North Korea threatens to turn Seoul into a 'sea of flames'

North Korea threatened "sacred war" against the South, just days after it agreed with the US to suspend major parts of its nuclear programme and allow back international nuclear inspectors.

North Korean television KRT showed what appeared to be artillery pointing towards South Korea's Paekryong Island, as well as live-firing exercises.

Deputy commander Li Gum-chol threatened: "We will turn Seoul into a sea of flames by our strong and cruel artillery firepower, which cannot be compared to our artillery shelling on Yeonpyeong Island. We are training hard, concentrating on revenge to shock [South Korea president] Lee Myung-bak's traitorous group and the military warmongers in South Korea."

North Korean artillery shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010, killing four people including two civilians.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of slogan-chanting North Koreans rallied in Pyongyang vowing to "wipe out" South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's "traitors" whom they accused of defaming their new leader, Kim Jong-un, and of staging inflammatory war games with the United States.

The Telegraph

Strange noises 2012 - Earth groaning in Germany, Switzerland....

Because the creature itself also shall be delivered from the bondage of corruption into the glorious liberty of the children of God. For we know that the whole creation groaneth and travaileth in pain together until now. And not only [they], but ourselves also, which have the firstfruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting for the adoption, [to wit], the redemption of our body. Romans 8:21- 23

'Putin to challenge world order that Washington wants'

15 Potentially Massive Threats To The U.S. Economy Over The Next 12 Months

We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and the potential for an event that could cause "sudden change" to the U.S. economy is greater than ever.  There are dozens of potentially massive threats that could easily push the U.S. economy over the edge during the next 12 months.  A war in the Middle East, a financial collapse in Europe, a major derivatives crisis or a horrific natural disaster could all change our economic situation very rapidly.  Most of the time I write about the long-term economic trends that are slowly but surely ripping the U.S. economy to pieces, but the truth is that just a single really bad "black swan event" over the next 12 months could accelerate our economic problems dramatically.  If oil was cut off from the Middle East or a really bad natural disaster suddenly destroyed a major U.S. city, the U.S. economy would be thrown into a state of chaos.  Considering how bad the U.S. economy is currently performing, it would be easy to see how a major "shock to the system" could push us into the "next Great Depression" very easily.  Let us hope that none of these things actually happen over the next 12 months, but let us also understand that we live in a world that has become extremely chaotic and extremely unstable.

In the list below, you will find some "sudden change" events that are somewhat likely and some that are quite unlikely.  I have tried to include a broad range of potential "black swan events", but there are certainly dozens more massive threats that could potentially be listed.

The following are 15 potentially massive threats to the U.S. economy over the next 12 months....

#1 War With Syria - U.S. Senator John McCain is now publicly calling for U.S. airstrikes against Syria.  A military conflict with Syria becomes more likely with each passing day.

#2 War With Iran - A war in the Middle East involving Iran could literally erupt at any time.  The following is from a Reuters news report that was issuedon Monday....

President Barack Obama appealed to Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to give sanctions time to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the Israeli prime minister offered no sign of backing away from possible military action, saying his country must be the "master of its fate."

#3 A Disorderly Greek Debt Default - Many reporters in Europe seem to think that this is becoming increasingly likely.  So what would a disorderly Greek debt default mean for the global financial system?  A leaked report that was authored by the Institute of International Finance says that a disorderlyGreek debt default would have some very serious consequences.  You can read the full text of that leaked report right here.

#4 An Economic Collapse In Spain - Spain has one of the largest economies in Europe and it is rapidly becoming a basket case.  As I have written about previously, the unemployment rate in Spain has hit 19.9 percent, and the unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 is up to 49.9 percent.  Unfortunately, the situation in Spain continues to deteriorate.  The following is from a recent article by Marc Chandler....

However, the devolution in Spain is particularly troubling. The new fiscal compact had just been signed last week, which includes somewhat more rigorous fiscal rule and enforcement, when Spain's PM Rajoy revealed that this year's deficit would come in around 5.8 percent of GDP rather the 4.4 percent target. This of course follows last year's 8.5 percent overshoot of the 6 percent target.

The problem that for Spain is that the 4.4 percent target was based on forecasts for more than 2 percent growth this year. However, in late February, the EU cuts its forecast to a 1 percent contraction. This still seems optimistic. The IMF forecasts a 1.7 percent contraction, which the Spanish government now accepts.

#5 The Price Of Gasoline - The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has risen for 27 days in a row and is now up to $3.77.  Virtually all forms of economic activity are affected by the price of gasoline, and if the price of gas keeps going up it is eventually going to have dramatic consequences for the U.S. economy.

#6 The Student Loan Debt Bubble - Just like we saw with the housing bubble, the student loan debt bubble just continues to grow and grow and grow.  At some point the nearly 1 trillion dollar bubble is going to burst.  What effect will it have on our financial system when that finally happens?

