In the event of significant seismic activity along the New Madrid fault line, experts say damage to the Ozarks will most likely be more severe than that of recent tremors in Arkansas, but not on the scale of damage caused by the Feb. 22 earthquake in New Zealand. Polk County will need to be self-sustaining for several days and can expect to take in evacuees from the harder-hit areas of east and southeast Missouri.
The New Madrid fault line falls through the Missouri bootheel and could affect six other states.
“Most of what we’ve been told by state and federal officials is that if it’s based on a 7.2 we would feel, obviously, some shaking,” Bolivar Emergency Manager Kermit Hargis said. “There could be some damage to buildings, but nothing like the catastrophic damage we would see in southeast Missouri.”
A rock formation between the Ozarks and the New Madrid fault line would absorb some of the shock of an earthquake, Hargis said. Land along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers will fare differently, according to Steve Besemer, earthquake program manager with the State Emergency Management Agency.
“Softer, wetter type soils tend to amplify, to make the shaking worse,” Besemer said.
Damage from a severe quake could affect food and fuel supply, creating a national emergency.
“St. Louis could suffer some serious damage and a lot of things could happen in St. Louis and Memphis, two cities that are major players in the Midwest,” Hargis said. “This earthquake, when it happens, is going to have a major impact on the whole United States.”
Old masonry would be a factor for some buildings, including those along the Bolivar square, Polk County Emergency Manager Rick Lewis said.
See Earthquake Page 2A
“Some of our town squares still have old buildings like that,” Lewis said. “They may be fine, but it’s a possibility that we may lose some of those buildings.
“Our biggest issue, because of the way that our rock tables are, is the possibility of water wells being damaged,” Lewis said.
Water and gas lines could rupture as well, Hargis said.
Recent tremors in Arkansas are called a swarm, Besemer said, which usually consists of several small earthquakes under a 4.0 magnitude.
“Most of them are in the 1-2 magnitude range,” he said. “If you’re up over it, you’re not going to feel it. They’re still trying to really get a handle on what’s going on in Arkansas and the cause.”
The quake in Christchurch, New Zealand, was an aftershock of a bigger earthquake in September, Besemer said. However, the aftershock was shallower and closer to the city.
“It’s actually caused more problems. Those are the kind of variables you take into account.”
Influx
The Ozarks would become a temporary home for those evacuating from the disaster and those traveling to respond to it, Lewis said.
“West is the only way they’re going to be able to go because they won’t be able to cross the river,” Lewis said. “A lot of it’s going to be where it attacks at, too. If it’s the St. Louis area, they’re probably going to go north or straight west. But if it’s in the bootheel area, we’re probably going to get a lot of people from the bootheel.”
The state plan even calls for the Ozarks to receive evacuees from a New Madrid earthquake, Hargis said.
“We’ll be working with regional people on identifying shelter locations and how take a massive amount of people that could move into this area, just like they did with Hurricane Katrina,” he said.
“Our plans are to handle it like we do any other emergency and see what happens. If our damages aren’t too bad, then we’ll be sending people to [the affected] area.”
Disaster kit
The last sizable earthquake in this area was two centuries ago, Hargis said.
“Because we’ve never been through it, I really don’t know entirely what to expect. I do know, as hard as we’re hit, that area of southeast Missouri is going to be a lot worse. People need to be prepared like they do for any other emergency.
“The moral of the story is everybody needs to prepare by having a disaster kit, being able to self-sustain for four or five days without electricity, without water.”
First responders, including fire, police and emergency medical, will probably be delayed or unable to respond, Besemer said.
“They’re going to be kind of dealing with their own situations, their family situation,” Besemer said. “They may be injured. The equipment may be damaged or can’t get out.”
Have a kit ready and remember to include medication and supplies for pets, Lewis said.
“Have money accessible, because if the power grid goes, our ATMs go out.”
Earthquake meeting
A community earthquake preparedness meeting set for earlier this month was postponed due to the blizzard. It is rescheduled for 6:30 p.m. Thursday, June 9, Hargis said.
The location is tentative. Watch the BH-FP for more information.
“Usually, with these big earthquakes, you don’t get much of a warning, much of a building of earthquakes prior to that,” Besemer said. “The bottom line is we really don’t get any warning at all for something like that.”
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