Friday, November 18, 2011
Fitch: Italy 'already in recession'
"Italy is likely already in recession and the downturn in activity across the euro zone has rendered the task of the new government much more difficult," the ratings agency said in a statement.
Fitch, which downgraded Italy to A+ from AA- with a negative outlook last month, warned it would cut the country's ratings to the low investment grade category if it were unable to borrow at sustainable rates on the markets.
"Sustaining political and public support for structural reforms and austerity will be challenging in the face of rising unemployment. Convincing investors that the reforms will be effectively implemented and will boost economic growth over the medium term will be equally if not more challenging," it added.
Italy's borrowing costs hovered close to euro-era highs on Thursday, with yields on 10-year bonds touching 7.1pc early in the day - past the levels that forced its smaller neighbours Greece and Portugal to seek a bail-out.
The country has to refinance €312bn (£267bn) of debt next year. Fitch said Italian bond yields had risen to a level which, if protracted, would place public debt on an unsustainable path.
"In the event that the Italian government loses market access -- not Fitch's base case -- the ratings would be lowered, likely to the low investment grade category."
Italy's new prime minister, Mario Monti, said the euro zone's third-largest economy faces an emergency, and he promised sweeping but fair reforms to dig the country out of a major financial crisis.
Monti's government of technocrats must pursue fiscal and structural economic reforms but the downturn in Italy and Europe will complicate his job, Fitch said.
Analysts say Italy's 1.8 trillion euro public debt -- the third-largest in the world -- would overwhelm the euro zone's current financial defences if the country had to ask for help like its smaller EU partners did.
Italy's new prime minister, Mario Monti, said the euro zone's third-largest economy faces an emergency, and he promised sweeping but fair reforms to dig the country out of a major financial crisis.
Monti's government of technocrats must pursue fiscal and structural economic reforms but the downturn in Italy and Europe will complicate his job, Fitch said.
Analysts say Italy's 1.8 trillion euro public debt -- the third-largest in the world -- would overwhelm the euro zone's current financial defences if the country had to ask for help like its smaller EU partners did.
The Telegraph
Israel to employ high-tech weapons in Iran strike
Current and former US intelligence officials estimate that any Israeli attack on nuclear sites in Iran would go far beyond airstrikes from F-15 and F-16 fighter jets and likely include electronic warfare against the Islamic Republic's electric grid, Internet, cell phone network, and emergency frequencies for firemen and police officers.
The officials, who based their assessment on a US intelligence report published last summer, told the Daily Beast news website that Israel has been assembling a multibillion-dollar array of high-tech weapons that would allow it to jam, blind, and deafen Tehran's defenses in the case of a pre-emptive aerial strike.
According to the officials, one of the weapons Israel has developed is capable of mimicking a maintenance cell phone signal that commands a cell network to “sleep,” effectively stopping transmissions. The Israelis also have jammers capable of creating interference within Iran’s emergency frequencies for first responders, they told the Daily Beast.
The sources also said that in case of an attack on Iran, Israel would likely exploit a vulnerability that American officials detected two years ago in Iran's big-city electric grids, which are not “air-gapped”—meaning they are connected to the Internet and therefore vulnerable to a Stuxnet-style cyberattack.
One source told the Daily Beast that Israel has the capability to bring a denial-of-service attack to nodes of Iran’s command and control system that rely on the Internet.
According to the report, the likely delivery method for the electronic elements of this attack would be a drone the size of a jumbo jet.
The Daily Beast said Israel had already employed some of the technology at its disposal during its alleged aerial attack on aSyrian nuclear reactor in 2007.
Ynet
"Syrian military got a taste of this warfare when Israeli planes 'spoofed' the country’s air-defense radars, at first making it appear that no jets were in the sky and then in an instant making the radar believe the sky was filled with hundreds of planes," the report said.
A recent report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency suggested Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons. On Wednesday Defense Minister Ehud Barak caused a storm when told American broadcaster Charlie Rose he'd also seek nuclear weapons if he were Iranian.
Meanwhile, an Iranian website reported Thursday that "at least 36" members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed during last week's massive explosion at a military base outside Tehran. Initial reports said 17 people were killed in the blast.
One source told the Daily Beast that Israel has the capability to bring a denial-of-service attack to nodes of Iran’s command and control system that rely on the Internet.
According to the report, the likely delivery method for the electronic elements of this attack would be a drone the size of a jumbo jet.
The Daily Beast said Israel had already employed some of the technology at its disposal during its alleged aerial attack on aSyrian nuclear reactor in 2007.
Ynet
"Syrian military got a taste of this warfare when Israeli planes 'spoofed' the country’s air-defense radars, at first making it appear that no jets were in the sky and then in an instant making the radar believe the sky was filled with hundreds of planes," the report said.
