The way I see it, the reason for the crisis is to move all the way up the oil and to establish one block against Israel on the region.....which by the way it will lead to Ezekiel 38.
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Monday, January 31, 2011
Lonely Analyst Warns of 2015 Bank Crisis Amid `Upbeat' Davos
As politicians, executives and financiers networked at parties and panels last week in Davos, Switzerland, Barrie Wilkinson was in a nearby hotel, warning that a 2015 financial catastrophe may be looming.
“The fundamentals haven’t been addressed at all,” Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman, said in an interview at the Hotel Morosani Schweizerhof. “The things that caused the previous crisis -- loose monetary policy andtrade imbalances -- they’re actually bigger now than they were then.”
In the caste system of the World Economic Forum’s annual event in the Swiss ski resort, Wilkinson was at a bottom rung, with an identification badge that denied him access to most sessions and soirees. His message clashed with the optimistic tone of many at the center of the meeting, who were eager to emphasize the progress made after two years of hand-wringing in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
“The systemic reforms that have been accomplished are significant,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said as he left a private meeting with finance company chief executive officers on Jan. 29. “We need to communicate better that financial institutions globally are operating on a very different basis today, that they are operating with higher capital and are better regulated.”
‘An Avoidable History’
Wilkinson’s report, titled “The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History,” isn’t so sanguine. The 24-page study describes how banks, unwilling to accept the lower returns on equity, or ROEs, that result from higher capital requirements, may fuel a new bubble by chasing high returns in commodities or emerging markets. Regulators, by focusing their restraints on banks, may drive risk-taking into unregulated funds that also pose danger to the system.
UBS Advice
Oliver Wyman, a subsidiary of New York-based Marsh & McLennan Cos., played a role in the last financial crisis. The firm’s strategy consultants advised UBS AG’s fixed-income unit, which was lagging other divisions in early 2007, to invest in U.S. mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations to boost returns, according to a review submitted by UBS to Switzerland’s federal banking commission in April 2008. Those investments helped fuel almost $58 billion in losses and writedowns at the Zurich-based bank.
After the 2008 crisis, governments and central banks spent unprecedented amounts of taxpayer money to bail out the financial system. Part of Wilkinson’s concern is that if the system is allowed to return to its old boom-bust habits, debt- strapped governments may not be able to handle the fallout of another crisis, either financially or politically.
“If there is another banking crisis, the Western governments are just in no shape to stabilize the system, they’ve expended their entire arsenal on the last round of fiscal injections,” Wilkinson said.
MORE:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/lonely-analyst-warns-of-2015-bank-crisis-amid-upbeat-davos.html
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Japan Downgrade
Good thinking Peter.....
If Japan have been downgrade and the States owe money to them, then what sould be the United States GRADE??????
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If Japan have been downgrade and the States owe money to them, then what sould be the United States GRADE??????
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
The impact of the change of government in Egypt
Egypt is the only ally of Israel in the Middle East, despite his people to oppose the Israeli presence in the region as well as other Muslim countries.
It is predictable that Mr Mubarak's government to collapse and be replaced by a Muslim government cut is truly the only chess piece that is needed for countries that Ezekiel 38 and 39 predicte to ally against Israel and attacked.
Last year we saw within months Israeli ally Turkey ex change of position and is now head of a furt opposition against Israel in the region.
Jordan the other country that has maintained a neutral line with Israel, now also faces popular revolts and the same son of the king has expressed his contempt for Israel and its desire not to comply with the covenants that his father did to them.
We're seeing are true words of Ezekiel profect and the Bible is really open in front of our very eyes.
May the Lord give us strength and courage in these times of conflict have uncertainty.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
China devalues US buying power by 30%, Protects US Treasury Holdings
The trade imbalance between the US and China, a hot button between the nations for the last decade or so, is finally going to start to stabilize in the summer of 2011. However, it is doing so with a de facto devaluation of the US dollar and its buying power. The average American will see a spike in the price of everything from their favorite jeans and T-shirts, to the cost of some electronics.
