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Wednesday, January 23, 2013
I guarantee it´s going to be a huge recession....Buffett
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) – Mr. Buffett, “do you think there will be another bubble leading to a huge recession?” asked the interviewer. Oh yes, in fact, “I can guarantee it.” Guarantee it.
The interviewer shook his head: “Why can’t we learn the lessons of the last recession? Look where greed has gotten us.” Then with one of his familiar impish grins, the great master replied, “Greed is fun for a while. People can’t resist it.” But “however far human beings have come, we haven’t grown up emotionally at all. We remain the same.”
Warren Buffett made that prediction shortly after the 2008 Wall Street banking meltdown. The world’s third-richest billionaire personally guaranteeing another bubble ... guaranteeing America another market meltdown ... guaranteeing the world another “huge recession.” Now here we are four years later, and the ticking time bomb gets louder as we keep watching an avalanche of predictions echoing Buffett’s warnings.
Deepak Chopra mentions Buffett’s on-air prediction in the “Shadow Effect,” a brilliant bit of psychology that helps explain why the investor’s brain is trapped in denial, incapable of hearing a warning of a market and economic collapse.
Uncle Warren must be chomping at the bit, sitting on a cash hoard, more than $20 billion, waiting to rush in, buy when the bottom drops, exposing millions of investors lulled back by those pre-2008 delusions about a new long-term bull market.
In another era, Buffett would rival Freud and Jung in diagnosing human behavior accurately. But today, he’s using his psychological genius to outwit Wall Street’s perennial bulls and America’s 95 million gullible Main Street investors.
Buffett’s prediction “guaranteeing another huge recession” was actually a no-brainer. Read William J. O’Neil’s bestseller “How to Make Money in Stocks.” The publisher of the Investors Business Daily is one of the best numbers guys in the world. In his first edition he says: “During the last 50 years, we have had 12 bull markets and 11 bear markets … The bull markets averaged going up about 100% and the bear markets, on the average, declined 25% to 30%.” And “the typical bull market lasted 3.75 years and the classic bear market lingered only nine months.”
Warning, while Wall Street assumes these bull/bear cycles will continue ad infinitum, they may be coming to a slow, painful end by 2050.
Stock market’s long bull-bear—cycle ending, long painful bear ahead
Plan for no growth or zero growth. Or worse, wake up, see why Wall Street, America and the world economy are in the early stages of a long era of “de-growth,” a reversal of economic growth and reduction in market growth as population growth puts increasing new stresses on natural resources, commodity inflation, unemployment, social unrest, disasters, wars.
And it’ll get worse. Fast. More and more savvy guys like Buffett agree.
Market Watch
North Korea in nuclear warning after UN rocket resolution
North Korea has reacted angrily to a UN resolution condemning its recent rocket launch, pledging to strengthen military and nuclear capabilities.
The Security Council unanimously passed the resolution, which also expanded existing sanctions, on Tuesday.
North Korea, in a statement early on Wednesday, pledged to bolster its "nuclear deterrent" and ruled out denuclearisation talks.
The resolution followed Pyongyang's successful December launch.
North Korea said the three-stage rocket put a communications satellite into space.
But its neighbours and the US said the move constituted a test of long-range missile technology banned under UN resolutions passed after Pyongyang's nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.'Extremely unfair'
The Security Council resolution was proposed by the US and backed by China, North Korea's closest ally and biggest trading partner.
It represented a compromise between the two nations, with the US pushing for new sanctions and China for a statement, rather than a resolution. Chinese support was a blow for Pyongyang, observers say.
Under the resolution - which pledged "significant action" if North Korea carried out a third nuclear test - North Korea's space agency, a bank and a number of trading companies and individuals were added to existing sanctions lists.
"This resolution demonstrates to North Korea that there are unanimous and significant consequences for its flagrant violation" of previous resolutions, said US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice.
Both South Korea and Japan welcomed the resolution, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calling it a "resolute action".
Chinese envoy to the UN Li Baodong, meanwhile, said Beijing believed "that action taken by the council should be prudent, measured, proportionate and conducive to stability".
North Korea responded swiftly, with a statement from its foreign minister carried by state news agency KCNA condemning the "extremely unfair" resolution as a violation of sovereign rights.