A recent report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency suggested Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons. On Wednesday Defense Minister Ehud Barak caused a storm when told American broadcaster Charlie Rose he'd also seek nuclear weapons if he were Iranian.
Meanwhile, an Iranian website reported Thursday that "at least 36" members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed during last week's massive explosion at a military base outside Tehran. Initial reports said 17 people were killed in the blast.
Russia warships to enter Syria waters in bid to stem foreign intervention
Russian warships are due to arrive at Syrian territorial waters, a Syrian news agency said on Thursday, indicating that the move represented a clear message to the West that Moscow would resist any foreign intervention in the country's civil unrest.
Also on Friday, a Syrian official said Damascus has agreed "in principle" to allow an Arab League observer mission into the country.
Russia President Dmitry Medvedev, right, and Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, May 10, 2010.
Photo by: AP
But the official said Friday that Syria was still studying the details. The official asked not to be named because the issue is so sensitive.
The Arab League suspended Syria earlier this week over its deadly crackdown on an eight-month-old uprising. The 22-member body has proposed sending hundreds of observers to the country to try to help end the bloodshed.
The report came a day after a draft resolution backed by Arab and European countries and the United States was submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, seeking to condemn human rights violations in the on-going violence in Syria.
Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia were among Arab states that joined Germany, Britain, and France to sponsor the draft submitted to the assembly's human rights committee. In Washington, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. would sign on as a co-sponsor of the resolution.
The draft demanded an end to violence, respect of human rights and implementation by Damascus of a plan of action of the Arab League.
The move comes as clashes escalated in Syria and after Russia and China used their veto in October to block a Security Council resolution that would have condemned the Syrian government of President Bashir for the violence.
Such a veto is not applicable in the 193-nation assembly, which will consider the issue after the human rights committee reports back to it.
The UN says more than 3,500 people have been killed since unrest erupted in spring against Assad.
Haaretz
Iran trains Gazans to operate anti-tank missiles
IDF believes select group of Palestinian terrorists have undergone extensive military training in Islamic Republic.
A select group of Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip have undergone extensive military training recently in Iran, turning them into expert operators of sophisticated anti-tank missiles, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
The IDF believes that Hamas and Islamic Jihad have obtained several hundred advanced Russian-made antitank missiles – such as the Kornet and the Fagot – which have a range of more than 4 kilometers and are capable of penetrating armored personnel carriers and some IDF tanks.
Terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip had a small number of these missiles ahead of Operation Cast Lead – Israel’s offensive against Hamas in 2009 – but only used them in a handful of known instances.
“They were not trained well then, and as a result, the missiles were not effective,” a senior IDF officer explained this week. “Since then, the groups have significantly increased the stockpile and have also sent specific terrorists to Iran for extensive training where they became anti-tank missile experts.”
The level of expertise was demonstrated earlier this year when Hamas fired a Kornet anti-tank missile at a school bus near Nahal Oz, which killed 16-year-old Daniel Viflic.
The missile was fired from a distance of close to 3 kilometers and the operator had to fire in between the Gaza security fence and electrical cables. “He also had to hit the bus, which was not easily seen on the road,” the officer said, explaining the complexities of the attack as a demonstration of the level of expertise in Gaza.
The anti-tank missiles are obtained by Hamas in several different ways. In some cases, they are purchased directly from Russia by Syria and are then transferred to Hamas or Hezbollah.
In other cases, Hamas operatives buy the weaponry on the black market and then smuggle it into the Gaza Strip via the tunnels it maintains under the Philadelphi Corridor.
“The Gaza Strip is completely different today than what it was almost three years ago,” a senior defense official said. “The amounts of weaponry are significantly higher as well as the type of weaponry and its sophistication.”
In face of the threat, the IDF is moving forward with plans to install the Trophy active protection system on Merkava Mk 4 tanks that are in production ahead of their delivery to the 401st Armored Brigade. Two of the brigade’s battalions have already received the system and the remaining battalion will finish receiving it by the beginning of 2012.
The Trophy system creates a hemispheric protected zone around armored vehicles such as the Merkava tank, which operated prominently in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Using advanced radar, the system is designed to detect and track a threat and counters it with a launched projectile that intercepts the anti-tank missile.
Jerusalem Post
Police in Northern Ireland consider using mini drones
Police aerial surveillance in Northern Ireland may be about to take on a whole new form - one that belongs more to the world of sci-fi and the future.
The PSNI is considering the use of mini drones to combat crime and the dissident republican threat.
They are not the large missile carrying drones used by the US military.
It is understood the models being considered are small enough to fit into a rucksack and can be assembled and deployed within minutes.