The Chinese have decided to devalue the US dollar’s buying power, without devaluing the US Treasury holdings they hold. It is an elegant solution to their issues. It will be interesting to see if they can pull it off, while they try to prop up the European Sovereign debt markets at the same time.
The Chinese are attempting, successfully so far, to introduce the Yuan as a global currency in which to settle international trade. China is pumping into its own internal currency markets so much liquidity, they need an export market to develop for the Yuan or their own internal markets will overheat.
So China is going to start offering Yuan based savings accounts, to westerners as a vehicle in which to park capital. While this is a test case only, one might expect Yuan based accounts to be offered around the world sooner rather than later.
If western investors take to Yuan based cash accounts as a way to try and gain an increase in value, the transition will drive the western banks to be more proactive in adding convertibility into their systems. To start, they are offering these Yuan accounts at three US based branches.
The US Dollar devaluation will come in the form of an increase in the prices of all products. In reality it will represent the uniform cost push effects of inflation. The US can expect it on all Chinese based products of one form or another. The timing of the change is set to arrive with the products on the US shores in the summer of 2011.
“They’re going to go home with 35 percent less product than for the same dollars as last year,” particularly for fur coats and cotton sportswear, said Bennett Model, chief executive of Cassin, a Manhattan-based line of designer clothing. “The consumer will definitely see the price rise.”
China has no choice at this stage, but to pass on the cost of raw inflation to its customers. The era of cheap Chinese imports is over. The real impacts of higher commodity costs are going to push into the economy at different levels.
The weather impact on Australia has not hit the Chinese manufacturing capacity yet, but you can expect that diesel will increase significantly in the coming weeks, as China draws upon the world’s spare capacity to fuel their economy this spring.
The US had warned China to adjust its currency peg with the US, or suffer the consequences. Those consequences are now being going to be return to the US shores as expensive imports of dubious quality.
However, not all nations or economist agree with the stance the US is taking. Robert Mundell, Nobel Prize winning economist, and the proverbial father of the Euro, feels that the US is pushing China too hard in this regard.
Robert Mundell, Professor of Economics, Columbia University, said: “It’s a mistake to have China change the exchange rate. This is a bad way of changing something.
“A big appreciation in China would create deflation, aggravate poverty in the western part of the country, in the rural areas. It would be something that would in the long run come back to haunt China.”
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Without Egypt, Israel will be left with no friends in Mideast
THe fading power of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government leaves Israel in a state of strategic distress. Without Mubarak, Israel is left with almost no friends in the Middle East; last year, Israel saw its alliance with Turkey collapse.
From now on, it will be hard for Israel to trust an Egyptian government torn apart by internal strife. Israel's increasing isolation in the region, coupled with a weakening United States, will force the government to court new potential allies.
Israel's foreign policy has depended on regional alliances which have provided the country with strategic depth since the 1950s. The country's first partner was France, which at the time ruled over northern Africa and provided Israel with advanced weaponry and nuclear capabilities.
MORE:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/without-egypt-israel-will-be-left-with-no-friends-in-mideast-1.339926
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Thousands protest in Jordan
Aljazeera
Thousands of people in Jordan have taken to the streets in protests, demanding the country's prime minister step down, and the government curb rising prices, inflation and unemployment.
In the third consecutive Friday of protests, about 3,500 opposition activists from Jordan's main Islamist opposition group, trade unions and leftist organisations gathered in the capital, waving colourful banners reading: "Send the corrupt guys to court".
The crowd denounced Samir Rifai's, the prime minister, and his unpopular policies.
Many shouted: "Rifai go away, prices are on fire and so are the Jordanians.''
Another 2,500 people also took to the streets in six other cities across the country after the noon prayers. Those protests also called for Rifai's ouster.
Members of the Islamic Action Front, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and Jordan's largest opposition party, swelled the ranks of the demonstrators, massing outside the al-Husseini mosque in Amman and filling the downtown streets with their prayer lines.