#7 State And Local Government Debt Crisis - It is being reported that California is running out of cash again and there are cities all over the country that are on the verge of bankruptcy.  Could we see a significant municipal bond crisis in the next 12 months?

#8 The Collapse Of A Major U.S. Bank - A number of top U.S. banks are looking increasingly shaky.  In a recent article, David Trainer explained why he has such serious concerns about Bank of America right now....

In my opinion, there are four actions taken by financial services that signal the company is headed to serious trouble.

1. Management shake-up and major layoffs - lots of layoffs over the past year

2. Exploiting accounting rules to boost earnings - SFAS 159

3. Drawing down reserves to boost earnings: to the tune of $13.3 billion in 2011 and 2012

4. Bilking customers with new fees: tried it before and trying it again

Bank of America has taken all four steps.

#9 A Derivatives Crisis - The International Swaps and Derivatives Association recently ruled that the Greek debt deal will not trigger payouts on credit default swaps.  This is seriously shaking confidence in the global market for derivatives.  But the global financial system simply cannot afford a major derivatives crisis.

Estimates of the notional value of the worldwide derivatives market range from $600 trillion all the way up to $1.5 quadrillion.  The notional value of all derivatives held by Bank of America is approximately $75 trillion.  JPMorgan Chase is holding derivatives with a notional value of approximately $79 trillion.

When the derivatives bubble finally bursts it is going to be a financial horror show unlike anything we have ever seen.

#10 The Fall Of The Japanese Economy - The Japanese economy shrankat a 2.3 percent rate during the fourth quarter of 2011.  Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of over 200 percent and a major debt crisis involving Japan could erupt at any time.

#11 A "Solar Megastorm" - Scientists tell us that there is a "1 in 8 chance" that a "solar megastorm" will hit the earth by 2014.  A recent Daily Mail article detailed what some of the consequences of such an event would be....

'We live in a cyber cocoon enveloping the Earth. Imagine what the consequences might be,' Daniel Baker, of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics told National Geographic when asked about a potential 'megastorm'.

'Every time you purchase a gallon of gas with your credit card, that's a satellite transaction.

'Imagine large cities without power for a week, a month, or a year. The losses could be $1 to $2 trillion, and the effects could be felt for years.

#12 A Major West Coast Earthquake Or Volcanic Eruption - On Monday, there was a 4.0 earthquake in San Francisco and a 6.1 earthquake in Argentina.  Is the "Ring of Fire" waking up again?

#13 Tornado Damage To Major U.S. Cities - Last year, the U.S. experienced one of the worst tornado seasons of all time.  This year, we have already seen the worst tornado outbreak ever recorded in the United States in the month of March.  A couple of towns in Indiana were completely wiped out by that outbreak.  So what should we expect when we get to the heart of tornado season this year?

#14 Severe Drought In The United States - Last summer was one of the driest summers on record in the United States, and in many areas there is simply not enough water available for farmers this year.  Some are even projecting that we could see "dust bowl conditions" return to some areas of the country eventually.

#15 An Asteroid Strike In 2013 - Although scientists tell us that the probability is extremely low, the truth is that there is a slight chance that a sizeable asteroid could hit the earth in February 2013.  The asteroid is estimated to be between 60 and 100 meters wide, and it is projected to pass by our planet "at a distance of under 27,000 km".  If it did hit us (and scientists say that the odds of that happening are very low) it would potentially be as serious an event as the Tunguska Event in Siberia in 1908.  Mac Slavo of shtfplan.com recently described how awesome the Tunguska Event really was....

On June 30, 1908 an incoming meteor exploded approximately 5 miles above Siberia. The force of the air burst explosion, estimated at between 15 and 30 megatons, or about 1000 times bigger than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, was so powerful that it annihilated everything in an 830 square mile area, and reports suggest that that explosion was heard up to 1000 miles away. Because of the remoteness of the impact zone, the Tunguska Event over Siberia had very little effect on the human population in the region, but the destruction of some 80 million trees in the area shows just how powerful a blast was created.

Of course there are so many other "sudden change" events that could potentially happen - a terror event in a major U.S. city, a deadly pandemic, an EMP attack, cyberterrorism or a major political scandal could all possibly cause a stock market crash and an economic collapse in the United States.

In the world that we are living in today, you just never know what is going to happen.

So what are all of you concerned about over the next 12 months?

Do you see the potential for some "black swan events" to happen?

Economic Collapse

War on terror is war on liberty

McCain calls for air strikes against Syria

Sen. John McCain on Monday became the first U.S. lawmaker to call for air strikes against the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, putting the influential Arizona Republican in front of the Obama administration in calling for American troop involvement in the year-long struggle between the dictator and Syrian citizens.