Aeryon Labs, the Canadian manufacturers of one of these unmanned aerial vehicles, known by the military as UAVs, say it snaps together as easily as children's building blocks.
It might look like a toy - but it's anything but.'Game-changing'
It is fitted with a camera that automatically tracks a subject, can relay live pictures back to the operator, has a three kilometre range and flies at ground speeds of 50 kilometres an hour.
The UAVs are described as game changing technology - policing from the sky. Indeed, one source told me they could act as modern day watch towers.
Security sources say border areas like south Armagh are where the use of the technology would be most valuable because they can cover large areas at a fraction of the cost of a helicopter.
They are not so easy to use in built-up urban areas, where they're also governed by tighter regulations.
Because of potential risks to other aircraft and people on the ground, the Civil Aviation Authority must grant permission for UAVs to take to the skies.
The CAA has confirmed to the BBC that it has already had discussions with the PSNI about possible drone deployment.
The drones, or UAVs, used by law enforcement agencies around the world, have already been deployed by some UK police forces.River crash
But there have been problems. A drone used by police in Liverpool crashed into the river Mersey. In addition there were red faces when police discovered they hadn't obtained the necessary CAA permission.
At a time when policing budgets are under pressure, there is a strong economic argument for their deployment.
The latest police helicopter cost £7m when it was bought last year.
Adding up the figures, maintenance, fuel and pilot salaries, running the police's fleet of three helicopter costs over £1.5m every year.
A police drone could cost at most £150,000 and, powered by batteries and able to remain airborne for up to seven hours, the running costs are substantially lower.
In a statement to the BBC, the PSNI said it constantly reviews the availability of new equipment and technology but at this stage has no immediate plans to buy any UAVs.
Earlier this year, the police were given a quarter of a billion pounds of additional funding to combat the threat from dissident republicans.
If the police decide to deploy UAVs, they have the option of using some of this special security fund, or finance the purchase from the normal policing budget.
BBC
With MF Global Money Still Missing, Suspicions Grow
Nearly three weeks after $600 million in customer money went missing from MF Global, the search for the cash has been hampered by the bankrupt brokerage firm’s sloppy record-keeping, an increasingly worrisome situation that has left regulators frustrated and customers in the lurch.
The round-the-clock effort has consumed an alphabet soup of federal regulators and criminal investigators, with lawyers sleeping at open desks and each agency commandeering a different conference room at the firm’s offices. But as authorities comb through some 38,000 customer accounts, they are growing more suspicious about what went wrong at MF Global, the commodities powerhouse once run by Jon S. Corzine, the former Democratic governor of New Jersey.
“The lost money is sort of like a lost child,” said Bart Chilton, a Democratic member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “Every day that passes is more and more concerning, and there’s less and less hope.”
At a bankruptcy hearing on Wednesday, a lawyer for the trustee overseeing the liquidation of the brokerage house would not speculate on the matter, acknowledging simply that the money was still missing.
After MF Global filed for bankruptcy in late October, hundreds of examiners descended on the firm’s New York and Chicago offices. Since then, they have been poring over records, verifying customer accounts and interrogating the skeleton staff that remains.
The futures commission is heading the search in the futures business for the missing $600 million, armed with at least 15 accounting and enforcement staff members on site in New York. The Securities and Exchange Commission is focusing on a separate MF Global unit, as workers report back to bosses in Washington in twice-daily conference calls. Federal prosecutors in New York and Chicago have issued subpoenas, according to one person with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
As part of the effort, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has taken the lead in the interviews of former employees who can explain MF Global’s inner workings. The federal authorities have also taken control of an off-site emergency recovery system, where e-mail and phone records from MF Global were stored, said two people who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
Authorities are particularly focused on the final days of MF Global. In the run-up to the bankruptcy filing, clients withdrew their assets, trading partners closed out trades and others demanded more collateral.
Amid the flurry of activity, MF Global failed to register all the transactions in its books. Regulators must now reconstruct the ledger, dollar by dollar.
“The volume and pace of trading activity that occurs at a brokerage firm undergoing a crisis of confidence makes it almost impossible to keep up,” said David Pauker, managing director at Goldin Associates, who oversaw the restructuring of Refco, another failed brokerage. “A large backlog inevitably results.”
As regulators carve out distinct parts of the investigation, James Giddens, the trustee, is taking a broader perspective. Called in shortly after the firm filed for bankruptcy, Mr. Giddens, who is charged with returning customers’ funds, quickly hired the accounting firm Deloitte to create a claims process for customers and Ernst & Young to scour the firm’s books. All told, the trustee has amassed a team of more than 200 to unwind the firm, in addition to the roughly 200 MF Global employees who were kept on the job.
CNBC
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