King Abdullah has promised some reforms, particularly on a controversial election law. But many believe it is unlikely he will bow to demands for the election of the prime minister and Cabinet officials, traditionally appointed by the king.
Rifai also announced a $550 million package of new subsidies in the last two weeks for fuel and staple products like rice, sugar, livestock and liquefied gas used for heating and cooking. It also includes a raise for civil servants and security personnel.
Record deficit
However, Jordan's economy continues to struggle, weighed down by a record deficit of $2bn this year.
Inflation has also risen by 1.5 per cent to 6.1 per cent just last month, unemployment and poverty are rampant - estimated at 12 and 25 per cent respectively.
Ibrahim Alloush, a university professor, told the Associated Press that it was not a question of changing faces or replacing one prime minister with another.
"We're demanding changes on how the country is now run," he said.
He also accused the government of impoverishing the working class with regressive tax codes which forced the poor to pay a higher proportion of their income as tax.
He also accused parliament as serving as a "rubber stamp'' to the executive branch.
"This is what has led people to protest in the streets because they don't have venues for venting how they feel through legal means," Alloush said.
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U.S. 2011 deficit to hit $1.48T
WASHINGTON — The U.S. budget deficit this year will jump nearly 40% over prior forecasts, mostly due to the mammoth tax-cut package brokered by President Barack Obama and lawmakers last month, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
The CBO said the fiscal 2011 deficit will hit US$1.48-trillion, up from last August’s US$1.07-trillion estimate, which was crafted before Bush-era tax rates were extended at a cost of US$858-billion over 10 years.
The CBO “estimates that the act (renewing tax cuts) will increase the deficit by US$390-billion in 2011, by US$407-billion in 2012 and by US$120-billion in 2013,” according to the report.
While a deficit of nearly US$1.5-trillion in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 would be an all-time record in dollar terms, as a percentage of the overall economy it would be slightly below the US$1.41-trillion deficit in the 2009 fiscal year.
The US$1.48-trillion deficit, CBO said, would be about 9.8% of GDP, higher than the 8.9% of GDP in 2010, but below the 10% in 2009.
The new forecast is part of a semi-annual economic review by the CBO, the nonpartisan budget analyst for Congress.
The latest CBO estimates could exacerbate a deeply partisan debate in Congress and with Obama over the best way to tackle the US$14-trillion federal debt.
Some Republicans looked at the CBO report as further evidence of the need to cut federal spending, ignoring the impact of the tax-cut extension.
“Today’s CBO projections underscore what Republicans have been telling the Obama administration and its allies in Congress: The pursuit of a big government agenda is reckless, irresponsible and unsustainable,” said Representative Tom Price.
More:
http://www.financialpost.com/2011+deficit/4173549/story.html
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European Council Union....Debt Union
It´s GREAT when you listen a thinking man in the middle of this mess!!!!!
Nigel Farage you have MY RESPECT.
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PM's Address to the Knesset Marking the International Holocaust Remembrance Day
Have the lessons of the Holocaust been learned?
For us, the Jewish people, the answer is yes.
For the rest of the world, the answer is no.
The lesson that we have learned is evident in our standing here, in our sovereign state, in our capital city.
The most crucial lesson we learned from the Holocaust is that we needed to restore our people to our own state, with an army and the capacity for self-defense.
This lesson was understood by Herzl even before the great atrocity, which he foresaw, took place. And we implemented it.
But there is another lesson. At the end of the Holocaust, there were 11 million Jews left in the world. Before it, there were 18 million. Even at a very slow rate of natural increase of the population, there should have been almost 30 million Jews in the world today, but in fact, there are only 13.5 million; millions fewer than expected. This deficit is not the result of physical loss, but of loss of identity and assimilation.
The only place where the Jewish people has enjoyed substantial, welcome growth is here, in the State of Israel. There is no nation that could live on a demographic pin head. Therefore, alongside cultivating our country, we must continue to bring Jewish people to Israel, as well as preventing their assimilation abroad. The projects that we operate – Birthright, MASA and Moreshet – are aimed at young Jewish adults in Israel and abroad, and this is an essential element in assuring our future.