"The time has come for a new policy," McCain said in a Senate floor speech Monday afternoon in which he compared Syrian violence to war crimes in the Balkans and Russia's annihilation of Grozny in Chechnya.


"Providing military assistance to the Free Syrian Army and other opposition groups is necessary, but at this late hour, that alone will not be sufficient to stop the slaughter and save innocent lives. The only realistic way to do so is with foreign air power," he said.

"The United States should lead an international effort to protect key population centers in Syria, especially in the north, through air strikes on Assad's forces," McCain said. "To be clear: This will require the United States to suppress enemy air defenses in at least part of the country."

McCain, the most senior Republican on the Armed Services Committee, recently traveled to the region but heretofore had called only for arming the opposition, a position the administration has been reluctant to embrace as much is still not known about the composition of the rebel groups, saying terrorists could possibly be among them.

But McCain said air strikes would enable allies "to establish and defend safe havens in Syria" that would "serve as platforms" for the delivery of aid and intelligence, and would give the allies a leg up on deciding which factions to back on the ground.

With an estimated 7,500 lives lost so far in the brutal government crackdown, the U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford issued a Facebook post Monday on the U.S.' Damascus Embassy page saying the U.S. "is trying as hard as it can to show the world it knows what is occurring in Syria."

Ford, who left the country late last year over "security fears," said allies operating under the Friends of Syria banner are calling for a strong U.N. Security Council Resolution that would require the Assad regime to uphold commitments made last year to the Arab League to end violence against civilians, withdraw from cities and residential areas, allow access for monitors and journalists and release political prisoners.

So far, the Arab League and the United Nations have been unable to get Assad to step down.

Ford said the U.S. will provide millions in humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees in neighboring nations and Syrians inside of Syria -- if the aid can get into the country.

McCain said Monday the Friends of Syria contact group has been "a good step in principle" but has produced "mostly rhetoric but precious little action."

"Unfortunately, with each passing day, the international response to Assad's atrocities is being overtaken by events on the ground in Syria," McCain said.

"Assad needs to know that he will not win. ... Foreign military intervention is now the necessary factor to reinforce this," he said.

McCain, a Vietnam prisoner of war, was also out in front pushing for aid to rebel forces who gradually seized control of parts of Libya before dictator Muammar Qaddafi and his regime were toppled. The senator traveled to the war-torn African nation and called for not only arming the opposition, but also bringing in U.S. firepower.

McCain said that Syria's serving as "the main forward operating base of the Iranian regime;" its threat to Israel through the support of Palestinian terrorist groups and "its large stockpiles of chemical weapons and materials" makes it even more strategic than Libya.

"Put simply, the United States has a clear national security interest in stopping the violence in Syria and forcing Assad to leave power. In this way, Syria is very different than Libya: The stakes are far higher, both for America and some of our closest allies," he said.

It is unclear if McCain's remarks will receive support in a war-weary nation, as the U.S. has withdrawn forces from Iraq and is on track to draw down forces from Afghanistan over the next two years. Speaking about Iran on Sunday, President Obama said there has been too much "loose talk of war."

But one key McCain ally, Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., said Monday that more needs to be done in Syria.

"We must do more to help them overthrow Bashar's evil dictatorship and end his campaign of slaughter. We can no longer stand passively by. We must do more to speed the day when the people of Syria and the people of Iran will again be free," said Lieberman, speaking at the American-Israeli Political Action Committee conference.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/05/mccain-calls-for-air-strikes-against-syrias-assad/#ixzz1oLG74kuu

Overnight deposits at European Central Bank hit another record

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Banks left a record euro820.8 billion ($1.08 trillion) on deposit overnight at the European Central Bank on Friday.

The figures released Monday exceeded the record euro776.9 billion deposited Thursday and reflects the flood of cash released into the European banking system by the central bank.

The ECB made just over euro1 trillion in cheap, three-year loans to banks in two offerings Dec. 21 and Feb. 29, leaving the system flush with ready money.

Banks can park excess cash temporarily at the central bank, earning a low 0.25 percent interest.

Yahoo News

Churches adopt new Ten Commandments

And the Spirit and the bride say, Come. And let him that heareth say, Come. And let him that is athirst come. And whosoever will, let him take the water of life freely. For I testify unto every man that heareth the words of the prophecy of this book, If any man shall add unto these things, God shall add unto him the plagues that are written in this book: And if any man shall take away from the words of the book of this prophecy, God shall take away his part out of the book of life, and out of the holy city, and [from] the things which are written in this book.

Revelation 22:17-19


The religious rules, which Christians believe were etched onto tablets by God and given to Moses, have been modified to use up-to-date language and principles.

