Putin wants to show he is key player in Middle East region

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose support for Syrian President Bashar Assad is straining his ties with the West, is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday for a short trip one diplomatic official said is designed to send a clear message to the world: Russia is a key player in the region that needs to be taken into account.

While the official purpose of the 24-hour visit will be to dedicate a memorial in Netanya to the Red Army defeat of the Nazis, talks between Putin and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will center on Russia’s policy of propping up Assad in Syria and on the talks with Iran. Russia is a member of the P5+1 group – which also includes the US, China, France, Britain and Germany – negotiating with Tehran.

Putin last visited Israel in 2005, during his first term as president in a ground-breaking first-ever Russian presidential visit here. While one diplomatic official acknowledged the differences of opinions between Moscow and Jerusalem on issues surrounding Iran, Syria and the diplomatic process with the Palestinians, it was critical for Israel to keep open a good channel of communication with the Kremlin.

Moscow, the official said, also recognizes that Israel is a central player in the region, even if it is firmly in the American camp.

Another diplomatic official – again not downplaying the policy differences between Israel and Russia – said that there has been an “amazing improvement” in ties with Moscow since the Soviet era, when the Kremlin actively helped Israel’s worst enemies with the goal of hurting Israel.

“Obviously we don’t agree about everything,” the official said, “but we have a constructive dialogue.”

During an interview published Thursday in The Washington Post, Defense Minister Ehud Barak alluded to the conversation that needed to be had with Russia regarding Syria.

Asked whether he thought the West should arm the Syrian opposition, Barak said many steps should be taken, adding that “Russia has invested a lot of political capital and money in the [Assad] regime. They should have a certain role if we want to succeed.”

Barak said that if “America and Russia talk[ed] together about who can use what leverage, that could be extremely effective... It’s time for the world to dictate to Mr. Assad to move out of power or else. But the ‘or else’ can be convincing only if America and Russia will join hands,” he said.

Barak said he thought the Russians could “in an honest, frank discussion” be convinced to cooperate on Syria. “They could have a major role in helping to solve the Syrian issue.”

Putin, accompanied by a delegation that includes a large entourage of 60 journalists, will land Monday morning and be met by Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, who met him in Moscow late last year and declared that the presidential elections there were fair and democratic. That position was controversial and at odds with the declared position of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Putin will go directly to Netanya for the dedication of the memorial, believed to be one of the only, if not the only, memorial to the Red Army in a country that was not formerly part of the Soviet bloc. One government official said this showed “the unique historic relationship between the two countries.”

Netanyahu announced the plans to build the memorial commemorating the Red Army’s victory over Germany in World War II during his visit to Moscow in February 2010.

Approximately 25 million Soviets were killed during World War II, including some 11 million Red Army soldiers.

The number of Jews who fought in the Red Army has been put at around 500,000, of which nearly 200,000 are believed to have been killed.

Following the dedication ceremony, Putin will go to Jerusalem for meetings with Netanyahu. There will be a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders, followed by statements to the press and a working luncheon with staff.

Liberman will attend that meeting, as well as a meeting in the evening between Putin and President Shimon Peres.

Peres will then host a state dinner in the Russian leader’s honor.

The next day, Putin will travel to Bethlehem to dedicate a Russian cultural center, and then on to Jericho where a meeting is expected with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. From there, he will go to Jordan for talks with King Abdullah II, and then back to Moscow.

Jerusalem Post

Bank downgrade "shocker" aims to plant fear and panic

Increased Seismic Activity in Iceland’s Katla Volcano

Increased seismic activity was detected in Mýrdalsjökull glacier in south Iceland, under which the volcano Katla lies, last night. Twenty-six minor earthquakes were picked up by sensors, all of which had their epicenter within the Katla crater.

A seismic activity expert on watch at the Icelandic Meteorological Office informed ruv.is that the earthquake swarm had started at 1 am and continued through 5 am.

However, there is no reason to be concerned about an imminent volcanic eruption or glacial outburst in Katla. The earthquakes were all shallow and originated in seismic activity in the geothermal system.

Iceland Review

Germany Faces Delay in Ratifying Euro Rescue Fund

The pleasant news arrived from the northeastern port city of Rostock on Thursday. German President Joachim Gauck was to be named an honorary citizen of the city of his birth. The other news, which came from the southwestern city of Karlsruhe, was not as uplifting. The judges on Germany's highest court, the Federal Constitutional Court, had asked the president to delay signing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Union fiscal pact into law.

The Constitutional Court, anticipating challenges to the legislation, wanted more time to review documents. Gauck, hardly three months in office, was already faced with an important decision. If he complied with the request from Karlsruhe, at least one piece of legislation proposed by Chancellor Merkel and her coalition government -- the permanent bailout fund known as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) -- would undoubtedly be delayed. The ESM was originally scheduled to come into force on July 1, 2012.

Now the ESM will have to wait.

Gauck doesn't want to sign the two laws, at least for now, when they are presented to the two houses of the German legislature -- the federal parliament, the Bundestag, and the upper legislative chamber, the Bundesrat -- for ratification next week. However, laws in Germany are only considered ratified, and therefore binding under international law, when signed by the president. Now it could take another two or three weeks before the court rules on possible emergency appeals.

Declining a request by the Constitutional Court judges, especially on such a delicate matter, would have created a massive conflict and set off a debate on the question of whether a German president in cases of doubt has the power to ignore Karlsruhe. It was a conflict Gauck was anxious to avoid. According to a statement by the president's office, Gauck intended to "comply with the request, in keeping with standard government practice among the constitutional bodies, and out of respect for the Federal Constitutional Court, as soon as the Bundestag and the Bundesrat have adopted the corresponding treaty laws."

