Thursday, February 16, 2012
National debt will be $1 trillion higher in a decade
President Obama rolled out an election-year budget on Monday that would delay action to reduce the national debt in favor of fresh spending on Democratic priorities aimed at rebuilding the American middle class.
In his final budget request before facing voters in November, Obama called for $350 billion in new stimulus to maintain lower payroll taxes, bolster domestic manufacturing, lure jobs back from overseas, hire teachers, retrain workers and fix the nation’s crumbling infrastructure. There would be only modest trims to federal health-care programs and no changes to Social Security, the biggest drivers of future borrowing, despite last year’s raucous political debate over the federal debt.
Instead, Obama would reduce deficits by raising taxes by nearly $2 trillion over the next decade on corporations and the wealthy, in part by letting expire George W. Bush-era tax cuts on household income over $250,000 a year.
And the president is encouraging lawmakers to rewrite the tax code to eliminate the alternative minimum tax, which strikes many middle-class families, while requiring millionaires to pay at least 30 percent of their annual income to the Internal Revenue Service.
The $3.8 trillion spending request for fiscal 2013 would limit agency budgets according to limits agreed to during last year’s budget battles, forcing belt-tightening at the Pentagon and the lowest spending on domestic agencies as a percentage of the economy in at least a decade.
Obama said his proposal would save at least $4 trillion over the next 10 years and stabilize government borrowing. But Republicans blasted the budget as insufficient, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) deriding it as “a campaign document.”
Despite the savings, budget deficits would be markedly higher than they would under a debt-reduction plan Obama submitted to Congress in September, staying well above $600 billion a year for most of the next decade. The portion of the debt held by outside investors would climb to $18.7 trillion by 2021, or 76.5 percent of the overall economy — twice the size of the debt before the recession hit in 2007 and $1 trillion higher than the president’s September forecast.
Administration officials blamed that increase in large part on gloomier economic projections, which tend to depress tax collections, increase government spending and drive up deficits. Since the budget was prepared, job growth has proved stronger than expected, officials said, adding that the picture would look brighter today.
But White House economic adviser Gene Sperling said the administration added “our aspirations” to the $3.8 trillion request. New initiatives would increase 10-year deficit projections by about $350 billion. They include an extra $125 billion for road and rail projects, as well as permanently extending tax breaks that provide families up to $10,000 for college tuition and reward businesses for doing research in the United States.
In an unusually partisan budget message to Congress, Obama wrote that “reining in our deficits is not an end in itself” but “a necessary step to rebuilding a strong foundation so our economy can grow and create good jobs.” Drawing a sharp contrast with his Republican opponents, Obama said his approach “rejects the ‘you’re on your own’ economics that have led to a widening gap between the richest and poorest Americans.”
The Washington Post
Moody's warns may downgrade 17 global banks, securities firms
(Reuters) - Moody's warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.
It was reviewing the long-term ratings and standalone credit assessments of a range of banks, Moody's added. Markets were unaffected by the Moody's announcement.
"Capital markets firms are confronting evolving challenges, such as more fragile funding conditions, wider credit spreads, increased regulatory burdens and more difficult operating conditions," the ratings agency said in a statement.
It said among 17 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations, it might cut the long-term credit rating of UBS (UBSN.VX) (UBS.N), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) by as much as three notches following the review. It said the guidance was indicative.
Among the banks that might be downgraded by two notches are Barclays (BARC.L), BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), HSBC Holdings (HSBA.L), and Goldman Sachs (GS.N).
Bank of America (BAC.N) and Nomura (8604.T) were included in those that might be downgraded by one notch.
The U.S. rating agency said in a separate statement its action on 114 financial institutions from 16 European nations reflected the impact of the debt crisis and deteriorating creditworthiness of its governments.
It cited more fragile funding conditions, increased regulatory burdens and a tougher economic environment for its review of banks and securities firms with global reach.
Moody's salvo follows rounds of downgrades in European sovereign ratings as the euro zone's struggle to keep its weakest link Greece afloat has been driving up borrowing costs and straining finances of other nations.
Last Monday, Moody's cut the ratings of six European nations including Italy, Spain and Portugal and warned it could strip France, Britain and Austria of their top-level AAA grade.
Standard & Poor's cut France's and Austria's top ratings and downgraded seven other euro zone nations last month. It also cut the euro zone's bailout fund by one notch.
Moody's on Thursday also downgraded the insurance financial strength ratings (IFSR) by one or two notches of several insurance companies, which it said related to their investment and operating exposures to Spain and Italy.
These included Unipol Assicurazioni SpA (UNPI.MI), Mapfre Global Risks, Assicurazioni Generali SpA (GASI.MI) and Allianz SpA. It affirmed the IFSR of Allianz SE (ALVG.DE), AXA SA (AXAF.PA), Aviva Plc (AV.L) and their subsidiaries, but cut the outlook on the rating to negative from stable.
VICIOUS CIRCLE
Asian shares and the euro were weaker on Thursday on concerns about another delay in cementing a bailout for Greece. Traders said markets didn't not show any specific reaction to the Moody's announcement.
In its review of European financial institutions, Moody's said that once completed, the ratings would "fully reflect the currently foreseen adverse credit drivers."
European banks' bond holdings of struggling euro zone nations Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy have trapped Europe in a vicious circle.
The falling value of the debt puts pressure on banks, which in turn weighs on lending and economic activity, making it tougher to sustain the growth that governments badly need to shore up their finances.
The biggest single group among the 114 institutions under review were headquartered in Italy, followed by Spain, with more than 20 each. Nine were headquartered in Britain, 10 in France and 7 in Germany.
Moody's said nine of the 17 banks with global reach are included in the list of 114 financial institutions in Europe.
European Union leaders have been trying to put a financial "firewall" around the nations most afflicted by the euro zone debt crisis.
But jittery market sentiment suffered a fresh setback on Wednesday when several EU sources told Reuters that the euro zone was considering a delay in parts of a second bailout plan for Greece.
Moody's said that for 99 European financial institutions, the standalone credit assessments have been placed on review for downgrade. For 109 institutions, the long-term debt and deposit ratings have been placed on review for downgrade.
Here we go Again...
We had strong downgrades all across Europe and a total jettisoning of risk trades in Tuesday's session with the result that we had a sinking Euro and a surging Dollar. Overnight we learn that now China promises to join the money rain parade and pour its wealth into bailing out Europe to protect its export markets.
What do we get as a result of this? A complete reversal of the risk aversion trades with all the money that came pouring out of the markets Tuesday now turning around and flooding right back in again.
Up goes gold and silver after both sold off on Tuesday and up goes the Euro and down goes the US Dollar. Presto chango; wave that magic wand and all the woes of the financial world have just disappeared.
The promise of more bond purchases by China of European debt has sent the S&P 500 futures through very significant chart resistance at the 1350 in the Asian trading session. It looks like the drunken binge continues with no fears, no worries in sight now that China has become the lender of last resort. Apparently what the Central Banks could not do, China has.
I wonder how history is going to record all of this madness. I just hope we all live long enough to be able to tell what it was like living through it and watching it unfold day by day and week by week. No one from the future will likely otherwise believe that a generation of humanity was this ignorant. On the other hand, maybe it is those of us who actually believe DEBT is generally something to be avoided unless it is carefully managed and respected who are the fools here and those who just shrug it off as nothing to be concerned about are the truly wise among us.
Up is now down; down is now up; light is now darkness and darkness is now light; bitter is now sweet and sweet is now bitter. Welcome to the brave new world in which prosperity can be created by piling up massive loads of debt without the slightest bit of concern for how that debt will ever be repaid.
Trader Dan's Market Views
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)