Inspired by last year’s riots, the new vows include “manage your anger”, “know God” and “catch your breath” and are understood to be used in more than 600 churches in Britain.

The original “thou shalt not steal” has become “prosper with a clear conscience”, and the lengthy “thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain” becomes “take God seriously”.

The commandments, designed by popular evangelical preacher J John, have been praised by religious leaders for bringing practical advice to modern congregations.

Using short, simple language interspersed with slang, the new rules have now been released on a DVD called “just10 for churches”, aimed at providing guidance.

The tenth commandment, for example, has altered the Biblical “thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor any thing that is thy neighbour's” to just “find contentment.”

“Thou shalt not commit adultery” have been edited to “affair-proof your relationships”, and “honour thy father and thy mother” has altered to “keep the peace with your parents”.

J John claims his commandments enable "everyone to understand God's timeless principles on how we should live" and said he was inspired to write them by last summer’s riots.

He said: "Along with a lot of people I think about the way that we live nowadays and what leads people to do the sort of things that happened in the riots - whether or not we have forgotten something about a good way of living."

The Reverend Paul Roberts, 54, vicar of St John the Evangelist in Old Coulsdon, Surrey, which dates back to 1210 AD, is among those using the new commandments.

He said: "It's basically a way of presenting the Ten Commandments to help people connect with them in a positive way.

"Rather than just seeing them as a list of things you shouldn't do, it is meant to help people live as God intended for our good.

"Unlike the dos and don'ts most people imagine when quizzed about the maker's instructions, the message is meant to be both a challenge and an encouragement."

Wayne Dulson, 40, minister of Loughton Baptist Church, Essex said: "People really engaged with the Ten Commandments in a new and fresh way.

"People now see these commandments not as a set of rules but as a template for living so that we experience God's best for our lives.

"All ten commandments were extremely challenging, especially as the series helped us see them in the context of modern day living.

"People keep telling me how just10 has made them think much more about how they live their lives and also how much they have learnt about the commandments as they found out things they never knew before."

Steve Jenkins, spokesman for the Church of England, said they supported new ways of communicating and added: "The Book Of Common Prayer is very clear that the faith needs to be taught afresh in every generation."

Even former Conservative Shadow Home Secretary Ann Widdecombe, who left the Church of England after objecting to women priests, has backed J John's rules.

"I'd say it's not a patch on Moses but not a bad set of rules really," she said.

"What he's trying to do is offer a modern take on the original to explain it to a modern audience, which is fine as long as he doesn't dispense with the original."

The Telegraph

PM: I'll never let Israel live under shadow of annihilation

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned against allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons in his speech to the AIPAC Convention in Washington Monday night local time, vowing to never let Israel live under the shadow of annihilation or gamble with its security.

Addressing concerns about the cost a military strike aimed at stopping its nuclear program, Netanyahu said: "It's about time we start talking about the cost of not stopping Iran."


Iran, the prime minister asserted, must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.A nuclear-armed Iran, he warned, would provide a nuclear umbrella for terrorists and thereby increase global terrorism, could choke off the world's oil supply, and could threaten the world with nuclear terrorism.

Israel, he explained, has been waiting for years to see if diplomacy and sanctions against Iran's nuclear program would work, but said they have not been successful.

He warned that Israel cannot wait much longer.

As the prime minister of Israel, "I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation."

"In every generation, there are those who wish to destroy the Jewish people. In this generation, we are blessed to live in a time when there is a Jewish state capable of defending the Jewish people," he concluded, thanking AIPAC and the United States for supporting Israel and its right to self-defense.

The speech followed a meeting with US President Barack Obama at the White House earlier Monday, after which he said Israel's position on Iran was "accepted with understanding" by the American administration.

Jerusalem Post

Dutch Freedom Party pushes euro exit as €2.4 trillion rescue bill looms

"The euro is not in the interests of the Dutch people," said Geert Wilders, the leader of the right-wing populist party with a sixth of the seats in the Dutch parliament. "We want to be the master of our own house and our own country, so we say yes to the guilder. Bring it on."

Mr Wilders made his decision after receiving a report by London-based Lombard Street Research concluding that the Netherlands is badly handicapped by euro membership, and that it could cost EMU’s creditor core more than €2.4 trillion to hold monetary union together over the next four years. "If the politicians in The Hague disagree with our report, let them show the guts to hold a referendum. Let the Dutch people decide," he said.

Mr Wilders is not part of the coalition. However, the minority government of Mark Rutte relies on the Freedom Party to pass legislation. The two men were in talks on Monday on €16bn of fresh austerity cuts needed stop the budget deficit jumping to 4.5pc of GDP.

The study said the eurozone cannot survive in its current form. The longer Europe’s politicians dither, the more costly it will become. "The euro can only survive if it becomes a fiscal transfer union with national sovereign debt subsumed in eurozone bonds," said co-author Charles Dumas.