MORE:
http://www.pmo.gov.il/PMOEng/Communication/PMSpeaks/speechshoa260111.htm
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Thursday, January 27, 2011
Positive ID announced that it has completed the development of its temperature-sensing microchip
Microchip Will Integrate With PositiveID's Wireless Body(TM) Platform to Provide Early Warning at the Onset of an Illness
Solutions of Malaga, Spain . The microchip, which uses radio frequency identification (RFID) technology, is able to measure internal temperature within the body and communicate that temperature wirelessly to an external reader. The Company plans to integrate the temperature-sensing microchip with its Wireless Body™ platform.
As previously announced in November 2010 , PositiveID teamed up with RFID Solutions, an advanced technical development group with innovative automated manufacturing and expertise in specialized requirements for sensors in RFID markets, to develop the temperature-sensing microchip for use in humans.
The Company expects its Wireless Body platform will continue to evolve with the addition of other bio-sensing capabilities, including glucose-sensing through its GlucoChip™, which is currently under development. The Wireless Body will be designed to enhance wellness and disease management, for diabetes and other chronic illnesses, by allowing healthcare systems to communicate with each other and deliver solutions to patients seamlessly.
The Wireless Body communication system is built on the Company's Patent No. 7,125,382 for an Embedded Bio-Sensor System.
About PositiveID Corporation
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Marc Faber: Gold, Silver prices to soar in 2011
LONDON (Commodity Online): Global investing legend Marc Faber says exposure of investors to gold and silver compared to other commodities is very low. Therefore, price of gold and silver can go to higher levels in 2011 thanks to the low investor base for these precious metals.
Faber who is the publisher and editor of the famous Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, says gold and silver continue to be under-owned, despite the fact that the prices of these two precious metals have been zooming in the last one year.
Here is Faber’s outlook for 2011 on gold, silver, other commodities, emerging markets, bonds and equity markets:
Commodities: Faber likes energy companies since the long-term trend in oil is up, as supply fails to keep up with surging demand from emerging markets. Notes that emerging markets have surpassed the developed world in oil consumption and that this trend should keep demand strong for the foreseeable future. Faber likes the majors like Exxon, Hess, and even Chesapeake as natural gas is too cheap on an inflation adjusted basis. Continuing the energy theme, coal and uranium stocks should be gradually accumulated on weakness as the world looks for alternative sources of reliable energy. Peabody on the coal side and Cameco for uranium should outperform over the next few years.
Gold and Silver: Faber reiterates his favorable opinion on gold and silver. Doubts they are currently in a bubble as some analysts postulate. Faber notes that investor exposure is very low when you look you compare it to the world’s financial wealth, meaning that gold and silver are still under-owned and have room to run.
Equity Markets: Faber believes a correction is imminent for the stock market as bullish sentiment (AAII sentiment) nears record levels and mutual fund cash positions remain very low. Furthermore, the latest upward move in stocks has occurred on declining volume, which is usually bearish from a technical point of view. The correction should occur in January. That being said, you should be buying into the correction as it represents a good buying opportunity. Faber prefers energy companies and speculative stocks such as home builders and even AIG. He goes on to say that the third year of a Presidential cycle is very good for speculative stocks versus traditional blue chip value plays.
Emerging Markets: While he is very bullish long-term on emerging markets, investors should avoid (or at least lighten up on) emerging market stocks right now. They should only be bought on corrections which would represent favorable entry levels. Overall, Faber thinks the SP 500 will outperform emerging markets in 2011. The only emerging market that looks attractive right now is Vietnam (VNM).
Bond Market: Reiterates his bearish long-term view on US Treasuries, but notes that they are currently oversold and could be a good trade at this point (TLT). But this would only be a short-term bounce as rates have likely bottomed and higher inflation will erode future returns.
