Rare Northern Pacific Storm takes shape as it aims Southern California

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Upper level winds will take the center of a storm system over the Southern California area on Thursday and Friday, giving the area some wild and unique weather in any region of the country.This pattern is a once a decade type pattern with the potential of strong Santa Ana Winds combined with precipitation, including low snow levels. The last time this happened was November 2004 and many across Southern California would rememeber it, especially east of Los Angeles.


I went ahead and did a video forecast for the event, but to summarize what the video shows ... a plot map (imaged above) was used instead of tracking the center of the storm on other models. I decided to try a method I use for hurricane tracks in the long range, this being a cutoff low and of the unpredictable variety. 

The storm system will come in on Thursday and Friday. So far on the TWS' Southern California Weather Authority site there is a Special Weather Statement and Santa Ana Wind Watch.

NOAA's models bring a drier solution to the area, but I cannot let go of the tracking method I use for long range just yet. Until this goes too far east then this storm is still very much in play for Southern California.

Factors with system will go as followed ...

Track 1 - 2004 type pattern in-which strong upper level vorticity and temperature advection produced rapid convection and thunderstorms across the Southern California area, excluding Ventura County and points north and west of there. This was combined with a Santa Ana Wind event in-which thunderstorms + santa ana winds and low snow levels hit the southland. This is a rare but very powerful scenario.

Track 2 - The storm takes on a 2005-6 pattern in-which the center of the dynamics missed to the east, over Desert Center (Riverside County Deserts) and gave the area light snow and isolated thunderstorms.

Track 3 - Hits the California and Arizona border, misses the Southland and only gives a very strong Santa Ana Wind Event.

All scenarios are possible, but the track I see is very close to either Track 1 and if there was an in-between 1 and 2. Regardless, this is enough to warrant snowfall in the forecast at 3,000 feet and possibly low, powerful santa ana winds, thunderstorms, and much cooler temperatures regionwide.