Greece will opt for a "negotiated exit" later this year, once the pain becomes excruciating. This will be after the French elections in May, but before the German electoral season begins in 2013.

Portugal will follow in "short order" as markets focus on its struggling banks and nasty logic of recession for debt dynamics. "At that point, if not before, attention will turn to Spain and Italy, both likely by then to be much weakened by savage austerity programmes now being implemented," said Mr Dumas.

That is the moment when the creditor core will face the decision they have "ducked" for the past two years: either accept an EMU reflation strategy, along with debt pooling, fiscal union, and transfers; or accept a break-up.

Under an "optimistic scenario" it would cost €1.3 trillion to shore up Med-Europe, rising to more than €2.4 trillion if Italy and Spain need some form of bond relief. "The staggering trillion bill to preserve the euro only takes us to 2015. In reality, most of the debts will never be repaid and subsidies will need to continue, year in and year out," said Mr Dumas.

The report said exit by Italy would be relatively easy. The country would recover once it regained currency freedom, though foreign bondholders would take an exchange rate hit. Spain’s exit would be harder to manage since it has a primary budget deficit of 7pc of GDP, and its companies have large euro debts abroad.

Exits costs will rise relentlessly for both countries over time. Prolonged economic depression within EMU would render their debt mostly worthless in the end. So if there is to be break-up, "the sooner the better".

Italy and Spain are more likely to hang on as long as they can, until Northern patience snaps. Germany and Holland would then leave, causing a general return to the "sanity" of floating currencies.

The report said Holland had fallen behind non-euro Sweden and Switzerland since the launch of EMU. Its growth rate dropped from 3pc over the preceding 20 years to 1.25pc under the euro, compared with 2.25pc in Sweden and 1.75pc in Switzerland. The Swedes have stolen a march worth €3,500 per head over the past decade.

The report said Sweden and Switzerland have performed better on every front, relying on currency swings to check imbalances. "They created more jobs than the Dutch and especially the Germans. They enjoyed lower inflation. They were more successful in balancing their budgets. And they have run larger current account surpluses. Only wishful thinking could absolve the euro from blame."

Holland had enjoyed a "one-off" gain of 2pc to 2.25pc of GDP from the launch of the euro, and transaction costs have fallen. However, the trade benefits have been scant. The value-added share of exports has not risen.

The pan-EMU convergence in borrowing costs cited for many years as the great success of EMU proved to be a curse. It let the South borrow too cheaply and too much, lulling creditors into a false sense of security, and ultimately led to the debt crisis.

The report conclude that EMU membership "locks the Netherlands into a system in which cost competitiveness is matched by massive structural over-valuation of costs in Med-Europe, resulting in deficits that will suck cash out of the core Eurozone".

Mr Wilders said the study "goes against everything we are told in the media and by the left-wing elite on a daily basis".

The Dutch government is unlikely to pay any attention to the findings, but the Freedom Party’s populist campaign may force Mr Rutte to take an even harder line in loan talks with Greece, Portugal and Ireland, or over the expansion of the EFSF rescue fund.

The Dutch are major net contributors to the EU budget and have long resented serving as a cash cow. They rejected the European Constitution by a wide margin in 2005. A bitter edge has crept into Dutch political discourse.

Mr Wilders is known for his astute political instincts. His demarche tells us all too clearly that Dutch patience is wearing very thin.

The Telegraph

Jefferson County Approved for Largest Muni Bankruptcy

Alabama’s Jefferson County is fully eligible for a Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection filing and can proceed with its $4.23 billion case, the biggest ever by an American municipality, a federal judge ruled.

Birmingham is the county seat of Jefferson County Alabama.
Overcoming arguments by creditors that the county was ineligible for bankruptcy protection because it had the wrong type of debt, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Thomas Bennett issued a ruling late Sunday in Birmingham, Ala., saying the complex case can go ahead.

Home to Birmingham, a business hub and Alabama’s biggest city, Jefferson County filed for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 9 after a tentative agreement with creditors unwound. The county’s finances had been savaged by massive sewer system debt, political corruption, and the loss of a vital local jobs tax.

Creditors such as JPMorgan Chase [JPM 39.7999 -0.6001 (-1.49%) ] had argued that Jefferson County was ineligible for a bankruptcy filing because the county had no bond debt as required by state law. Like most Alabama counties, Jefferson County only had warrants, a form of debt popular in the state since the 1930s that does not require direct voter approval.

Cases brought by other U.S. municipalities, such as Harrisburg, Penn., have been thrown out by other federal judges in recent months.

In a short written ruling rejecting the creditors’ arguments, Bennett said that Jefferson County “is insolvent, desires to effect a plan of adjustment of its debts, and has negotiated in good faith.”