"We will take physical actions aimed at expanding and strengthening our self-defensive military forces, including nuclear deterrence," it said.
It also stated that there would be "no dialogue to discuss denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula", in an apparent reference to long-stalled six-nation talks aimed at ending Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.
In recent weeks reports from both the US and South Korea have described activity at North Korea's nuclear test sites, sparking concerns North Korea could be preparing for a third test.
Pyongyang has conducted two nuclear tests, the first in 2006 and the second in 2009.
The US and North Korea's neighbours fear Pyongyang's ultimate goal is to put a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile that could target the west coast of the US, but it is not believed to have mastered the technology yet.
BBC
Israel's top priority is stopping Iran gaining nuclear weapons says Netanyahu
THE top priority of the new Israeli government will be to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said shortly after his Likud-Beitenu list won a narrow election victory.
In a stunning setback, Mr Netanyahu's hard-line bloc fared worse than expected in a parliamentary election, exit polls showed, possibly forcing the incumbent Israeli leader to invite surprisingly strong moderate rivals into his government and soften his line toward the Palestinians.
But that did not stop Mr Netanyahu from outlining his post-election priorities for Israel.
"The government that we shall form will be based on five principles," he told supporters at a victory speech.
"The first challenge... to prevent a nuclear Iran," he said, referring to Tehran's civilian nuclear program, which Israel and much of the West sees as a guise for developing a weapons capability.
Throughout his nearly four-year term as premier, Mr Netanyahu has consistently said that preventing a nuclear Iran was his top priority. At the official launch of his reelection campaign last month, he reiterated that his "first mission as prime minister" would be that.
At a speech before the UN's General Assembly in September, Mr Netanyahu warned that if Iran continued work at the current pace, it could have the necessary material for a first bomb by mid-2013.
Israel has refused to rule out a military strike to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear arms, although analysts doubt it has the military capability to carry out an effective strike alone.
Mr Netanyahu noted the other principles of a new government he would form as stabilising the economy, striving for peace, leading to more egalitarian military and civilian service, and reducing the cost of living.
TV exit polls showed the hard-liners with about 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, a bare majority, and the counts could change as actual votes are tallied.
The unofficial TV results had Mr Netanyahu winning only 31 seats, though he combined his Likud Party with the far-right Yisrael Beitenu for the voting. Running separately four years ago, the two won 42 seats.
If they hold up through the actual vote counting, the unexpected results could be seen as a setback for Mr Netanyahu's tough policies. The coalition-building process could force him to promise concessions to restart long-stalled peace talks with the Palestinians.
Addressing cheering supporters earlier, Mr Netanyahu pledged to work for a broad-based government. Also he said, he would show "responsibility in striving for a genuine peace."
Mr Netanyahu made a quick phone call to a newcomer on Israel's political stage, Yair Lapid, whose centrist party debuted with a strong showing of 19 seats, making it the second-largest party after Mr Netanyahu's.
Nearly 67 per cent of Israel's 5.5 million eligible voters took part, more than in previous elections - apparently giving boosts to the centrists, especially Mr Lapid's new "Yesh Atid" or "There is a future" party.
Mr Lapid's surprise showing could make him a key Cabinet minister should he decide to join Netanyahu's government.
A Likud official said Mr Netanyahu phoned Mr Lapid after the results and told him, "We have the opportunity to do great things together."
Mr Lapid and other centrist parties have said they would not join Mr Netanyahu's team unless the prime minister promises to make a serious push for peace with the Palestinians. The moderates also want an end to the generous subsidies and military draft exemptions given to ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities.
"We have red lines. We won't cross those red lines, even if it will force us to sit in the opposition," said Yaakov Peri, a former security chief and one of Yesh Atid's leaders, told Channel 2 TV.
The conflicting positions of the various parties point up the difficulties facing anyone who tries to set up a coalition government in Israel. If Mr Netanyahu relies only on the religious and hard-line parties, it means constant fights with the opposition over social programs. If he tries to team up with the centrists, it means battles with the ultra-Orthodox over subsidies, as well as internal sniping over concessions to the Palestinians.
