NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- With its winners and losers, Wall Street is often likened to a big casino for obvious reasons. And even when it comes to a possible U.S. default next week, at least a few financial players are looking to cash in on such a bleak turn of events.
A small camp of investors are betting that the U.S. government will default on its debt, and they're putting $4.8 billion of their chips on the table.
In the event of a default, that's how much financial firms will have to pay out to investors who bought credit default swaps against the U.S. government, according to figures from the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp.
With only a week to go until the government breaches its debt ceiling, are these few investors likely to come away with the winnings of a lifetime?
Probably not, experts say.
"I think we're a long way away from considering this hypothetical [case]," said Otis Casey, director of credit research at Markit.
Debt ceiling: What happens if Congress doesn't raise it?
A credit default swap, or CDS, is basically an insurance contract against a default, and in this case, $4.8 billion is quite meager in comparison to what those on the other side of the bet are putting down.
Private investors -- including everyone from individual consumers to hedge funds to the Chinese government -- currently hold $9.3 trillion (with a T!) in Treasury bonds, and they're counting on Uncle Sam paying up when those contracts mature.
But if they're wrong to count on the "full faith and credit of the U.S. government" and the U.S. stops paying bondholders principal and interest, Treasury investors could lose some of those funds.
In contrast, the small group of CDS investors could demand payment from the investment banks that sold them their "insurance" contracts.
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