CNBC

North Korea tested Iranian warhead or “dirty bomb” in 2010 for $55m

We report this on Monday March 5 
http://nunezreport.blogspot.com/search?q=NOrth+korea+test
And Now her comes the confirmation of the info from another source.

German and Japanese intelligence sources Monday, March 5, confirmed – and qualified - to DEBKAfile reports in the German Der Spiegel and Welt am Sonntag that Western intelligence had known for 11 months that at least one of North Korea’s covert nuclear tests in 2010 was carried out on an Iranian radioactive bomb or nuclear warhead.
Those sources report five facts are known for sure:

1. North Korea carried out two covert underground nuclear explosions in mid-April and around May 11 of 2010 equivalent to 50- 200 tonnes of TNT.

2. Two highly lethal heavy hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium,  typical of a nuclear fission explosion and producing long-term contamination of the atmosphere, were detected and analyzed by  Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBOTO) monitoring stations in South Korea, Japan and Russia.

3. The presence of tritium in one of the tests led several intelligence agencies watching North Korea’s nuclear program and its longstanding links with Iran and Syria to examine the possibility that Pyongyang had tested the internal mechanism of a nuclear warhead on Iran’s behalf.  This strongly indicated to German and Japanese intelligence that Iran had already developed the nuclear warhead’s outer shell and attained its weaponization.

4.  Another possibility examined was that North Korea had tested an Iranian “dirty bomb” – i.e. a conventionally detonated device containing nuclear substances. Tritium would boost its range, force and lethality.

This was one of the conclusions of atmospheric scientist Larsk-Erik De Geer of the Swedish Defense Research Agency in Stockholm, who spent a year studying the data collected by various CTBOTO stations tracking the North Korean explosions.
On February 3, De Greer published some of his findings and conclusions in Nature Magazine. His paper will appear in the April/May issue of the Science and Global Security Journal.

5. The Japanese and German sources found confirmation of their suspicions that North Korea had abetted Iran’s nuclear aspirations in three events:

a)   Shortly after the April explosion, a large group of Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians arrived in Pyongyang. They apparently came to take part in setting up the second test in May.
b)  In late April, Tehran shipped to Pyongyang a large quantity of uranium enriched to 20+ percent – apparently for use in the May test.
c)  Straight after the May test, the Central Bank of Iran transferred $55 million to the account of the North Korean Atomic Energy Commission. The size of the sum suggests that it covered the fee to North Korea not just of one but the two tests – the first a pilot and the second, a full-stage test.

It is not by chance that this incriminating disclosure about Iran’s nuclear achievements sees the light Monday, just hours before US Barack Obama receives Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in the White house for an argument over an expeditious military action to stop Iran going all the way to a nuclear weapon.

The disclosure invalidates the main point the US President made in his speech Sunday to the pro-Israeli lobby AIPAC convention in Washington that there was still time for diplomatic pressure and sanctions to bring Iran’s leaders to a decision to halt their nuclear momentum before military action was called for, whether by the US or Israel.

It now appears that Western intelligence has known about the North Korean tests for Iran for eleven months. Therefore, it is too late for him to try and persuade the Israeli prime minister that there is still time to spare for cutting short a nuclear Iran.

It was announced in Washington Monday that no joint American-Israeli communiqué would be issued at the end of their talks, meaning they will have agreed to disagree: Obama, to stand by his opposition to military action against Iran; Netanyahu, to decide what Israel must do in the interests of its security.
There is no doubt he would have preferred an American initiative for - or partnership in - an operation for curtailing the Iranian nuclear threat. But that is not part of Obama’s policy.  

Debkafile

Tornado outbreak in Tennessee and Ohio Valley; Towns destroyed, state of emergency in Kentucky

11:00 p.m. (and final) update: On his Twitter feed, Al Roker posted that Greg Forbes, the Weather Channel’s severe weather expert, said today’s outbreak might be the largest on record in March. It will be a few days before the full extent of this outbreak has been assessed. 94 tornado reports have been logged today, but there may be some double counting. The record for the largest March outbreak is 74 from March 11-13, 2006.

Today’s death toll is now at least 28 (12 in Kentucky, 14 in Indiana, and 2 in Ohio). The National Weather Service has issued 269 tornado and 335 severe thunderstorm warnings (see remarkable map). Surely, without these warnings, the death toll would be much higher. NWS deserves much credit for its timely and accurate warnings today.

At the moment, the only active tornado warnings are in north central Georgia and east central Alabama. From this point forward, the region from south central Mississippi through western South Carolina probably has the highest chance of severe weather. Thunderstorms further north - responsible for the balance of today’s tornado outbreak - have been steadily weakening.