Japan Equities: While everyone is still bearish on Japan, Faber likes Japanese equities and thinks they have the potential for more upside. In particular, he likes Japanese financials such as Nomura and Mizuho Financial.
Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
Image: Euro Pacific Capital
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we're in a housing double-dip.
Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we're actually through this.
But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.
From Peter Schiff (in the WSJ, emphasis ours):
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.
Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-schiff-home-prices-2010-12#ixzz19tOzDuIC
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Syrian foreign minister welcomes incoming US ambassador
Incoming US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, has met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem and showed him the letter of appointment that he will soon present to Syrian President Bashar Assad, the SANA news agency reported.
According to the report, the two spoke about strengthening the ties between Damascus and Washington. In 2005, then-US President George Bush recalled the previous ambassador, Margaret Scobey, following a suspicion that the Syrian administration is behind the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. (AFP)
Report: Mubarak’s Wife and Son Flee to London amid Protests
The wife of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and their son Gamal, considered the successor to his father as president, have fled to London with 97 suitcases after unprecedented massive protests in Egypt, an Arab website reported. Egyptian officials denied the claim.
The plane also reportedly carried Gamal's daughter, the Akhbar Arab website reported. It also said a Twitter account was blocked to prevent a social network campaign to urge the ousting of Mubarak, who is over 80 and is reportedly is suffering from cancer.
Dozens of Twitter messages have been sent saying that Mubarak’s wife Suzanne was identified at Heathrow Airport in London, where she and her son and granddaughter arrived in a private jet.
MORE:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/141969
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Rep. Wolf Threatens to Vote Against Debt Ceiling Increase
Virginia Rep. Frank Wolf threatened Thursday to oppose raising the country's $14.3 trillion debt limit, becoming one of the first members of Congress to draw a line in the sand over the looming vote.
The Republican congressman declared on the House floor that he would vote "no" on the measure -- unless it's tied to balancing the budget.
"When Congress is asked to increase the statutory debt limit, which will likely happen in the next few months, I will vote no, unless, and let me be completely clear here, there is a firm commitment to deal with the larger issue or the vote itself is tied to a plan to put America on a path to financial responsibility," Wolf said.
MORE:
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Blair: West must prepare to confront Iran with force
Former British PM says 'we have to get our head out of the sand' because Islamic Republic 'disagrees fundamentally with our way of life and will carry on unless met with determination and, if necessary, force'
Ynet
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair urged the West to be prepared to confront Iran with force in order to face the "looming and coming challenge" from Tehran, French news agency AFP reported on Saturday.
"It (Iran) has to be confronted and changed. Iran is a looming challenge. It is negative and destabilizing. It supports terrorists," Blair said Friday at the Chilcot inquiry, the British inquiry into the war in Iraq.
"I say this to you with all of the passion I possibly can -- at some point the West has to get out of what I think is a wretched policy or posture of apology for believing that we are causing what the Iranians are doing, or what these extremists are doing," said Blair, who serves as the Quartet envoy to the Middle East.
"We have to get our head out of the sand. They disagree fundamentally with our way of life and will carry on unless met with determination and, if necessary, force."
Blair added that he could see the "impact and the influence of Iran everywhere."
Iran and six world powers meet again in Istanbul Saturday amid stiff resistance by Tehran to demands for discussion of its nuclear activities that could be used to make weapons.
Tehran denies that it wants nuclear arms, insisting it wants only to make peaceful nuclear energy for its rising population. But concerns have grown - because its uranium enrichment program could also make fissile warhead material, because of its nuclear secrecy and also because the Islamic Republic refuses to cooperate with UN attempts to investigate suspicions that it ran experiments related to making nuclear weapons.
While the six want the two-days of talks focused at freezing Iran's uranium enrichment program, Tehran has repeatedly said this activity is not up for discussion. Instead, Iranian officials are pushing an agenda that covers just about everything except its nuclear program: global disarmament, Israel's suspected nuclear arsenal, and Tehran's concerns about US military bases in Iraq and elsewhere.
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