Observers tell the 'Post' that like Iraq, Syria’s diverse sects could turn on each other once the regime is gone.
he overthrow of Syrian dictator Basher Assad is not yet imminent, but should it occur, a bloodbath between Syria’s various sects would likely follow, leading Israeli experts on Syria told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
As in neighboring Iraq, Syria’s diverse population – made up of Sunni Muslims, Druse, Kurds and other groups, who are ruled by the minority Alawites – could, upon the collapse of the Assad regime, turn on each other in a bloody civil conflict.
“I think there would be a bloodbath if Assad falls. The Iraqi situation is relevant,” said Eyal Zisser, a professor of Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv University.
Zisser, who formerly headed the university’s Moshe Dayan Center Middle East think tankadded, “We’re not there yet. The protests are however getting bigger, and more and more forces are joining in. They are spreading to other parts of the country.”
At the same time, around half of the Syrian population, concentrated in the major urban centers of Damascus and Aleppo, are “sitting on the fence” and not taking an active part in protests calling for Assad to leave.
“They are frightened of the unknown, and of the anarchy that could follow,” Zisser added.
Asked how important a role Islamist groups were playing in recent events, Zisser said, “We must remember that 40 percent of Syrians are members of minority groups. This means it is not easy for Islamists to take over. They are there as a political force, but they don’t have exclusive control.”
Jerusalem Post
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