10:00 p.m. update: The Weather Channel is now reporting 27 fatalities from today’s outbreak. 11 are dead in Kentucky according to WKYT. (14 died in Indiana and 2 in Ohio).


While some thunderstorms are weakening as they work closer to the Appalachians, a number of tornado warnings continue in eastern Tennessee, southwest Virginia and northern Georgia and Alabama.

An incredible 77 tornado reports have been filed today.

Links: latest tornado warnings | Storm reports today


Tornado probabilities into the night within 25 miles of any point as of 7:30 p.m. Via Storm Prediction Center.9:00 p.m. update: Multiple fatalities are now being reported out of West Liberty, Kentucky where a violent tornado appears to have hit earlier this evening. Tornado warnings continue tonight from far southwest Virginia and off to the southwest, including one in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, Ga.

8:00 p.m. update: As storms begin to run into the Appalachians, more than a dozen tornado warnings are active from West Virginia through eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, then down into the Gulf Coast states. The threat is expected to last into the night, particularly in the southeast U.S. where a large area of high tornado potential still exists.

Up to eight people are now reported killed by the storms across southern Indiana, and numbers in the region are likely to grow. The Kentucky National Guard is moving into the town of West Liberty where reports of a mass casualty event have come in.

If you’re looking for tornado videos from today, check out this compilation.


A tornadic storm bears down on West Liberty, Ky. earlier this evening where multiple casualties are now being reported. Radar image via Stu Ostro.6:55 p.m. update: The state ofKentucky has been placed under a state of emergency as storms that have destroyed several small towns in southern Indiana shift east. In the last hour, over 20 additional tornado warnings have been issued and we’re now closing in on 200 tornado warnings on the day with 67 reports of tornadoes on the ground. Both numbers continue to climb as tornadic storms impact areas from eastern Ohio to Mississippi and Alabama. If most of the tornadoes that were reported today are confirmed, this outbreak is well placed to surpass the previous March calendar day record of 59.

Of particular concern are a number of radar signatures, like the one shown in this loop of an apparently mass casualty causing storm in Kentucky, indicating debris being picked up near the southern end of the hook (where the tornado is). In the coming period, eastern Kentucky and into eastern Tennessee (Chattanooga in central Tn. faced its second tornado warning of the day recently) are under the gun for the most intense storms, but supercells capable of producing tornadoes continue in a line to the south and east.


Tornado watches cover a large chunk of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and the South. (NOAA SPC)

5:55 p.m. update: A mind-boggling number (26) of tornado warnings continue, with a large concentrationin central and eastern Kentucky into southern Ohio. As darkness approaches, the tornado danger grows due to difficulty in spotting them (and verifying those seen on radar).

There have been 53 tornado reports so far today. Here is a frighteningimage of the tornado that destroyed the town of Henryville, Indiana. And another image showing the aftermath.

5:30 p.m. update: CNN Weather reports there are presently 22 active tornado warnings and 5 tornado watches, covering 5 states.

5:25 p.m. update: Nick Walker of the Weather Channel (@wxdude on Twitter) reports golf ball sized hail and damage to building roofs in Nashville as tornadic thunderstorm came through.

5:15 p.m. update: As we await word on the situation in Nashville, a tornado warning is in effect for Bowling Green, Kentucky through 5:45 ET.

More bad news out of Indiana: in addition to the town of Marysville, the town of Henryville was also destroyed by a tornado earlier today.


Radar shows tornadic thunderstorm approaching south side of Nashille at 4:55 p.m. ET (3:55 CT) . (Wunderground.com)5:00 p.m. update: Nashville faces a very dangerous situation as a thunderstorm with a history of producing tornadoes and large hail bears down. A tornado warning continues there. Damage has been been reported just to the west of Nashville in Dickson.

In southern Indiana, state police report at least 6 people died from the earlier twisters. Photos from town of Marysville, Indiana largely wiped out.

4:40 p.m. update: Tornado warning now out for Nashville, Tennessee until 4:15 p.m. local time (5:15 p.m. eastern time).

4:30 p.m. update: Tornadic thunderstorms continue to batter southeast Indiana, northern and western Kentucky, and parts of Tennessee and northern Alabama and Mississippi. There have been 37 reported tornadoes so far today, 104 tornado warnings issued and 214 severe weather reports.

Tornadic thunderstorms are currently positioned south of both Cincinnati and Louisville. Even though these storms may miss these urban centers, southern suburbs may take a hard hit.

Another thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado is about 30 minutes to the west of Nashville, moving in that general direction.

Meanwhile, a new particularly dangerous situation tornado watch has been issued for eastern Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and western and central West Virginia until midnight.


4:05 p.m. update: The Associated Press reporting 1 town - Marysville - “gone” amidst extreme tornado damage in southern Indiana.