Some predicted Mr Netanyahu might even fail to form a government.
"Netanyahu's victory is a pyrrhic victory, and it is not clear he will be the next prime minister," said Israeli political analyst Yaron Ezrahi. "Netanyahu will face difficulty in constructing a viable coalition," Mr Ezrahi said, estimating the life span of the next Israeli government at no more than 18 months.
Mr Netanyahu has won praise at home for drawing the world's attention to Iran's suspect nuclear program and for keeping the economy on solid ground at a time of global turmoil.
But internationally, he has repeatedly clashed with allies over his handling of the peace process. Peace talks with the Palestinians have remained stalled throughout his term, in large part because of his continued construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.
Mr Netanyahu himself has only grudgingly voiced conditional support for a Palestinian state, and his own party is now dominated by hard-liners who oppose even this. A likely coalition partner, Naftali Bennett of the Jewish Home Party, which won 12 seats, has called for annexing large parts of the West Bank, the core of any future Palestinian state.
Palestinians viewed the election results grimly, seeing it as entrenching a pro-settlement government.
"Even if Netanyahu brings some centre-left parties to his coalition, he will continue building in the settlements, he said that clearly and that is what we expect him to do," said Mohammed Shtayeh, an aide to the Western-backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
In all, 32 parties ran in the election, and 11 won enough votes to enter parliament, according to the exit polls. Israelis vote by putting a slip with a party's initials into an envelope and dropping the envelope into a ballot box, so the process of counting all the votes by hand takes many hours.
Two hours after the polling stations closed, the official Election Commission had published results of only 60,000 votes out of about 3.5 million cast.
In a sign of the times, many Israelis advertised their voting choice by photographing their ballot slips and uploading them to Facebook.
The Australian
Global Unemployment Expected To Surpass 200 Million
After dropping for the past two years, global unemployment is on the rise again according to the International Labor Organization, a UN jobs watchdog. 2013 is expected to top 200 million unemployed for the first time with the epicenter in theadvanced economies as 28 million jobs have been lost since the onset of the crisis. Critically, for the globalists, they unsurprisingly note that macro imbalances have been passed on to the labor market to a significant degree.
Weakened by faltering aggregate demand, the labor market has been further hit by fiscal austerity programs in a number of countries, which often involved direct cutbacks in employment and wages, directly impacting labor markets. Far from the anti-cyclical response to the initial crisis in 2009 and 2010, the policy reaction has been pro-cyclical in many cases in 2011 and 2012.
Moreover, some 39 million 'discouraged' people have dropped out of the labor market as job prospects proved unattainable, opening a 67 million global jobs gap since 2007. However, regions that have managed to prevent a further increase in unemployment have experienced a worsening in job quality, as vulnerable employment and the number of workers living below or very near the poverty line increased. "These are people who,... have given up hope, ...and therefore they are not counted as unemployed but more as discouraged."
Global unemployment is on the rise once again - after two years of falling... and is expected to rise for the next two years at least...
One of the main drivers appears to be 'uncertainty'...
Many developed economies have seen a sharp rise in the unemployment rate mainly as a result of lengthening unemployment duration and rising long-term unemployment
But between 2007 and 2012, the biggest overall contributor to the decline in global employed-to-population ratio was a decline in labor force participation rates...
A modest silver lining perhaps is that there are signs of an emerging consumer working class in developing countries, potentially substituting for some of the consumption slowdown in advanced economies. With the crisis, however, progress in poverty reduction has slowed and could adversely affect growth of the emerging middle class. This will impact negatively on the capacity for developing economies to play a stronger role in supporting global economic activity and offer alternative engines of growth.
But of course, it is the youth unemployment that is most worrisome. So far, only Austria, Germany and Switzerland have managed to keep youth unemployment low. Some young people have started to return to or prolong education, to acquire new skills in order to improve their future labor market chances; others have dropped out completely or are increasingly frustrated in their job search without, nevertheless, returning to the education system.
This group of young people that is neither in employment, education nor training (NEET) has grown since the crisis, in particular among European crisis countries, and is expected to increase further as recessionary conditions continue to prevail in the Euro area.
Zero Hedge
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