For Merkel, this means that what has already been a grueling struggle over rescuing the euro is now entering the next phase. A ratification on July 1 would have sent a strong signal to the financial markets: Namely that the euro rescue is going according to plan. But now, at least for a while, it will remain subject to a possible decision from the Karlsruhe court. That may not be a disaster, but it is a symbolic setback for European leaders seeking to rescue the euro. Once again, those plans face another delay.


Spiegel

Ahmadinejad calls for 'new world order' without nuclear monopoly

Iran's president defended his nation's right to develop nuclear energy on Thursday during a visit to Brazil.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's press conference came two days after nuclear talks with world powers in Moscow ended without progress. He spoke to journalists on the sidelines of the UN conference on sustainable development being held this week in Rio de Janeiro.

In order to tackle the social and economic inequalities and the injustice currently undermining human dignity world-wide, there is a great need for a "new world order," he said through a Portuguese-speaking translator.

"This order would be based on compassion and justice, and in it, all humanity would be respected," he said, pointing out that in the world today, a small minority has the power to make decisions, without consideration for the needs of the majority.

A sign of the injustice in the current world order, he said, is the nuclear proliferation question.

"The countries that have nuclear arms today, and that at certain moments used those arms, today through threats are telling other countries they cannot have these weapons," he said. "We believe that nuclear energy, along with other forms of energy, should be accessible to all nations and is the right of all nations. But nowadays, it is monopolized by a few."

In the talks between Tehran and six world powers that ended Tuesday, the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany argued that Iran should stop enriching uranium to the point where it is steps away from being usable in nuclear warheads. Iranian leaders during the talks said the country is not pursuing nuclear weapons, and that the uranium is only meant for medical uses and to make reactor fuel.

Haaretz

URGENT Syria air defenses down Turkish military plane over Latakia

The Turkish military reported Friday, June 22, that radar and radio contact was lost with a Turkish air force F-4 plane after it took off from Erhac Airport in the eastern province of Malatya while flying over the sea opposite the Turkish-Syrian border. 

The incident took place not far from the Syrian port of Latakia.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Syrian anti air defenses shot the plane down in an ambush calculated to retaliate for the defection of the Syrian Air Force pilot Col. Hassan Maray al-Hamadeh to Jordan a day earlier with his MiG-21 warplane. Officials in Damascus are certain his defection was organized by US and Turkish intelligence.

DamPress and other Syrian news agencies reported at 16:00 local time Friday that two military aircraft infiltrated Syrian airspace over Latakia and broke the sound barrier while flying low in threatening formation. 

One was hit by Syrian anti-air fire and the second escaped. DamPress speculates that the intruders were either Turkish or Israeli. The Turkish press reported later that a search operation rescued the two pilots of the downed aircraft from the sea. The plane has not been found. Since Thursday, Syria’s entire air fleet has been grounded while its spy agencies screen flight personnel for more potential defectors.

DEBKAfile

Syria Possess Vast Quantities of Chemical Weapons

WASHINGTON, D.C. -The Syrian Army is by regional standards a highly-capable military force and its air force is one of the largest in the Middle East.

In addition to that, Western experts believe Syria has a large chemical weapons arsenal including mustard gas, the more modern sarin and even VX - the most toxic of all chemical agents.

“Unlike Moammar Gadhafi, who had basically dismantled his chemical weapons,” said John Pike, head of Globalsecurity.com, “the Syrians have a very active poison gas program.” Pike says they have “the medium-range ballistic missiles that would enable them to deliver it to the neighborhood - certainly to Israel and Turkey, but not farther afield, certainly not to western European countries.”

Experts say there is little hard data on Syria’s chemical weapons program because the country has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention that outlaws the production, possession and use of such weapons. Most of the estimates come from intelligence agencies and analysts.

Deterrence Against Israel

Charles Blair, with the Federation of American scientists, says it makes sense for the Syrians to have a chemical weapons arsenal because they need some sort of deterrent against the Israelis.

“In 2007 the Israelis destroyed what at that point were nuclear reactors going up in what was believed was the nascent Syrian nuclear program.” Blair said “It’s entirely possible that after that, the Syrians redoubled their efforts with their chemical deterrent because they no longer had a nuclear route.”

Experts believe the chemical weapons - known as "the poor man’s nuclear weapon" - are produced in four or five facilities in Syria and stored in dozens of places throughout the country.

Weapons are secure

Aram Nerguizian, a Syria expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says these sites are well protected.

“A lot of talk about securing these facilities so far is moot,” he said, “because a lot of the elite units in the Syrian military are critical to maintaining the safeguards on those facilities. There is a strong sense of confidence within the U.S. defense community, that the Syrian armed forces currently have strong safeguards in place.”

There has been some debate about what to do to secure the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal if the crisis escalates. Some reports have indicated that the U.S. Defense Department is drawing up contingency plans to secure that arsenal.

But Charles Blair is skeptical about such an endeavor, saying “the only way that you could envision really securing the Syrian stockpile is with a large force.” He says the Department of Defense estimates that “it would take 75,000 U.S. forces to properly secure it. And there is no large standing Western army anywhere near Syria. “I don’t think there is any way that the West can secure the stockpiles," he said.

Analysts also believe it is essential to make sure that those chemical weapons don’t fall into the hands of groups like Hezbollah or al-Qaida. Experts also fear that the rebels fighting the Syrian government might obtain those arms - but they point out that right now, the rebels don’t have the necessary military systems to deliver them.

VOA