3:50 p.m. update: The tornado report count is up to 31 and tornado warnings are currently in effect in 8 states.

A high school in Henryville, Indiana was struck by a tornado, and severely damaged. A twitter report indicates 30 people trapped.

3:25 p.m. update: The situation in southern Indiana (see 2:55 p.m. update below) is dire. CNN reports there are 2 large, destructive tornadoes on ground along I-65 northwest of Louisville, KY. Both Louisville and Cincinnati, OH need to very carefully track these storms.


Indiana towns of Nabb, Henryville, and New Pekin have been hit hard according to reports.

There have been 26 reports of tornadoes so far today.


Radar at 2:51 p.m. in western Kentucky and southern Indiana. Red polygons indicate tornado warnings in effect at that time.2:55 p.m. update: The radar imagein southern Indiana stretching into extreme western Kentucky is extraordinarily ominous. A train of rotating, supercell thunderstorms have developed, with seven tornado warnings currently in that region. These storms are generally northwest of Louisville and northeast of Paducah.

2:25 p.m. update: The tornado outbreak continues. Since 10 a.m. this morning, the National Weather Service has issued 51 tornado warnings (source:@stormchaster4850).

Another tornado watch has been issued for northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, and western and central Tennessee through 9 p.m. local time.

Reports from Twitter and the National Weather Service indicate significant damage occurred from a tornado in Posey County, Indiana.

Meanwhile, more pictures are coming in from the damage from the tornado in northern Alabama this morning. Slideshow.

At the moment tornado warnings are in effect in five states: Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina

1:05 p.m. update: A new particularly dangerous situation tornado watch has been issued for central and southern Indiana, central and eastern Kentucky, and southwest Ohio through 9 p.m. local time. It includes the cities of Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus, Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green

To the west, a tornado and/or funnel cloud was spotted southwest of Cape Girardeau in southeast Missouri. It should pass between Scott City and Cape Girardeau. Watch live stream. The tornado warning for that area expires at 1:45 p.m. (ET, 12:45 p.m. CT).

In Tennessee, Twitter reports indicate significant damage from a possible tornado in the Chattanooga area near Island Cove Marina

The tornado that ripped through northern Alabama earlier, not far from Huntsville, destroyed several homes according to reports. It also damaged a correctional facility.


A large area of the eastern U.S. is under a slight, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms today. (NOAA SPC)11:35 a.m. update: High severe thunderstorm risk area (described below) has been expanded to include southwest Ohio and more of southern Indiana (see graphic to right).Additional areas may soon be under tornado watches. Also,major/significant damage has been reported in the Huntsville, Alabama area from a tornadothat swept through the region.

OVERVIEW OF SITUATION(from 10:40 a.m.): NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and extreme south central Indiana under a “high risk” of severe thunderstorms today. The “high risk” designation is reserved for the most dire severe weather situations, and used only a few times a year on average.

Notably, a particularly dangerous situation tornado watch has been issued for central and southern Illinois, central and southern Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri until 6 p.m. local time. “Destructive” and “significant” tornadoes are possible in this area.

A tornado watch has been issued for northern Alabama, northwest Georgia, and middle and eastern Tennessee through 3 p.m. Tornado warnings have already been issued across northern Alabama and east Tennessee with at least one report of a tornado on the ground.

“Long-track, strong tornadoes” are possible today, especially in the high risk zone. Areas under a moderate and slight risk of severe thunderstorms also have significantly elevated potential for violent weather. The severe storm risk covers approximately 56% of the U.S. and affects 162 million people according to NOAA.

Here’s an excerpt from SPC’s statement on the storm threat:

THE MORE SERIOUS SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ... WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER EAST

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY ... A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ... ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OH IORIVER FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

The Weather Channel’s severe weather expert Greg Forbes has raised itsTOR:CON index to a 9 out of a possible 10 in parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. This means there is a very high probability of tornadoes in this region. Forbes said: “I would expect to see dozens of tornadoes in a frenzied afternoon.”


Significant tornado parameter values greater than 1 are bounded by the dashed red line. The highest levels span from northern Alabama through southern Indiana. (NOAA SPC)SPC’s tornado assessment indicates there is as high as 30% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given point within the high risk area. Some of these tornadoes may reach EF-2 intensity or higher.

One of the tools forecasters use to assess tornado potential, known as the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP), shows extraordinarily high values in the high risk area. NOAA’s SPC notes “a majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1”.

In addition to the tornado threat, the probabilities for destructive non-tornado winds and large hail are very high at around 45%, covering a large portion of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Cities that may be affected by this potential outbreak include:

Tupelo, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Huntsville, Nashville, Evansville, Louisville, Bowling Green, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Columbus.

Last night, the National Weather Service Office in Nashville warned the following:

[THIS EVENT MAY BE] THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY.

Washington Post