Nouri al-Maliki gave his most unequivocal support yet to the Assad regime, and even hinted that its downfall could force Iraq into an Iranian-led alliance against the Arab world's Sunni states.
"The killing or removal of President Bashar in any way will explode into an internal struggle between two groups and this will have an impact on the region," said Mr Maliki, refering to predictions of region wide conflict between Sunni Muslims and the Shia sect. "It will end with civil war and this civil war will lead to alliances in the region. Because we are a country that suffered from the civil war of a sectarian background, we fear for the future of Syria and the whole region."
Although relations with Mr Assad, once a strong supporter of Saddam despite being a member of the Alawite Shia sect, were initially strained, his regime has collaborated with Baghdad to curb militant groups linked to al-Qaeda operating along the Iraqi-Syrian border.
Many in Mr Maliki's coalition fear that if Syria's Sunni majority were to come to power, it could revitalise Sunni militants in Iraq's Anbar province who fought a long and bloody insurgency in the aftermath of the US invasion and who may harbour secessionist intentions.
Mr Maliki has refused to align Iraq with a growing Arab consensus to ostracise the Syrian regime for its repression of the uprising against Mr Assad.
Iraq was also one of only three states in the 22-member League that declined to support Syria's suspension from the bloc. More than 4,000 civilians have died in Syria since the uprising began in March, according to the UN.
The vestiges of support from its neighbours grants Damascus valuable relief from the enclosing grip of world opinion. Syria yesterday ignored the Arab League's latest deadline to accept a regional observer mission to monitor its commitment to ending state-sponsored violence in the country, where 30 people were killed in the latest bloodshed.
The continued defiance has led to the Arab League announcing sanctions against Syria in the form of an asset freeze and travel bans on 19 leading individuals within the regime.
Flights between Damascus and Arab states are also to be reduced.
But it is Mr Maliki's intimation that Mr Assad's overthrow could cause a rift between Sunni and Shia states that will cause the deepest alarm in Washington.
Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's Sunni Arab government, power in Iraq has, under US tutelage, passed to the country's Shia majority.
Hardline Shia factions in Iraq have condemned the Arab League for moving against Mr Assad as part of a Saudi-led plot to weaken Iran, which counts Damascus as its closest regional ally.
The influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, are openly by Iran. In an effort to demonstrate his loyalty to Iran, Moqtada recently described Mr Assad as a "brother".
Others claimed there was an intention to supplant Tehran's influence over Damascus with Saudi-inspired Wahabbism, one of the most puritanical strains of Sunni Islam."If Saudi Arabia becomes influential in Syria, the Wahabbis will join forces with the people in Western Iraq," a senior Shia politician in Iraq told local newspapers.
Iraq's relationship with Iran is, however, complex and its own divisions will be at the forefront of Baghdad's concerns over Syria's deepening divisions.
Aware that many of his people still view Iran with distrust, and have little desire to become a satellite of Tehran, Mr Maliki has insisted that he is trying to steer a neutral course between the growing rivalry for Middle East hegemony between the Saudi and Iranian governments.
"Iraq is not a follower of any country," he said. "Clearly, we are no enemy to Iran and we do not accept that some who have problems with Iran would use us as a battlefield. Some want to fight Iran with Iraqi resources as has happened in the past. We do not allow Iran to use us against others that Iran has problems with, and we do not allow others to use us against Iran."
The Telegraph
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