite simply, a building of that size and structural integrity would not seem capable of falling at such speed, while simultaneously expelling such tremendous energy in obliterating each floor – which was nearly 4-ft. thick and topped with 4 inches of poured concrete above and lined with interlocking steel trusses beneath.

The documented phenomenon of extreme-high temperatures at the twin tower sites, which inexplicably reached levels capable of melting iron and structural steel when a normal open air fire is not capable of reaching such ranges, also warrants a closer look, as does eyewitness accounts of “molten metal.” Iron-laden spheres in residual dust at the site that suggest temperatures had to reach more than 2,700 degrees fahrenheit (the melting point of iron and structural steel) is also suspect. The use of thermite would be one possible explanation, though the pyrotechnic compound was not tested for at the site, a standard protocol when investigating such an explosion.

Why are so many Americans still so resistant to asking such hard questions?

Shouldn’t we allow the evidence to lead us to the truth instead of allowing the government to define what the truth is for us?

Posted below is video from investigative reporter Ben Swann asking some more questions about the collapse of Building 7…

Why aren’t there more reporters out there like Ben Swann?

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A lot of you out there think that you know exactly what happened on that day and you bought the maintream media’s “official story” hook, line and sinker.

Well, today I think that it is a great time to stop and examine the evidence.  There is an organization of more than 2,000 architects and engineers that claim that the government’s version of what happened on 9/11/2001 is absolutely impossible.  You can learn more about what they have collectively discovered right here.

Some people try to tell us that questioning the official version of events on 9/11 makes us “conspiracy theorists”, but the truth is that the real “conspiracy theory” is the nonsense that our government has been trying to sell us all this time.

Much of what the government says about that day is scientifically impossible.

Someday I hope the truth about what actually happened comes out and is exposed for all to see.

And once the American people discover how badly they have been duped, there is going to be hell to pay.

Credit to End of the American Dream